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  • CMP : 7,061.5 Chg : -60.0 (-0.84%)
  • Target : 3,650.0 (15.69%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Hunter 350 to propel volume growth over FY22-24E…

About The Stock

Eicher Motors (EML) is the market leader in the >250 cc premium motorcycle segment (market share ~90%) through its aspirational models under the Royal Enfield (RE) brand, such as Bullet, Classic, Interceptor among others.

  • Via its JV with Volvo i.e., VECV (EML has 54.4% stake), the company has presence in the CV space as well (6.6% FY22 market share)
  • Strong net cash positive b/s with healthy return ratios metrics
Q1FY23

Eicher posted a healthy operational performance in Q1FY23

  • Consolidated revenues were at ₹ 3,397 crore, up 6,4% QoQ
  • Reported EBITDA margins came in at 24.5%, up 75 bps QoQ
  • Consequent consolidated PAT was at ₹ 611 crore, flat QoQ amid lower other income primarily on account of MTM loss on investments
What should Investors do?

EML stock price has largely been flat over last five years amid muted volume trajectory, underperforming the broader Nifty Auto index.

  • We upgrade EML from HOLD to BUY amid affordable offering in premium segment (Hunter 350) thereby supporting volume growth over FY22-24E
Target Price and Valuation

We value EML at ₹ 3,650 on SOTP basis; assigning 30x PE to RE business & 30x PE to VECV business on FY24E numbers.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With attractive pricing for Hunter 350 (lowest price point offering by RE at ₹1.5 lakh/unit, ex-showroom), network optimisation & increasing global presence, we expect RE volumes to grow at a CAGR of 22% over FY22-24E
  • With CV cyclical upswing domestically, CV volumes at VECV are expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% FY22-24E amidst market share gains
  • Overall on a consolidated basis, we expect net sales to grow at a CAGR of 22.1%. With operating leverage gains & stable input costs, margins are seen improving to 26.1% with consequent RoCE placed at ~21% by FY24E
  • Continues to be net cash positive b/s with positive CFO generation
Alternate Stock Ideas

In our auto OEM coverage, we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,550

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 9,797.1 9,153.6 8,720.4 10,297.8 7.9 13,673.4 15,364.1 22.1
EBITDA 2,903.1 2,180.3 1,781.3 2,172.2 0.0 3,378.7 4,004.6 35.8
EBITDA Margins (%) 29.6 23.8 20.4 21.1 - 24.7 26.1 -
Net Profit 2,202.8 1,827.5 1,346.9 1,676.6 11.4 2,705.4 3,285.3 40.0
EPS (₹) 80.8 67.0 49.3 61.3 - 99.0 120.2 -
P/E 39.0 47.1 64.0 51.4 - 31.9 26.3 -
RoNW (%) 24.8 18.3 11.8 13.3 - 18.7 19.7 -
RoCE(%) 27.8 17.3 11.3 13.3 - 19.6 20.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q1FY23 Results:

  • Consolidated revenues for Q1FY23 was at | 3,397 crore up 6.4% QoQ. ASPs at Royal Enfield (RE), were up 1% QoQ to ~| 1.71 lakh/unit. RE sales volumes were at ~1.87 lakh units, flat QoQ
  • EBITDA for the quarter was at | 831 crore with margins at 24.5%, up 75 bps QoQ. The company reported ~30 bps gross margin expansion which were aptly supported by lower other expense which were down 80 bps QoQ
  • Consolidated PAT was at | 611 crore, flat QoQ. The company’s share of profit from VECV JV stood at | 33.8 crore vs. our estimate of | 41.5 crore

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The company achieved highest ever revenue & EBITDA and continued on its path to become global affordable brand in mid-range segment with consistent channel expansion
  • Eicher continues to dominate >350cc space with >85% market share and within >125 cc (even though it is not present in 125 cc or 150 cc segments) it increased market share from 32.9% in Q4FY22 to ~36% in Q1FY23
  • The company’s’ recent launch Hunter 350 is witnessing good response from journalists all across the world largely due to unique ergonomics, price point
  • Eicher through VECV arm supplied its first E-Bus to Chandigarh state transport undertaking and is running with 90%+ uptime. Also during the quarter Volvo launched its new 9600 platform bus in India with factory fitted seats offering comfort equivalent to business class. It has received order of 120 electric buses from Surat state transportation undertaking
  • During the quarter, the company booked | 40 crore as incentive from state and suffered ~| 120 crore MTM loss on investments
  • Retail network was at 2,132 outlets in Q1FY23 vs 2,118 in FY22 with new outlets opened in Kuala-lampur, Mexico, etc. in international markets
  • EML expects raw material cost inflation to stabilise, going forward, particularly in base metals
  • The management expects New Hunter 350 to bring in volumes and attract price sensitive buyers which liked RE brand but were not able to afford or didn’t liked its usual riding stance
  • VECV’s market share in Low & Medium Duty trucks was at 27.7%, high duty trucks stood at 7.4% and for Bus stood at 28.6% vs 17-18% in the past. Also the company added 29 retail outlets for VECV during the quarter
  • Price hike in Q1FY23 was at | 3,000 for <350 cc & ~|5,000 for >350cc segment

Disclaimer

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