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Divis Laboratories Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,989.3 Chg : -27.10 (-0.67%)
  • Target : 2,945.0 (2.97%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

03 Feb 2023

Margins tumble to historical low; outlook cautious…

About The Stock

Divi’s is engaged in manufacturing generic APIs and intermediates, custom synthesis (CS) of active ingredients and advanced intermediates for pharma MNCs, other speciality chemicals like Carotenoids and complex compounds like peptides and Nucleotide revenues.

  • In CS, the company maintains a strong relationship with global big pharma players while in generics it enjoys significant market share in products like Naproxen, Dextromethorphan and Gabapentin among others
  • Divi’s is fully backward integrated in products with high market share. The management intends to follow suit in other products
Q3FY23 Results

Dismal set of numbers miss our expectations.

  • Revenues de-grew 31.5% YoY to ₹ 1708 crore
  • EBITDA margins declined 2010 bps YoY to 23.9% due to 1) high-cost inventory 2) acute pricing pressure in generics 3) replacement of old safety systems with new ones and other maintenance
  • Adjusted PAT declined 66.0% YoY to ₹ 307 crore
What should Investors do?

Divi’s share price has grown at 13.47% CAGR over past three years.

Maintain HOLD as we keep tab on future custom synthesis ex-Covid opportunities and execution besides steady generics traction

Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 2945 i.e. 31x FY25E EPS of ₹ 95.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company has been building capacity in a few more niche APIs as per the evolving demand scenario in the backdrop of ‘China plus one’ opportunities and upcoming opportunity size of ~US$20 billion in molecules going off-patent over FY23-25
  • Progress towards six identified growth areas- 1) Established generics, 2) Existing generics, 3) New generics, 4) Sartan APIs, 5) Contrast Media, 6) CS
  • Commercialisation of new and multipurpose facility from Unit 3, Kakinada region in the coming quarters
  • Progress on Kakinada greenfield project post government approval
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Divi’s, in our coverage we like Laurus.

  • Laurus Labs operates in the segment of generic APIs and FDFs (formulations), custom synthesis and biotechnology
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 400

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 5,394.4 6,969.4 8,959.8 17.1 7,613.7 8,549.4 9,700.3 12.9
EBITDA 1,816.1 2,859.9 3,881.9 21.8 2,379.4 2,817.8 3,398.6 19.5
EBITDA margins (%) 33.7 41.0 43.3 - 31.3 33.0 35.0 -
Adj. Net Profit 1,376.5 1,984.3 2,960.5 22.8 1,933.0 2,054.3 2,522.2 14.2
Adjusted EPS (|) 51.9 74.7 111.5 - 72.8 77.4 95.0 -
PE (x) 55.2 38.3 25.6 - 39.3 37.0 30.1 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 40.2 24.7 17.9 - 28.4 23.7 19.2 -
RoNW (%) 18.8 21.3 25.2 - 15.0 14.5 15.9 -
RoCE (%) 23.9 27.6 30.2 - 18.2 18.3 20.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Divi’s reports dismal set of numbers, which miss our expectations on all fronts

  • Revenues were down 31.5% YoY at | 1707.7 crore. On the segmental front Generics business increased 11.7% YoY to | 871 crore. Custom synthesis and nutraceuticals business revenues came in at | 686 crore and | 150 crore showing de-growth of 55.6% and 12.3%, respectively. Gross margins for the period declined ~996 bps over the previous year to 56.7%. The reason behind was change in the product mix and pricing pressure in generics. EBITDA de-grew 62.8% YoY to | 408.3 crore whereas EBITDA margins declined 2010 bps YoY to 23.9%. The impact was largely due to maintenance cost for old facilities. Adjusted PAT declined 37.8% YoY to | 306.8 crore. Higher finance cost and taxes led to such a decline
  • On the generics front, the management is looking at opportunities from patent expiry in 2023-25 (~US$20 billion addressable market). Overall, we expect the performance in custom synthesis to weigh on sentiments for the next few quarters
Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights: 
  • The company is experiencing double digit growth in some generic products and also receiving repeat orders from customers, which should augur well in the future
  • Generic margins took a larger hit as compared to the custom synthesis
  • Most of the growth for top generic products was in volume terms during the period Unit 3 facility at Kakinada has received necessary clearance from the government. The management is on the verge of finalising the project and product planning.
  • Raw material prices have slightly softened post Q3FY23. Logistic and freight cost is improving both for air and sea mode
  • It intends to diversify the supply base to keep the supply chain stable
  • Exports during the quarter remained around 87%, where sales from Europe and US came in at 70%
  • The company does not plan to enter the injectable business but plans to invest in new technologies remains concrete
  • New projects coming up are mostly coming in from big pharma companies
  • Generic margins took a larger hit compared to custom synthesis

Disclaimer

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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