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  • CMP : 1,498.5 Chg : 2.60 (0.17%)
  • Target : 1,640.0 (17.14%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

12 Nov 2022

Expects strong double digit growth in FY23; announces buyback at | 1900/share

About The Stock

eClerx Services (eClerx) provides business process management, automation and analytics services.

  • It caters to financial services, communications, retail, media, manufacturing, travel and technology companies
  • OCF to EBITDA of >80%, debt free and RoCE of >20%
Q2FY23 Results

eClerx reported strong Q2FY23 results.

  • Revenues increased 4.6% QoQ in CC terms
  • EBITDA margin increased ~92 bps QoQ to 30.1%
  • The company announced buyback at ₹ 1900 per share
What should Investors do?

eClerx’ share price has grown by ~1.6x (adjusted bonus) over the past five years (from ~₹ 857 in November 2017 to ~₹ 1400 levels in August 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value eClerx at ₹ 1,640 i.e. 14x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Traction in customer care, RPA, analytics & content development, cross sell and up sell to Personiv clients to drive growth
  • Lower roll-offs, improving deal wins and revival in growth are expected to drive revenues
  • Expect dollar revenues to grow at 12.9% CAGR in FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from eClerx, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Key beneficiary of growth in digital technologies and exposure to growth segments like healthcare & BFSI
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4,370

