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Divis Laboratories Ltd>
  • CMP : 4,016.4 Chg : 172.55 (4.49%)
  • Target : 4,655.0 (19.42%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

24 May 2022

Numbers buoyed by custom synthesis traction…

About The Stock

Divi’s is engaged in manufacturing generic APIs and intermediates, custom synthesis (CS) of active ingredients and advanced intermediates for pharma MNCs, other speciality chemicals like carotenoids and complex compounds like peptides and nucleotide revenues.

  • In CS, the company maintains strong relationship with global big pharma players while in generics it enjoys significant market share in products like Naproxen, Dextromethorphan and Gabapentin among others
  • Divi’s is fully backward integrated in products with high market share. The management intends to follow suit in other products
Q4FY22

Beats estimates on back of strong order book of custom synthesis

  • Sales were up 41% YoY to ₹ 2518 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 1104 crore, up 54% YoY with margins at 44%
  • Consequent PAT was at ₹ 895 crore (up 78% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Divi’s share price has grown by ~2.2x over the past three years (from ~₹ 1765 in  May 2019 to ~₹ 3898 levels in May 2022).

  • Maintain BUY as the company remains a compelling bet as a structurally well positioned customs synthesis and API company, even after a possible flattish year ahead on a high base in FY22 and some medium term challenges in generics APIs
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 4655 i.e. 38x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 122.5.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company has been building capacities in a few more niche APIs as per the evolving demand scenario in the backdrop of ‘China plus one’ opportunities and upcoming opportunity size of ~US$20 billion in molecules going off-patent over FY23-25
  • Progress towards six identified growth areas- 1) Established generics, 2) Existing generics, 3) New generics, 4) Sartan APIs, 5) Contrast Media, 6) CS
  • Traction from some near term Covid opportunities such as Molnupiravir API (MSDs) authorised manufacturer and possible others in custom synthesis
  • Progress on Kakinada greenfield project (planned outlay ₹ 1000-2000 crore)
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Divi’s, in our coverage we like Syngene.

  • Syngene has years of experience in operating in the niche of CRO/CRM. The company is well poised to capitalise on growing opportunities globally
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 730

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 4,946.3 5,394.4 6,969.4 8,959.8 17.1 9,031.4 10,348.8 7.5
EBITDA 1,871.8 1,816.1 2,859.9 3,881.9 21.8 3,938.1 4,554.1 8.3
EBITDA margins (%) 37.8 33.7 41.0 43.3 - 43.6 44.0 -
Adj. Net Profit 1,352.7 1,376.5 1,984.3 2,960.5 22.8 2,805.3 3,252.4 4.8
Adjusted EPS (|) 51.0 51.9 74.7 111.5 - 105.7 122.5 -
PE (x) 86.4 75.2 52.1 34.9 - 36.9 31.8 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 61.1 55.4 34.3 25.0 - 24.0 20.3 -
RoNW (%) 19.4 18.8 21.3 25.2 - 20.3 20.0 -
RoCE (%) 25.5 23.9 27.6 30.2 - 25.8 25.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Robust performance continues

  • Revenues grew 41% YoY to | 2518 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2302 crore). EBITDA margins improved 380 bps YoY to 43.9% (I-direct estimates of 42.4%) mainly due to lower employee and other expenditure offsetting minor dip in gross margins (down 79 bps YoY to 66.7%). Subsequently, EBITDA grew 54% YoY to | 1104 crore (I-direct estimate: | 976 crore). Net profit grew 78% YoY to | 895 crore (I-direct estimate: | 795 crore). Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA mainly due to lower interest and tax expense
  • Divi’s Laboratories’ quarterly performance was a significant beat vis-à-vis I-direct and consensus estimates amid near normal operations in Q4FY22. More than strong quarterly performance, the important narrative for Divi’s is its unprecedented capex plans to further augment capacities besides preparing for growing opportunities arising due to China plus one factor. It has earmarked an aggressive capex of ~| 2000 crore (including greenfield Kakinada plant) over the next two years in order to take a chunk of ~US$20 billion opportunity of APIs going off-patent over FY23-25. Divi’s remains a quintessential play on the Indian API/CRAMs segment with its product offerings and execution prowess

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Raw material price inflation is persisting as companies migrate to domestic sources. Shipping cost and timeline is continuing to increase with container availability also challenging. Overall, due to de-bottlenecking and backward integration, the company is largely unaffected
  • FY22 Revenue mix: Generics – 41% and Custom Synthesis – 59%. Exports accounted for 90% of revenues
  • The management has said that Divi’s has not lost volumes in generics and as the current environment eases, generics is likely to be back in six months
  • Divi’s capacity is of multi-purpose blocks. The company is ready to produce volumes at short notice. The management is more inclined towards choosing a product with scope to grow over a long time
  • Capacity utilisation at 80-85% with scope for five to 10 large projects in available capacity. Divi’s has more than 100-acre land at both Unit-1 and Unit-2 for any expansion required even if there is delay in Kakinada. The company is waiting for government clearance for Kakinada. The management has reiterated capex plans of | 2000-3000 crore over the next two to three years while also indicating to spend | 4000-5000 crore if required.
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 Q3FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments
Revenue 2,518.4 2,302.2 1,788.2 2,493.2 40.8 1.0  YoY growth supported by strong growth growth in CS segment 
Raw Material Expenses 838.6 767.8 581.4 831.6 44.2 0.9  
Gross Margins (%) 66.7 66.6 67.5 66.6 -79 bps 5 bps  
Employee Expenses 256.8 253.2 215.1 244.6 19.4 5.0  
Other Expenditure 318.6 305.0 275.5 319.9 15.7 -0.4  
Total Expenditure  1,414.0 1,326.1 1,071.9 1,396.1 31.9 1.3  
EBITDA 1,104.4 976.1 716.3 1,097.2 54.2 0.7  
EBITDA (%) 43.9 42.4 40.1 44.0 380 bps -15 bps YoY improvement mainly due to better operating leverage on the back of backward integration and debottlenecking
Interest  0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -61.9 -65.2  
Depreciation 81.0 79.9 70.1 79.9 15.6 1.4  
Other income 52.4 15.3 23.5 16.6 122.7 215.2  
PBT Before EO 1,075.7 911.3 669.5 1,033.7 60.7 4.1  
EO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA NA  
PBT 1,075.7 911.3 669.5 1,033.7 60.7 4.1  
Tax 181.1 115.9 167.5 131.4 8.1 37.8  
Net Profit 894.6 795.4 502.0 902.2 78.2 -0.8 YoY delta vis-à-vis EBITDA mainly due to lower interest and tax expense

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