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Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd>
  • CMP : 8,451.7 Chg : 41.35 (0.49%)
  • Target : 3,055.0 (11.29%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Jan 2023

Weak topline dents Q3 print…

About The Stock

About the stock: Dixon Technologies is India’s leading electronic manufacturing (EMS)    provider and one of the largest beneficiaries of the government’s PLI scheme.

  • Dixon operates in both original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and original design manufacturing (ODM)
  • Strong RoE, RoCE at ~20%, ~24%, respectively (three year’s average)
Q3FY23 Results

Revenue growth takes a hit, margins on track of recovery.

  • Revenues declined ~22% YoY to ₹ 2404.7 crore as a result of a sharp decline by ~39% each in revenues of consumer electronics & lighting products. Mobile and EMS segment revenue also declined 2.6% YoY
  • Gross margin improved 263 bps YoY owing to a better product mix and price hikes in some categories. As a result, EBITDA margin improved 127 bps YoY to 4.6% supported by better operating leverage and cost optimisation measures
  • PAT grew ~12% YoY to ~₹ 52 crore on account of better EBITDA
What should Investors do?

Post the recent price correction, Dixon’s share price has given a negative return of ~26% in the past five years (from ~₹ 3700 in January 2018 to ~₹ 2745 levels in January 2023).

Target Price and Valuation

We introduce our FY25E estimates. We roll over our valuation on FY25E and value Dixon at 35x P/E FY25E EPS and revise our target price to ₹ 3055.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The Indian EMS industry is valued at ~$23.5 billion. Dixon currently has a market share of ~3-4%, which leaves an opportunity to expand and grow
  • Domestic mobile production is set to grow 5x to ₹ 10.5 lakh crore by FY26 under the PLI scheme. Dixon is one of the main beneficiaries
  • New segments like electronics/IT products, telecom products and LED lights & AC component to drive future revenue growth for Dixon
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab India in our coverage.

  • Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a three-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3380

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Yr CAGR (22-25E)
Net Sales 4,400.1 6,448.2 10,697.1 0.3 12,241.0 17,878.4 22,151.5 0.3
EBITDA 223.1 286.5 379.1 0.3 485.5 724.3 917.8 0.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 5.1 4.4 3.5 - 4.0 4.1 4.1 -
Net Profit 120.5 159.7 190.3 0.3 240.1 404.3 525.2 0.4
EPS (|) 20.6 27.3 32.1 - 40.4 68.1 88.5 -
P/E (x) 133.4 100.7 85.6 - 67.9 40.3 31.0 -
RoE (%) 22.3 21.7 19.1 - 24.6 31.7 31.0 -
RoCE (%) 26.3 23.5 17.7 - 22.0 27.9 29.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Weak topline performance drags overall growth…

  • Revenues declined ~22% YoY to | 2404.7 crore due to a sharp decline in revenues of consumer electronics, lighting products and mobile & EMS segments
  • Consumer electronics (TVs) revenue declined ~39% YoY to | 864 crore as a result of an early Diwali season in FY23 as well as lower realisation due to a significant reduction in open cell prices
  • The mobile & EMS revenues declined 2.6% YoY to | 915 crore as a result of subdued demand from the company’s anchor customer, Motorola
  • Home appliances revenues increased ~36% YoY to | 244 crore led by healthy order book and new customer additions
  • Lighting revenues declined ~39% YoY to | 263 crore as a result of lower realisation due to a reduction in commodity prices and migration of technology
  • Security system revenues grew 5.1% YoY to | 118.4 crore in Q3FY23 led by increase in orders of set up boxes
  • The overall EBITDA margin improved 127 bps YoY as a result of better gross margin, improved operating leverage and cost optimisation measures

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Business Outlook:

  • The management has cut its FY23 revenue guidance by 20% to ~| 12,000 crore citing lower mobile revenues. However, FY24E revenue guidance has been maintained at ~ | 19000 crore led by client additions and new product launches
  • The management expects to close FY23 at ~4% EBITDA margin
  • The company is aiming to reduce its debt by additional | 50 crore before March 2023 and save ~| 22 crore interest annually. This would help in EBITDA margin recovery, going forward
  • ODM accounted for 24% of sales in 9MFY23 and 48% of operating profits come from the ODM business
  • According to the management, there is an opportunity of additional 1 million TV sets over the next one to one-and-a-half years as ~65% of the TVs sold in India are on the Google and Android platform
  • Dixon has started construction at its 20-acre land in Noida where it is creating a capacity of 1.2 million DC refrigerators under various sizes of 190 litres to 235 litres. The management expects trial production of refrigerators to begin from Q2FY24

