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eClerx Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,383.7 Chg : 12.75 (0.54%)
  • Target : 1,735.0 (15.90%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

05 Feb 2023

Growth moderation in near term, pipeline continues to be strong…

About The Stock

eClerx Services (eClerx) provides business process management, automation and analytics services.

  • It caters to financial services, communications, retail, media, manufacturing, travel and technology companies
  • OCF to EBITDA of >80%, debt free and RoCE of >20%
Q3FY23 Results

eClerx reported steady revenue growth in Q3FY23.

  • Revenues increased 3.2% QoQ in CC terms
  • EBITDA margins marginally declined by ~50 bps QoQ to 29.6%
  • Added one client in US$10+mn client list
What should Investors do?

eClerx’ share price has grown by ~1.5x (adjusted bonus) over the past five years (from ~₹ 1007 in February 2018 to ~₹ 1497 in February 2023).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value eClerx at ₹ 1,735 i.e. 14x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Traction in customer care, RPA, analytics & content development, cross sell and up sell to Personiv clients to drive growth
  • Lower roll-offs, improving deal wins and revival in growth are expected to drive revenues
  • Expect dollar revenues to grow at 11.6% CAGR in FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from eClerx, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Key beneficiary of growth in digital technologies and exposure to growth segments like healthcare & BFSI

