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  • CMP : 7,134.5 Chg : 73.0 (1.03%)
  • Target : 4,310.0 (16.49%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 Nov 2022

Steady performance amid structurally levers to grow

About The Stock

Eicher Motors (EML) is the market leader in the >250 cc premium motorcycle segment (market share ~85%+) through its aspirational models under the Royal Enfield (RE) brand, such as Bullet, Classic, Interceptor among others.

  • Via its JV with Volvo i.e., VECV (EML has 54.4% stake), the company has presence in the CV space as well (6.6% FY22 market share)
  • Strong net cash positive b/s with healthy return ratios metrics
Q2FY23

Eicher posted a steady performance in Q2FY23

  • Consolidated revenues were at ₹ 3,519 crore, up 3.6% QoQ
  • Reported EBITDA margins came in at 23.3%, down 112 bps QoQ
  • Consequent consolidated PAT was at ₹ 657 crore, up 7.6% QoQ
What should Investors do?

EML price has grown ~4% CAGR over last five years (from ₹3,055 levels in Nov 2017), in line with the broader Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY amid broadening of customer base with launch of affordable offering in premium segment; strong new product launch pipeline, gross margin expansion on the anvil (Q3FY23) & CV cyclical recovery underway.
Target Price and Valuation

We value EML at ₹ 4,310 on SOTP basis; assigning 34x PE to RE business & 30x PE to VECV business on FY24E numbers.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Dominant position in >250cc segment & likely beneficiary of premiumisation trend amidst healthy response to Hunter 350 (lucrative price point offering by RE at ₹1.5 lakh/unit, ex-showroom) & increasing global presence, we expect RE volumes to grow at CAGR of 27% over FY22-24E
  • With CV cyclical upswing domestically, CV volumes at VECV are expected to grow at 25% CAGR by FY22-24E amidst focus toward healthy profitability
  • Eyeing for increasing global market presence (in mid-weight category) with new product launched in >350cc segment like “Super Meteor 650”
  • With levers in place margins/RoCE are seen at 26.1%/21.6% by FY24E
Alternate Stock Ideas

In our auto OEM coverage, we also like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 9,797.1 9,153.6 8,720.4 10,297.8 7.9 14,034.0 15,597.3 23.1
EBITDA 2,903.1 2,180.3 1,781.3 2,172.2 0.0 3,427.1 4,104.3 37.5
EBITDA Margins (%) 29.6 23.8 20.4 21.1 - 24.4 26.3 -
Net Profit 2,202.8 1,827.5 1,346.9 1,676.6 0.1 2,709.1 3,323.6 40.8
EPS (₹) 80.8 67.0 49.3 61.3 - 99.1 121.6 -
P/E 45.8 55.2 75.1 60.3 - 37.3 30.4 -
RoNW (%) 24.8 18.3 11.8 13.3 - 18.8 20.1 -
RoCE(%) 27.8 17.3 11.3 13.3 - 20.0 21.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2FY23 Results:

  • Consolidated revenues for Q2FY23 was at | 3,519 crore up 3.6% QoQ. ASPs at Royal Enfield (RE), were down 5.7% QoQ to ~| 1.61 lakh/unit. RE sales volumes were at ~2.08 lakh units, up 11% QoQ.
  • EBITDA for the quarter was at | 822 crore with margins at 23.3%, down 112 bps QoQ. The company reported ~154 bps gross margin decline (amid adverse product mix) and was partially offset by operating leverage gains (primarily savings realised in employee costs as a % of sales, down 40 bps).
  • Consolidated PAT was at | 657 crore, up 7.6% QoQ. The company’s share of profit from VECV JV stood at | 44.1 crore

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The company achieved highest ever revenue & EBITDA for a quarter amidst healthy festive season and continued on its path to become global affordable brand in mid-range segment.
  • Eicher continues to dominate >350cc space with >85% market share and within >125 cc (even though it is not present in 125 cc or 150 cc segments) it increased market share from 26% in H1FY22 to ~30.2% in H1FY23
  • The company’s’ recent launch Hunter 350 is witnessing good response from consumers & is witnessing increasing trend in enquiries. Further company achieved milestone of producing 50,000 units of Hunter 350. Further company recently unveiled Super Meteor 650 at EICMA 2022 and is already getting queries about bookings.
  • Company during Sept-Oct 22 witnessed highest ever festive retails for the quarter in both domestic as well as foreign markets.
  • Management informed about company leading Mid Weight segment with ~10% global market share & ranking no 1 in UK & among top 3 in European region. Company has ~7%, 9%, 10% market share in America, APAC, EMEA regions respectively.
  • On the domestic CV industry, management guided that >3.5 ton trucks grew 68% YoY in H1FY23 & in October 2022 it grew by ~15% (despite higher base). However, sales are still below FY18-19 peak.
  • VECV bus market share stood at ~24-26% in H1FY23, LD trucks market share stood at 28-30%. Also company stood at number One in dealer profitability according to study conducted by FADA.
  • Management informed about first time buyers going up post launch of hunter 350 from 13% earlier to 18.2% now.
  • Management informed about Hunter 350 bringing in additional volumes and not cannibalising sales of existing portfolio.
  • Management informed about its existing product line ready for OBD phase 2A norms and would require minor modification with minimal cost impact, whereas for Phase 2B norms which are supposed to come in effect from April 2025 it is working upon the same

  • Management expects decline in commodity costs to start benefiting from Q3FY23 onwards

  • Company took price hike of ~3,000 in Hunter 350 model starting Nov’22. Also customers are preferring higher priced variant within Hunter series

  • Management guided that domestic Truck demand to remain healthy amidst replacement demand picking up, MoM dip in sales is temporary & seasonal, whereas industry is well positioned for growth over 2-3 years.

Disclaimer

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