Consumer Electronics Segment:

  • Volumes in this segment declined 17% YoY as a result of early Diwali in FY23 as well as significant correction in prices of open cell in the international market
  • Dixon has received the ODM sublicensing rights from Google relating to Android and Google TV, which is likely to open up opportunities. The same will be rolled out from Q1FY24E. The company is also setting up an injection moulding plant in this category, which would be operational by Q4FY23
  • According to the management, Dixon will achieve ~20% volume growth in this segment in FY23 against 2.9 million volume achieved in FY22. Volume growth in this year will be led by new customer acquisitions and a larger share of pie of some of its anchor customers

Lighting products segment:

  • Revenue from this segment was impacted in Q3 as a result of reduction in commodity prices and freight rates as well as migration of technology
  • Operating margin for the lighting segment came in at 9.1% supported by a combination of reductions in input prices, calibrated pricing actions and inventory planning
  • The company is entering new product categories such as strips and rope lighting, which will be launched in March 2023
  • Dixon has on boarded a new export customer in the UAE and has executed an order for this customer in Q3. The company has also received orders for lighting products in Q4
  • Dixon has completed the technology acquisition of Bluetooth mesh technology and work-in-progress for Wi-Fi-based technology with a smart lightning from Ibahn Illumination, a smart lighting company. The new products will be launched in Q1FY24
  • Dixon has started making investments under the PLI scheme for LED lighting components. The company’s plant in Dehradun for LED lighting components will be operational in March 2023

Home Appliances Segment:

  • The operating margin for home appliances segment came in at 10.3% led by passing on the impact of commodity cost and exchange rate fluctuations to customers, improved operating leverage and cost optimisation measures
  • Dixon has ~160 SKUs in the semi-automatic category ranging from 6 kg to 14 kg with annual capacity of 2.4 million. In the fully automatic category, the company has a capacity of 6 lakhs with 96 variants across 6.5 to 11 kg with Bosch as its anchor customer. Apart from Bosch, Dixon also manufactures machines for Lloyd, Croma, TCL and Sharp. The management is targeting more than 100% growth in this business in FY24
  • According to the management, the order book in this segment is healthy. The company will be introducing more designs with new features in both categories viz. semi and fully automatic washing machines

Mobile and EMS Segment:

  • Revenue from this segment was impacted in Q3 as volume offtake for Motorola was lower
  • The management expects to achieve ~| 4000 crore in this segment against ~| 5000 crore stated earlier
  • Dixon has received large orders from Nokia for manufacturing phones
  • The company is working on two large customer acquisitions in this vertical, both of which will be closed in Q4FY23. Both these customers are likely to add ~| 6,000 crore to revenues annually
  • Dixon has hired a senior person as its R&D head for mobile phones from a branded mobile company

Security systems segment:

  • According to the management, the order book in this segment is healthy and the company will be expanding its capacity from 10 million units per annum to 14 million units per annum
  • Airtel is Dixon’s anchor customer in this segment
  • The company’s new facility in Noida for hybrid set-top box and other telecom products became operational in December 2022. Dixon supplied ~600,000 ONT to Airtel since this facility became operational
  • Dixon has received a large order of HD set-up boxes from Airtel. The production is expected to begin by Q2FY24
  • The company has also received orders for android set-up boxes in partnership with a global ODM
  • Through its joint-venture with Rexxam, Dixon will be manufacturing inverter controller boards for air conditioners for Daikin. The company has set up a new facility under the PLI scheme

Wearables & Hearables:

  • Dixon’s revenue from Boat was | 85 crore in Q3FY23 and | 130 crore in 9MFY23
  • Dixon has started manufacturing neckbands and model watches at its facility in Noida

Capex:

  • In FY23, the company’s capex will be at ~| 360 – 380 crore, out of which
    ~| 90 crore will be spent in Q4 mainly on the refrigerator project
  • The management expects capex to be at ~| 250 crore in FY24

Disclaimer

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