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4,920

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net sales 1,437.5 1,564.5 2,160.3 10.2 2,720.7 2,973.5 3,203.2 14.0
EBITDA 323.5 464.5 696.8 8.3 767.4 856.6 955.6 11.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.5 29.7 32.3 - 28.2 28.8 29.8 -
Net Profit 209.0 282.8 417.4 3.3 518.0 550.3 615.4 13.8
EPS (|) 57.3 81.3 121.6 - 104.3 110.8 123.9 -
P/E 26.2 18.4 12.3 - 14.4 13.5 12.1 -
RoNW (%) 16.0 18.8 26.6 - 29.3 27.8 27.8 -
RoCE (%) 19.9 23.3 34.9 - 36.7 35.1 35.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue in CC & US$ term grew 3.2% QoQ to US$85.1 million (mn) while in rupee terms, revenue grew 5.6% QoQ to | 686.7 crore
  • The company reported that its offshore revenue (81.2% of mix) increased 4.3% QoQ while onshore revenue (19.8% of mix) declined 1.1% QoQ. BPaas (managed services) revenue (26% of mix) increased 3.2% QoQ
  • Geography wise Europe (20.4% of mix) reported growth of 5.2% QoQ while US (71.1% of mix) reported growth of 2.2% QoQ
  • EBITDA margin declined ~50 bps QoQ to 29.6%. eClerx indicated that margins declined due to higher sub-contractor cost & higher SG&A expenses
  • The company reported other income of | 17.8 crore during the quarter and PAT of | 131 crore, up 4.1% QoQ with corresponding PAT margin of 19.1%
  • Top five (40% of mix) & Top 10 (59% of mix) customers declined 2.9% & 0.6% QoQ while YoY the growth moderated to 2.6% & 12.6%, respectively. Emerging clients reported strong growth of 9.1% QoQ & 21.5% YoY
  • The company during the quarter added one client in US$10+mn revenue bucket taking the total clients to eight
  • eClerx, during the quarter, added 535 net new employees taking the total employee count to 16,804. The company’s attrition during the quarter declined 480 bps QoQ to 32.3% while its utilisation improved marginally by 90 bps to 74.7%
  • The company added that it is expecting some moderation in the CY23 performance due to softness seen in the near term. eClerx mentioned that it normally has a visibility for the next three to six months and its assessment is for a similar time period while the long term demand outlook is stable. The company added that the demand pipeline remained robust for its offerings but it is seeing slower decision making from clients, which is likely have an impact on revenue conversion. eClerx also indicated that this slowness is broad based and not specific to any client, geography or vertical. The company also indicated there are certain cost pressures the clients are facing. As a result of the same, decision making has been on the slower side
  • The company also added that though its offering, especially on the offshore side, can help in automation as well cost savings for clients, the situation could be a little more dampener this time. eClerx also mentioned its growth depends on the US and Europe geographies and since the clients are growing through stress there, the clients are reviewing their spends. eClerx also indicated that on a YTD basis, its revenue growth in FY23 is in the range of 18-19%, which is already a deceleration compared to the same period for FY22 numbers. IT may see some moderation. The company also indicated that earlier it guided for 3-4% QoQ growth for the medium term but that number could be lower at least for the few quarters. eClerx also mentioned that services that it provides in terms of analytics, consulting are valuable to the clients since they have been delivered in the most cost-effective manner. Hence, it does not see quarterly growth to be much below the indicated range of 3-4%
  • The company also mentioned it is open to M&A opportunity for growth as valuation correction is visible currently and it is evaluating a few options. eClerx also indicated that its preference for the targeted entity would be on offshore side of the business supporting European & North America geography
  • The company indicated that to tackle the visible softness, it is working on: i) it will continue to make investments in capabilities such as KYC, logistics, analytics, marketing automation, etc, ii) it will continue to make investment in talent especially in sales, consulting and onsite capabilities, iii) it will strengthen its delivery team, iv) make some tuck in acquisitions for enhancing capabilities and accelerating growth
  • As far as top 10 clients are concerned, the company mentioned that it has seen a cut down of spends by a couple of clients due to high inflation scenario on the onshore side. eClerx also mentioned that impact of this pullback was 1% of revenue for Q3 and it is in active conversation with the clients. It is confident of recouping the same in the next quarter and expects a steady performance from top 10 clients in CY23. The company also said it is seeing normal roll offs in CY23 and not seeing anything abnormal at this moment. The impact of the same is already baked in the outlook
  • The company indicated that SG&A expenses for the quarter were higher partly due to Personiv payout, which falls under SG&A expenses. eClerx indicated that it is largely done with the payout for the year including | 21 crore paid in Q1 and it does not anticipate any major payout in Q4 except some top up, if required. The company indicated that it is likely to be at lower end of their EBITDA margin guidance of 28-32% in FY23. eClerx also indicated that other income for Q3 also includes | 5.46 crore of one-time income coming from re-assessment of lease agreement for its offices in Airoli (where the company had offices in two buildings, now it has vacated the old building and taken additional two floors apart from existing three floors in the new building). The company also mentioned that margins in Q4 will be higher despite i) one-time other income gain going away in Q4 (the company include other income in EBITDA margin calculation); ii) some increase in marketing and travel expenses due to the tailwinds of: i) lower sub-contractor’s costs, which was elevated in Q3 due to subcontractors hired in the quarter for the Europe region due to demand in high luxury segment ii) utilisation improvement. The company also indicated that it does not see any major benefit from rupee depreciation since currency realisation is based on the hedge rate and not spot rate. The company also added that current SEZ regulation are valid till December 2023. Currently, 45% of its employees are working from office. Any change in this regulation i.e. more working from office is likely to increase housekeeping and facility expenses
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue         686.7         559.2           22.8         650.3              5.6  Revenue grew by 3.2% QoQ in CC & dollar terms 
Employee expenses         360.2         273.8           31.5         346.3              4.0  
             
Gross Profit         326.5         285.3           14.4         304.0              7.4  
Gross margin (%) 47.5 51.0 -348 bps 46.7 80 bps  
SG&A expenses         135.9         107.5           26.4         122.6            10.8  
             
EBITDA 208.4 182.1           14.4 202.2              3.0  
EBITDA Margin (%)           29.6           32.3  -274 bps            30.1 -55 bps Margin impacted due to higher sub-contractor cost & higher SG&A expenses
Depreciation & amortisation 29.9 26.4           13.2 27.4              9.2  
EBIT         178.5         155.7           14.6         174.9              2.1  
EBIT Margin (%)           26.0           27.8  -185 bps            26.9 -90 bps  
Other income (less interest) 17.8 4.3         312.5 20.9           (14.8) Other income include one time gain on re-assessment of lease agreement
PBT 173.1 144.9 19.5 169.7 2.0  
Tax paid 41.9 38.4             9.4 43.8             (4.1)  
PAT 131.0 106.6 22.9 125.8 4.1  

Disclaimer

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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