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Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd>
  • CMP : 8,145.8 Chg : 379.10 (4.88%)
  • Target : 4,470.0 (15.83%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

01 Jun 2022

Slow offtake of TV, lights restricts topline growth…

About The Stock

Dixon Technologies is India’s leading electronic manufacturing (EMS) provider and one of the largest beneficiaries of the government’s PLI scheme.

  • Dixon operates in both original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and original design manufacturing (ODM)
  • Strong RoE, RoCE at ~20%, ~24%, respectively (three year’s average)
Q4FY22 Results

Slow offtake in TV & light segments restricted overall topline growth. Costs optimisation measures safeguarded margin.

  • Revenues grew ~40% YoY to ₹ 2953 crore, aided by strong growth in the mobile & EMS segment (up 4.5x YoY)
  • Gross margin declined ~100 bps YoY, due to a delay in price hikes and higher contributions from products with lower margins. However, savings in other costs helped drive EBITDA margin up by 22 bps YoY to 4%
  • PAT increased 43% YoY to ₹ 63 crore tracking higher sales growth in Q4
What should Investors do?

Dixon’s share price has grown by ~7x over the past four years (from ~₹ 532 in September 2017 to ~₹ 3859 levels in May 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price & Valuation

We value Dixon at 50x P/E on FY24E EPS with revised target price of ₹ 4470/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Indian EMS industry is valued at ~$23.5 billion. Dixon currently has a market share of ~3-4%, which leaves an opportunity to expand and grow
  • Domestic mobile production is set to grow 5x to ₹ 10.5 lakh crore by FY26 under the PLI scheme. Dixon is one of the main beneficiaries
  • New segments such as electronics/IT products, telecom products and LED lights & AC component to drive future revenue growth for Dixon
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab in our coverage universe.

  • Polycab is a leader in the wire & cable industry with organised market share of ~24%. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2850

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

 

Q4FY22 Results: Strong revenue growth led by mobile segment…

  • Revenues were up ~40% YoY led by strong growth in the mobile & EMS segments (up 4.5x YoY) and home appliance segment (up ~50% YoY). However, revenues from consumer electronic and lightings segment declined ~14% and ~20% YoY, respectively, mainly due to a change in product mix and lower volume offtake by key customers
  • The mobile & EMS revenues grew 4.5x to | 1294 crore led by positive impact of PLI benefits. Segment wise, mobile revenue increased by 4.7x YoY to
    ~| 1150 crore supported by increased order from new customers. Set top box revenue also increased 66% YoY to | 77 crore. The company started manufacturing IT hardware and telecom equipment in Q4FY22, clocking revenue of | 50 crore and | 16 crore from these segments, respectively. The segment EBITDA margin was at 3.5% (up 100 bps YoY, 50 bps QoQ) due to improved product mix. Dixon is the only domestic company, which has hit PLI ceiling of | 2000 crore revenues in FY22E. For FY22E, the mobile & EMS revenues grew 2.7x to | 3138 crore led by mobile revenue. EBITDA margin in FY22 declined 160 bps to 3.1% due to higher contribution of low margin orders
  • Home appliances revenues increased ~60% YoY to | 234 crore supported by launch of fully automated washing machines (FAWM) in December 2021. Dixon clocked revenue of | 33 crore from the newly launched FAWM segment. The segment EBITDA margin improved 120 bps QoQ (90 bps YoY) to 7.9%, supported by price hikes and better operating leverage. For FY22, the segment revenue increased 64% YoY to | 709 crore with EBITDA margin of 7.6% (down 160 bps YoY)
  • Lighting product revenues declined ~20% YoY to | 305 crore, mainly due to lower volume offtake by key clients. The segment EBITDA margin declined 100 bps YoY to 7.1% due to delay in price hikes. The management is confident of passing on higher raw material prices to its customer by Q2FY23, which will help bring back segment EBITDA margin at 8%. The company is in the final stages of signing a technical and commercial agreement with one of the global brands to export lighting products that will boost its lighting revenues
  • The consumer electronics segment revenues declined 14% YoY to | 1010 crore due to lower realisations (declined by ~15%). The segment EBITDA margin increased 40 bps to 2.8% due to various cost optimisation measures. For FY22, segment revenue increased ~35% YoY to | 5170 crore with EBITDA margin of 2.4% (down 30 bps YoY)
  • Security system revenues remained flat at | 110 crore in Q4FY22 while the segment EBITDA margin increased 60 bps YoY to 3.4%. For FY22, the segment revenue increase 82% YoY to | 396 crore led by robust demand. It clocked EBITDA margin of 3.8% in FY22, up 100 bps YoY