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net sales 1,437.5 1,564.5 2,160.3 10.2 2,654.3 2,951.6 3,238.4 14.4
EBITDA 323.5 464.5 696.8 8.3 748.2 850.2 950.3 10.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.5 29.7 32.3 - 28.2 28.8 29.3 -
Net Profit 209.0 282.8 417.4 3.3 492.2 523.1 584.5 11.9
EPS (|) 57.3 81.3 121.6 - 99.1 105.3 117.7 -
P/E 24.5 17.2 11.5 - 14.1 13.3 11.9 -
RoNW (%) 16.0 18.8 26.6 - 28.0 26.7 26.8 -
RoCE (%) 19.9 23.3 34.9 - 36.0 34.7 35.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue in US$ term grew 3.7% QoQ to US$82.5 million (mn) while in rupee terms, revenue grew 5.3% QoQ to | 650.3 crore. In CC terms, the company reported growth of 4.6% QoQ
  • The company reported that its offshore revenue (80% of mix) increased 5.5% QoQ while onshore revenue (20% of mix) declined 3.1% QoQ. eClerx indicated that decline in onshore revenue could be due to its revenue from CLX Europe being impacted by cross currency effect. BPaas (managed services) revenue (26% of mix) declined 0.2% QoQ. The company indicated that it expects BPaas to perform strongly in H2 as usually growth picks in Q3 and Q4 (FY21 was an exception due to Personiv acquisition) on account of pending work transactions. As per management it also requires some time to convince clients to move from FTE based pricing to managed services pricing and hence growth generally comes with a lag
  • Geography wise North America (72% of mix) led revenue growth by 6.6% QoQ while RoW (8% of mix) grew 4.5%. Europe region (20% of mix) declined 5.5% QoQ. The company indicated that Europe region (CLX Europe) was impacted due to cross currency impact
  • EBITDA margin increased ~92 bps QoQ to 30.1%. The company indicated that margins increased due to higher dollar revenue, operating efficiency & currency gains
  • Other income of the company remains high consecutively for the second quarter due high revaluation income due to US$INR currency depreciation. The company reported other income of | 20.9 crore including revaluation income of | 15.3 crore
  • eClerx indicated that its pipeline remains strong but it is witnessing some slowdown in decision making on the client side due to macroeconomic headwinds it is facing. The company mentioned that it (i.e. slower decision making) is largely factored in the current growth rate of 3-4% quarterly which has come down from 5-6% quarterly growth rate in FY22. eClerx also indicated that it does not expect growth to come down materially from this level i.e. 3-4% quarterly, unless major roll offs which is not in the vicinity (clients terminate contracts with 30-60 days of buffer). The company indicated strong double digit growth for FY23 mentioned that the outlook for FY24 will become clear in Q4 when clients discuss their budgets for CY23
  • The company indicated that 70-75% of its business is in the non-discretionary space (annuity) while rest 25-30% is discretionary in nature. eClerx also mentioned that large part of its business is skillset based wherein it provides expertise on various subject matters. Hence, customer stickiness is also higher as 80%, 60% of its revenue comes from the firms, which are their clients for over five to 10 years
  • The company indicated that Personiv growth in the quarter was similar to company’s growth and it forms just over 10% of its business as on Q2FY23. On the CLX Europe operations, the company indicated that its expects strong demand in luxury brand but is witnessing some slowdown in small retailers & industrial clients. However, the company indicated that it forms small part of its business
  • On the BFS front the company indicated that it expects growth momentum to continue as it works in regulatory & compliance related services and trade lifecycle which is driven by volatility & complexity. The company further indicated that most of its works are in the critical segment and it does not expect any slowdown in the BFS segment. The company further indicated that none of its clients in the banking sector are under financial stress barring few small clients
  • In the call centre/customer care business the company indicated that it foresees good demand in the short-medium term despite the business evolving to its next phase of text & email based model
  • On the margins front the company had guided for EBITDA margin (including other income) at the lower band of 28-32% and the company continue to maintain its EBITDA margin guidance for FY23. The company further indicated that cooling of attrition from Q3 onwards, increase in utilisation, easing of return to work in SEZ will be tailwinds for achieving the guided EBITDA margin with possible headwind in form of INR/USD appreciation
  • Top five (42% revenue contribution) & Top 10 (61% revenue contribution) customers reported growth of 11.9% & 20.2% on a YoY basis, respectively. The company also indicated that its emerging client’s revenue grew by 17.1% YoY. The company had earlier indicated that it wanted its emerging client’s revenue to grow faster pace than its top clients to reduce the client concentration & it indicated that its efforts are bearing fruits
  • The company during the quarter added five clients to US$1-3 mn revenue bucket list. eClerx indicated that it is easier for it to scale up the revenue from clients in the lower bucket list compared to US$3mn+ bucket list. The company also indicated it expects the top client growth to remain steady
  • The company’s net addition during the quarter was weak with net addition of 98 taking the total headcount to 16,269 due to front loading Q2 addition in Q1. eClerx indicated that the additions were lower as it was carrying high bench strength due to aggressive hiring in last fiscal year in anticipation of demand & high attrition it was facing. The company further indicated that it expects attrition to taper off from Q3 onwards and it will focus on improving its utilisation due to which the hiring was low. eClerx also mentioned that in case of increased demand it can do elevated hiring as it has certain flexibility in its business model depending on demand
  • The company’s attrition during the quarter increased 750 bps QoQ to 37.1%. However, eClerx indicated that it is witnessing attrition moderating from Q3 onwards. The company’s utilisation level improved marginally by 50 bps QoQ to 74.9%. eClerx indicated its utilisation level can be further improved as its bench strength gets billable. It is focusing on improving the utilisation level to its comfort level of 77-78%
  • The company indicated that it had formulated an internal policy wherein it will payout 50% of the profits back to the shareholders in form of dividend & buybacks. eClerx indicated that this policy was formulated as it does not want to keep cash idle in the books apart from its acquisitions, capex & opex requirements. In lines of the same policy the company announced a buyback of 15,78,947 shares at the price of | 1,900 per share for a total buyback value of | 300 crore through tender route
  • The company also said it is actively looking for inorganic opportunities and is seeing more opportunities now. eClerx indicated that it is exploring acquisitions in the areas of financial services- buy side services, digital analytics, product marketing, customer operations, services to telecoms. However, it mentioned that since opportunities that it is exploring are still not at its desired valuations level it will wait for some more time
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue         650.3         523.3           24.3         617.8              5.3  Revenue grew by 4.6% QoQ in CC terms, driven by top 10 clients strong growth 
Employee expenses         349.4         260.1           34.3         334.1              4.6  
             
Gross Profit         300.9         263.1           14.3         283.7              6.0  
Gross margin (%) 46.3 50.3 -402 bps 45.9 34 bps  
SG&A expenses         119.4           98.3           21.5         118.7              0.6  
             
EBITDA 202.3 166.6           21.4 187.0              8.2 Margin improved due to operating leverage
EBITDA Margin (%)           30.1           31.7  -159 bps            29.2 92 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 27.4 25.2             8.9 24.9            10.1  
EBIT         174.9         141.4           23.7         162.1              7.9  
EBIT Margin (%)           26.9           27.0  -13 bps            26.2 66 bps  
Other income (less interest) 20.9 1.7   21.9             (4.8) Other income lower QoQ due to lower revaluation income on FX assets
PBT            170            157             8.2            135            25.5  
Tax paid 43.8 34.6           26.6 36.0            21.7  
PAT         125.9            101           25.0            121              4.4  

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