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  • CMP : 13,274.0 Chg : -354.0 (-2.60%)
  • Target : 4,200.0 (16.83%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jul 2022

A mixed bag quarter…

About The Stock

Dixon Technologies is India’s leading electronic manufacturing (EMS) provider and one of the largest beneficiaries of the government’s PLI scheme.

  • Dixon operates in both original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and original design manufacturing (ODM)
  • Strong RoE, RoCE at ~20%, ~24%, respectively (three year’s average)
Q1FY23 Results

Lower revenue of consumer electronic business restricted overall topline growth

  • Revenues grew ~53% YoY to ₹ 2855 crore, aided by strong growth in the mobile & EMS segment (up 4x YoY). However, consumer electronic segment revenues declined by 26% YoY
  • Price hike and improved product mix drives gross margin up by 170 bps YoY. However, one-time forex loss limits EBITDA margin expansion to 94 bps YoY to 3.5%
  • PAT up 150% YoY to ~₹ 46 crore; tracking higher sales and EBITDA margin expansion in Q1
What should Investors do?

Dixon’s share price has given return of ~38% in the past five years (from ~₹ 2602 in July 2017 to ~₹ 3595 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Dixon at 50x P/E on FY24E EPS with revised target price of ₹ 4200/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Indian EMS industry is valued at ~$23.5 billion. Dixon currently has a market share of ~3-4%, which leaves an opportunity to expand and grow
  • Domestic mobile production is set to grow 5x to ₹ 10.5 lakh crore by FY26 under the PLI scheme. Dixon is one of the main beneficiaries
  • New segments such as electronics/IT products, telecom products and LED lights & AC component to drive future revenue growth for Dixon
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab India in our coverage.

Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22%-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a 3-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2680

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 2,984.5 4,400.1 6,448.2 10,697.1 0.3 15,052.5 18,865.6 0.3
EBITDA 134.9 223.1 286.5 379.1 0.3 585.7 821.4 0.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.5 5.1 4.4 3.5 - 3.9 4.4 -
Net Profit 63.3 120.5 159.7 190.3 0.3 328.9 496.4 0.6
EPS (|) 11.2 20.6 27.3 32.1 - 55.4 83.6 -
P/E (x) 321.3 174.7 131.8 112.1 - 64.9 43.0 -
RoE (%) 16.7 22.3 21.7 19.1 - 30.9 34.1 -
RoCE (%) 22.4 26.3 23.5 17.7 - 27.0 31.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Strong revenue growth led by mobile segment…

  • Revenues were up ~53% YoY led by strong growth in the mobile & EMS segments (up 4x YoY) and home appliance segment (up 3.6x YoY). However, revenues from consumer electronic (TVs) declined 26% YoY, mainly due to higher base and passing of lower input price to customers
  • The mobile & EMS evenues grew 4x to | 1305 crore led by positive impact of PLI benefits. Segment wise, mobile revenue increased by 5x YoY to
    ~| 1231 crore supported by increased order from new customers. The company expects volume ramp up from key customers ‘Motorola’ and ‘Samsung’ to drive segment growth going forward. Set top box revenue declined by 22% YoY to | 43 crore largely on a higher base and delay in execution of orders. IT hardware and telecom equipment revenue came in at | 9 crore and | 20 crore in Q1FY23. The segment EBITDA margin was at 2.5% (up 110 bps YoY) due to improved product mix.
  • Home appliances revenues increased ~3.6x YoY to | 256 crore supported ramp up in fully automated washing machines (FAWM). The segment EBITDA margin improved 180 bps YoY to 8.1%, supported by price hikes and better operating leverage.
  • Lighting product revenues came in higher by 51% YoY to | 231 crore on a favourable base and customer additions. The segment EBITDA margin increased by 270 bps YoY to 7.2% due to price hikes. The management is confident of passing on higher raw material prices to its customer by Q2FY23, which will help bring back segment EBITDA margin at 9%. The company has signed UAE based new client for the export of its smart lighting solution. Dixon is in the final stages of signing a technical and commercial agreement with one of the global brands to export lighting products that will boost its lighting revenues
  • The consumer electronics segment revenues declined 26% YoY to | 932 crore on a higher base and lower realisations amid fall in input prices. The segment EBITDA margin increased 30 bps to 2.7% due to increase backward integration.
  • Security system revenues up by 75% YoY to | 131 crore in Q1FY23 led by strong demand. The segment EBITDA margin increased 50 bps YoY to 4%.

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Business Outlook: 

  • According to the management, the demand situation in the LED TV market has been challenging which will lead to marginal volume growth in the coming quarters. However, the company expects a significant increase in its ODM and JDM business led by increased backward integration. The management has given an improved margin guidance (of ~3%) for this segment going forward 
  • The management expects LED TV volumes to reach ~3.6 million units in FY23 as against 2.9 million units in FY22 supported customer additions 
  • The company expects to attain volumes of ~1.6 mn units of semi-automatic washing machines in FY23 as against ~1.1 mn units in FY22 owing to new customer acquisition as well as existing relationship with anchor customers 
  • Dixon is in the final stages of acquiring a lighting technology company that operates in the domain of smart lighting as it is anticipating demand for smart lighting in India to grow gradually 
  • On the mobile segment front, the management has given a guidance of ~1.5 million units per month for Motorola and ~2.5 million units per quarter for Samsung 
  • The company has ramped up its volumes for wearables for Boat from 0.5 million units to 1.5 million units monthly. It is also adding more SKUs in this segment
  • Under telecom and networking, the company has started manufacturing ONTs for Airtel in joint venture with Bharti Group. The commercial production has already been rolled out 
  • Dixon has planned a Capex of ~₹320 crore  
  • The company has gross debt of | 490 crore and cash of | 360 crore by the end of Q1FY23

