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Dwarikesh Sugar Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 72.7 Chg : -0.30 (-0.41%)
  • Target : 150.0 (30.43%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

02 Aug 2022

Robust numbers despite high cost of production…

About The Stock

Dwarikesh Sugar (DSL) is a UP based sugar company with sugar crushing capacity of 21500 TCD, distillery capacity of 337.5 KLD & co-generation capacity of 91 MW. The company commissioned 175 KLD distillery in June 2022 at its Bareilly plant with the investment of Rs 230 crore.

  • The company would be able to increase distillery volumes to 11 crore litre in FY24 from 5.6 crore litre in FY22
Q1FY23 Results

Posted strong results aided by sugar exports, ethanol volumes.

  • Sales was up by 64.8% YoY, driven by 71.9% growth in sugar sales
  • EBITDA was at Rs 76.6 crore, up 30.8% YoY, with margins at 11.8%
  • Consequent PAT was at Rs 39.7 crore (up 46.5% YoY)
What should Investors do?

DSL’s share price has gone up 73% in the last five years (from Rs 66 in August 2017 to Rs 115 in August 2022).

  • We expect 44.5% CAGR in distillery sales, which would boost earnings growth with CAGR of 32% during FY22-24E for the company
  • We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 150, valuing the business at 10x FY24 PE.

Key triggers for future price performance
  • Distillery revenue to grow at 44.5% CAGR in FY22-24E with 2x increase in ethanol volumes and 3% increase in distillery realisation led by higher proportion of B-heavy & sugarcane juice ethanol
  • Higher exports aided by rising global sugar prices, sugarcane diversion towards ethanol led to industry wide 8 MT inventory reduction since 2019 (may further fall by 1.0 MT by September 2022), leading to firm sugar prices
  • With increasing profitability & reduction in sugar inventory, the company would be able to generate cumulative Rs 410 crore free cash flows in the next two years. It would completely de-leverage the balance sheet
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Dalmia Bharat Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • It is fastest in utilising B-heavy & sugarcane juice to produce ethanol. Distillery volumes to grow 1.8x to 22 crore litre by FY24. The company is aggressively exporting sugar & utilising higher global white sugar prices

We value the stock at Rs 490/share with a BUY recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 1,336.2 1,838.9 1,974.1 10.6 2,174.1 2,279.8 - 7.5
EBITDA 136.1 201.3 290.8 1.2 310.4 430.0 - 21.6
EBITDA Margin % 10.2 10.9 14.7 - 14.3 18.9 - -
Net Profit 73.5 91.5 155.2 -0.1 181.7 270.3 - 32.0
EPS (Rs) 3.9 4.9 8.2 - 9.6 14.4 - 32.0
P/E 29.5 23.7 14.0 - 11.9 8.0 - -
RoNW % 15.2 15.8 23.1 - 21.2 25.5 - -
RoCE (%) 9.0 14.4 20.6 - 20.4 30.3 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1FY23 Results: Strong distillery volumes aiding profitability

  • Revenues witnessed growth of 64.8% to Rs 646.5 crore led by splendid growth of 71.9% in sugar & 42.2% growth in distillery segment
  • Sugar segment sales growth has been led by 58.7% increase in sugar volumes aided by sugar export of 50,000 tonnes. Domestic sales quota was also up 7% to 1.03 lakh tonnes (lt). Total sugar sold during the quarter was 1.53 lt. Domestic sugar realisation was up 7.6% to Rs 34.6/kg YoY
  • Distillery sales growth of 42.2% was led by 21.9% growth in ethanol volumes & 2.6% growth in realisation. It sold 1.56 crore litre of ethanol with average realisation of Rs 59.1/litre. The growth in ethanol volumes was driven by full utilisation level of existing distillery capacities whereas realisation was up due to higher proportion of B-heavy ethanol
  • Power sales saw dip of 7.1% to Rs 66.5 crore. Power sales volumes was lower by 15% to 2.8 crore units whereas power tariff improved from Rs 3.2 / unit to Rs 3.3 /unit
  • The 7.5% increase in sugarcane prices in 2021-22 sugar season & lower sugar recoveries (20-25 bps lower) resulted in almost Rs 3/kg increase in cost of production. Operating profit grew 30.8% to Rs 76.6 crore mainly on account of increase in distillery sales. Interest cost was down 19.6% to Rs 11 crore due to lower working capital requirement. This led to the net profit growth of 46.5% to Rs 39.7 crore
  • The company has commissioned its 175 KLD new distillery during the quarter. This would take the company’s total distillery capacity to 335 KLD (11 crore litre per annum). We believe the company would be diverting 10% its sugarcane towards sugarcane juice from 2022-23 sugar season. It would continue to maintain sugar inventories at optimum levels and, in turn, reduce working capital requirement
  • The company is holding sugar inventory of 1.33 lt valued at Rs 31.79/kg compared to 2.54 lt valued at 29.2/kg in the corresponding quarter
  • Long term debt for the company is Rs 306 crore, which includes Rs 252 crore taken for distillery projects. Working capital debt as on June 2022 is nil. The entire debt is at a concessional interest rate
  • The current season inventory would be exhausted by October 2022 given July & August domestic quota is already 0.37 lt each
  • The company is changing sugarcane variety in its catchment area given Co-0238 variety is not prone to red-rot disease. In 2022-23 season, 15% of the sugarcane crushing by company would consist of newer varieties and in next three years ~70% of the variety would be replaced by newer variety (15023 & 14121 are new sugarcane varieties)
  • The company would be undertaking expansion in refined sugar from January 2023 onwards and new refinery capacity would be commissioned in November-2023. This would improve sugar realisation for the company given 30% of its total sugar production would be high quality refined sugar
  • The company witnessed lower sugar recovery during the 2021-22 sugar season due to excess rains in October-21 in one of its plant’s catchment area & impact of red-rot in similar areas. The company would try to improve sugar recoveries in 2022-23 season
  • Income tax provisioning for FY23 and FY24 would be closer to 30% given the company has MAT credits available. In FY25, it would be moving to a lower income tax regime
  • Given sugar production in 2022-23 season is also likely to be very high of 35.5 MT (after diversion of 4.5 MT), the government is also likely to announce export policy for next year in September 2022
  • Ethanol blending in the country has reached 10.17%. OMCs have contracted for 445 crore litre out of the total requirement of 459 crore litre for 2020-21 (December – October). Out of this total, OMCs have lifted 283 crore litre of ethanol till July 17, 2022. The government has also declared incentives for ethanol supply from June-November 2022 to the tune of Rs 1-2/litre depending on the feedstock (B-heavy, sugarcane juice)

Dwarikesh is one of the most efficient sugar companies with best sugar recovery, abundance sugarcane availability & optimum distillery capacity. With the commissioning of new distillery capacity, we believe the company would be able to generate ~30% of its revenue from distillery segment in FY24E, which would drive the profitability in next two years. The higher diversion of sugarcane towards ethanol is likely to result in lower working capital requirement. The company is undertaking capex for sugar refinery, which would improve its sugar export realisation going forward. With the expected optimum sugar inventory in the country (~5.5-6.0 million tonnes), domestic sugar prices are likely to remain firm above Rs 35 /kg in FY23. We believe sustainable growth for sugar companies on the back of increasing ethanol blending would result in multiple re-rating, going forward. Sugar stocks are trading at attractive multiples after recent correction. We maintain our BUY rating with a revised target price of Rs 150/share (earlier Rs 145).

Terms & conditions and Other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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