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Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd>
  • CMP : 236.1 Chg : 0.75 (0.32%)
  • Target : 340.0 (30.27%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

09 May 2023

Stable sugar recovery & rising sugar prices to aid profit

About The Stock

Dhampur Sugar (DSL) is one of the integrated sugar companies in UP with the sugar crushing capacity of 23,500 tcd (tonnes crushed per day), distillery capacity of 350 KLD (kilolitres per day) and 121 MW of co-generation capacity. It also has Ethyl Acetate production capacity of            140 tonnes per day

  • Dhampur Sugar would commission 100 KLD grain-based distillery in next few months. Post expansion, it would be able to produce 15 crore ethanol p.a. at peak capacity utilisation
Q4FY23 Results

DSL reported strong set of results with 53.7% growth in EBITDA

  • Sales witnessed a growth of 43.9% YoY led by 68% growth in ethanol sales
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 104.4 cr  ore, growth of 53.7% YoY, with margins at 15.5%
  • Consequent PAT was at ₹ 60.7 crore (up 104.2% YoY)
What should Investors do?

DSL’s share price is down by 14% in last one year considering adjusted share price after de-merger in May-22

  • We expect 50% growth in ethanol volumes to 13.5 crore litres by FY25. This would lead to earnings CAGR of 20.3% during FY23-25E
  • We assign BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 340, valuing the business at 10x FY25 PE

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • DSL has commissioned 130 KLD distillery capacity in Feb-2023. This along with 100 KLD grain-based distillery (likely to get commissioned by June-2023) would take its annual distillery volumes to 15 crore litres. Total ethanol would contribute 38% to the overall sales by FY25
  • The company would be diverting ~25% of its sugarcane towards sugarcane juice route to produce ethanol. DSL would divert ~1.7 lakh tonnes each of equivalent sugar to produce ethanol in FY24E & FY25E
  • We expect cumulative free cash flow of ₹ 360 crore in next two years, which would result in debt reduction & higher dividend pay-out
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Dalmia Bharat Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • It is fastest in utilising B-heavy & Sugarcane juice to produce ethanol. Distillery volumes to grow 1.8x to 22 crore litre by FY24. The company is aggressively exporting sugar & utilising higher global white sugar prices
  • We value the stock at ₹ 490/share with a BUY recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (FY18 to FY23) FY24E FY25E CAGR (FY23-25E)
Total Operating Income 2,988.8 2,158.1 1,904.1 2,459.8 0.1 2,440.3 2,574.2 0.0
EBITDA 378.0 276.7 291.4 303.3 0.0 334.7 387.8 0.1
EBITDA Margin % 12.6 12.8 15.3 12.3 - 13.7 15.1 -
Net Profit 226.7 143.4 144.0 158.0 0.0 178.8 228.8 0.2
EPS (|) 34.1 21.6 21.7 23.8 0.0 26.9 34.5 0.2
P/E 7.7 12.1 12.0 11.0 - 9.7 7.6 -
RoNW % 16.6 9.2 16.3 15.2 - 15.8 17.7 -
RoCE (%) 10.9 8.6 13.9 14.5 - 15.9 18.5 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Distillery expansion near completion; Ethanol & Portable sprit to contribute 38% to revenues by FY25   

  • DSL witnessed a revenue growth of 43.9% to | 671.8 crore (net of excise) mainly on account of 44.7% growth in sugar sales & 68.2% growth in distillery sales. Power revenue was flat during the quarter.

 

  • Sugar segment sales growth of 44.7% was led by 24.7% higher sugar volumes & flat sugar realisation in Q4FY23. The company sold 0.96 lakh tonnes of sugar at an average realisation of | 34.7 / kg. It is holding 1.2 lakh tonnes of sugar valued at | 32.9 / kg

 

  • Distillery sales growth of 68.2% was led by 59.2% growth in ethanol volume & 4% growth in ethanol realisation. The company sold 2.87 crore litres of ethanol at an average realisation of |65.7/litre. Power volumes were down by 5.7% to 16.7 crore unit at an average tariff of | 3.76 / unit (7.4% higher

 

  • Chemical segment volumes increased by 33% to 107.4 lakh kg. However, realisation declined considerably during the quarter. The company make ~7% in this segment. On a full year basis, chemical segment sales stand at |302.1 crore (~10% of total revenue)

 

  • DSL crushed 18.85 lakh tonnes of sugarcane in Q4Y23, out of which 4.65 lakh tonnes (24.6%) was diverted towards sugarcane juice to produce ethanol.

 

  • Gross recovery during the quarter was down by 12 bps to 12.38%. The company entirely produce ethanol from sugarcane Juice during the quarter. It stored B-heavy molasses, which would be utilised to produce ethanol during off-season

 

  • Transfer of bagasse pricing is |1/ kg. The company is not planning to produce sell any bagasse before August-2023 given the company would require fuel for new ethanol distillery.

 

  • New sugarcane crushing plant in Bijnor has been established by Bindal group close to catchment area of Dhampur. The company is working on increasing sugarcane availability in its catchment area hence this new plant would not significantly impact availability    

 

  • Increase in ethanol volumes, higher domestic sales quota & relatively better recovery rate resulted in 53.7% growth in operating profit to |104.4 crore. With reduction of debt, interest cost declined by 23.7% to |10.7 crore. This along with lower income tax resulted in 104.2% growth in net profit to |60.7 crore

 

  • In 2022-23 season gross recovery is flat, which would keep sugar cost of sugar production similar to last season. Considering, sugar prices have moved up by | 2 / kg in last one months & expected increase in sugarcane costs, sugar segment margins for FY24E is likely to improve from |1.5 / kg to | 2.5/kg.

 

  • Sugarcane crushing is expected to increase only marginally (2-3%) in next crushing season. The company would be diverting ~25% of sugarcane towards sugarcane juice ethanol & remaining towards B-heavy ethanol to produce 12.5 crore & 13.5 crore litres of ethanol in FY24E & FY25E respectively

 

  • Sugar industry is expected to produce 32.7 million tonnes (MT) of sugar in 2022-23 season. Sugar consumption of |27.7 MT & export of 6.1 MT is likely to reduce sugar inventory by at least 1 MT by September 2023. We believe the country would be having just sufficient inventory to last until sugar crushing starts in November-2023. This would keep domestic sugar prices firm above |36 / kg

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

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research@icicidirect.com

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