Consumer Electronics Segment: 

  • Volumes in this segment have grown marginally by ~6% owing to lower unit value of televisions as a result of significant price correction in open cell which is a key component 
  • The company dispatched 7.4 lakh units in Q1FY23 and company expect it to increase 1.1 million units from Q2 onwards
  • The company has the largest capacity in LED televisions in India at 6 million sets which services to more than 35% to the overall Indian requirement  
  • The company’s JDM business has gone into the execution mode for an anchor customer. Dixon has a strong order book from this customer in Q2FY23 and is also planning on exports to Southeast Asia for this customer 
  • Dixon has received orders from global brands for manufacturing LED monitors and has commenced production for the same from April 2022. 

Lighting Products Segment: 

  • According to the management, demand in this business is normalizing due to liquidation of channel inventory 
  • The company will be launching new product categories in this segment in FY23 and has received its first export order from UAE  
  • Dixon has started investing in the government’s PLI scheme for LED lighting components   
  • The management expects benefits of softening commodity prices to reflect on the margins from Q3FY23 (expects segment margin of 9%) 

Home Appliances Segment: 

  • Company dispatched 3.8 lakhs semi-automatic machines and 30,000 units of fully automatic machines in Q1FY23
  • Margins in this segment improved on a YoY basis mainly due to passing on of price hikes 
  • Due to softening of commodity prices, the management expects margins to improve by Q3FY23 
  • The company has added Bosch as an anchor customer in this segment and also manufactures for Lloyd and Croma 
  • Dixon will be introducing an economy series in washing machines which will be launched by the end of Q2FY23. Due to the same, the management expects volumes in this segment to rise in the coming months  
  • The company is also in the final stages of getting a large contract from a big Japanese brand for Fully Automatic Top Loading (FATL) Washing Machine for both domestic and global markets 
  • The management is planning to increase its focus and investment in making this segment more android driven to serve the industry with the latest innovative technology 

Mobile and EMS Segment: 

  • The company has ramped up its volumes in the Motorola business and is touching a run rate of 4,00,000 a month.  
  • Dixon achieved a landmark of 1 million units in Q1FY23 for Motorola. The company expect production ramp up of 1.5 million units/month for the same customers.
  • Company expects 5.5 mn units of dispatches to Motorola in FY23 over 2 mn sets in FY22.
  • Dixon is likely to gain wallet share of Samsung as company is likely to migrate completely towards smartphone and stop selling of feature phone. Dixon currently manufactures 1million feature phone per month for Samsung. 
  • The company has started manufacturing feature phones for Nokia in addition to smart phones and is also in talks with Nokia for more business of smartphones for both domestic and global markets  
  • Dixon is having final discussions for feature phones with 2 major companies having a large market share in India and is likely to begin production for the same from Q4FY23 onwards 
  • The company has started construction in its new 5 acre integrated mobile facility on Expressway in Noida 

Security Systems Segment: 

  • The order book in this segment is healthy
  •  Dixon is expanding its capacity by 40%in FY23. For the same, the company is relocating its facility from Tirupati to Kopparthi electronic manufacturing cluster, where It has taken 2 lakh square feet constructed facility
 
  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2855.1 1867.3 52.9 2952.8 -3.3   Topline growth driven by Mobile & EMS segment
Other Income 0.4 0.4 10.5 1.8 -77    
               
Raw Material Exp 2595.3 1729.1 50.1 2682.3 -3.2   Price hikes and strong growth in the ODM businessess (lightings and washing machines) drove gross margin up by ~170 bps YoY
Employee cost 54.7 36.1 51.5 53.7 1.9    
Other Expenditure 105.0 54.1 93.9 98.6 6.5    
Total Expenditure 2755.0 1819.4 51.4 2834.6 -2.8    
EBITDA 100.1 47.9 109.1 118.2 -15.3    
EBITDA Margin (%) 3.5 2.6 94 bps 4.0 -50 bps   Higher employee costs and one time forex losses of | 12 crore limits the EBITDA margin gain
Depreciation 24.1 15.0 60.0 19.1 25.8    
Interest 14.4 9.1 58.1 13.9 3.5    
               
PBT 62.1 24.1 157.5 87.0 -28.6    
Total Tax 16.5 5.9 178.5 23.8 -30.4    
PAT 45.5 18.2 150.3 63.1 -28.0   Strong PAT growth is attrirbutable to higher topline and margin expansion
               
Key Metrics*              
Consumer Electronics 932.2 1,262.3 -26.2 1,010.4 -7.7   Lower realisation amid falling input prices drags revenue of the segment
Lighting Products 231.2 153.5 50.6 304.6 -24.1   Strong revenue growth on a favourable base
Home appliances 255.6 70.6 262.3 234.1 9.2   Favourable base and ramp up of fully automatic machines segment volume helped drive segment growth
Mobile & EMS 1,304.9 305.9 326.6 1,294.1 0.8   Strong growth in smartphone disptaches (under PLI) help drive segment growth
Security Systems 131.1 75.1 74.5 109.6 19.7   Strong demand of security products helped drive segment revenue growth in Q1

Disclaimer

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