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Business Outlook:
    • Dixon aims at ~60% growth in FY23E led by strong revenue from mobile division.
    • Strategic increase in prices in the ODM business of washing machines and lightings. Further price increase implemented in this week wherever it was necessary
    • The company aims at EBITDA margin in the range of 4-4.2%.
    • Dixon is planning a capex of | 340 crore for FY23
  • Consumer Electronics segment:
    • Expanded capacity of LED TV manufacturing capacity by 9% YoY to 6 million (mn) units in FY23. The current capacity is ~35% of total industry size
    • The company has received a new order from one of the global brands for its LED TV under ODM business. The dispatches will start from Q1FY23
    • Dixon expects ~40% volume growth in the LED TV business led by new order win from one of the global client. Production has already started from May 2022
    • The segment EBITDA margin for FY23E is likely to be at similar level of FY22 (i.e. ~2.4%)
    • Dixon has got new order from two large global brand to manufacture LED monitors. The company expects ~0.5 mn dispatches for FY23, which is likely to increase further from next year onwards
    • EBITDA margin profile of the monitor will be similar to LED TV business
    • Dixon does not see any order cancellation or payment delay from Xiaomi due to ongoing probe by ED. The order book remains healthy at ~1.3 mn unit for FY23
  • Lighting products segment:
    • The EBITDA margin is likely to improve from Q1FY23 onwards supported by price hikes and better operating leverage.
    • The company has total LED bulb manufacturing capacity of 300 mn which is ~50% of total industry size. Dixon has ramped up the battens manufacturing capacity to 5 mn/month (against total industry size of 9 mn/month). In downlights, the company has total manufacturing capacity of 1.5 mn/month (against industry size of 3 mn/month)
    • Dixon expects lighting export order from FY23 onwards. It is already in touch with global brands for the export of LED lights
    • The company will be investing | 100 crore over the next five years for manufacturing LED light components under the PLI schemes. It is planning a capex of | 20 crore in FY23 for the same
  • Home appliances segment:
    • Dixon has started manufacturing fully automatic washing machine (FAWM) from December 2021. The company clocked ~| 33 crore revenues from FAWM in Q4FY22. Dixon expects sales volume to ramp up month on month, going forward
    • The company has FAWM manufacturing capacity of 0.6 mn. It has already added two new customers Lloyds and Thomson in FY22. Dixon plans to on-board one large customers from H2FY23 onwards for its FAWM business
    • The segment witnessed improvement in the segment EBITDA margin (by 90 bps YoY and 120 bps QoQ) supported by price hikes and better operating leverage.
    • Dixon has ramped up manufacturing of semi-automatic washing machines by 60% to 2.4 mn units in FY23
    • The company has one of the largest semi-automatic machines SKU (~160) under the 6-14 kg category in India. Dixon expects semi-automatic washing machine volume to grow 30% in FY23 supported by customer addition
  • Mobile and EMS segment:
    • The company is aiming at mobile revenue of ~| 7000-7500 crore revenues in FY23 (vs. ~| 3000 crore in FY22)
    • For mobile division, Motorola is the key customer for the company. Dixon has a strong order book (of 1.5 mn mobile units) to be dispatched in Q2FY23 for Motorola’s domestic and overseas markets
    • Dixon is also manufacturing (~0.5 mn/month) feature and smart phones for Nokia
    • Dixon has added a new customer ITEL for its feature phone category. It expects ~1 mn units of annual volume from ITEL, which will start from Q2FY23 onwards
    • Dixon has received new order from Samsung for the supply of new 4G and 5G phones. The current order size is ~1.5 mn/month, which is likely to increase to 1.7 mn/month in the near future
    • It has dispatched ~0.66mn set top boxes for Jio in Q4FY22
  • Security Systems segment:
    • Robust order book for FY23E. The company plans to increase manufacturing capacity from 10 mn/annum to 14 mn/annum

 

  • New products:
    • Dixon is looking to start manufacturing direct cool refrigerator with initial capacity of 1.2 mn units/annum, which will be extended to frost free in later stage. (Industry size of direct cool is ~10 mn units and frost free is ~4 mn units). The production will commence from Q2FY24
    • The company has started manufacturing of IT hardware products for Acer. Dixon is in talks with one of the largest brand for the manufacturing of tablets and production will start from Q2FY23. The company has achieved IT hardware PLI threshold revenue target for FY22 and expects incentives to come flow in the coming quarter
    • The company has a strong order book in the telecom and networking products from Airtel
    • Dixon potential order of ~7 mn units of TWS hearables and ~4 mn units annual order from neckband
Variance Analysis
  Q4FY22 Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2952.8 2109.7 40.0 3073.3 -3.9   Strong growth in mobile & EMS segment drives overall revenue growth
Other Income 1.8 1.0 85.7 0.7 172    
               
Raw Material Exp 2682.3 1896.0 41.5 2814.7 -4.7   Delay in passing on higher raw material prices in the ODM businessess (lightings and washing machines) drags down gross margin by ~100 bps YoY
Employee cost 53.7 43.7 22.8 53.3 0.7    
 Other Expenditure  98.6 90.2 9.3 102.3 -3.6    
Total Expenditure 2834.6 2029.9 39.6 2970.3 -4.6    
EBITDA 118.2 79.8 48.1 103.0 14.8    
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.0 3.8 22 bps 3.4 65 bps   Various cost optimisation measures help negate adverse impact of higher raw material prices on EBITDA margin
Depreciation 19.1 12.3 55.7 28.2 -32.1    
Interest 13.9 7.1 95.5 12.0 16.3    
               
PBT 87.0 61.4 41.7 63.5 37.0    
Total Tax 23.8 17.1 38.9 17.1 38.9    
PAT 63.1 44.3 42.6 46.4 36.1   PAT grows ~43% YoY , tracking strong topline growth in Q4

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