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Data Patterns (India) Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,892.9 Chg : -55.20 (-1.87%)
  • Target : 1,540.0 (10.79%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

01 Feb 2023

Strong show, visibility but valuations cap upside…

About The Stock

Data Patterns (India) (DPIL) is a vertically integrated defence and aerospace electronics solutions provider catering to the indigenously developed defence products industry.

  • The company delivered revenue, PAT CAGR of 18.9%, 40.7%, respectively, in FY19-22. FY22 revenues increased 39% YoY with EBITDA margin at 45.4%. FY22 PAT increased 69% YoY to ₹ 94 crore
Q3FY23

Strong beat on revenues, margins and profitability.

  • Revenue from operations for the quarter rose to ₹ 111.8 crore, up 160%
  • EBIDTA margins for Q2FY23 were at 42.2% vs. 34.2% in Q2FY23 and 35.7% in Q3FY22. PAT was at ₹ 33 crore in Q3FY23 vs. expectation of ₹18.3 crore
  • The 9MFY23 order inflows were at ₹ 680 crore; order book at ₹ 888 crore as on Q3FY23
What should Investors do?

DPIL is well placed to deliver revenue, PAT CAGR of 29.3%, 28.5%, respectively, over FY22-25E. However, the stock has run up a lot limiting further upside given rich valuations and no room for error at such multiples

  • We downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD rating
Target Price and Valuation

We value Data Patterns at ₹ 1540 i.e. 40x on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong order inflows with healthy pipeline of orders worth ₹ 2,000-3,000 crore in the next two to three years provides strong visibility
  • Defence electronics provides a huge opportunity of ~₹ 1.5 lakh crore in the next four to five years led by armed forces’ requirement of advanced systems
  • Fire control system for BrahMos missile, avionics for LCA, RWR for fighter aircraft, ELINT for airborne and ground platform and radar subsystems are key orders in the pipeline in FY23 for DPIL
  • Large part of electronic components (used in Indian defence platforms) are supplied by foreign OEMs. As indigenisation efforts continue, future procurement will see a large portion of defence electronics sourced locally
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides DPIL, we like Bharat Electronics in the defence electronics space.

  • Strong growth in profitability aided by sustained margins. Strong balance sheet, double digit returns ratios
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 130/share

 

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 2 Year CAGR (FY20-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Revenues 156.1 224.0 310.9 41.1 413.4 537.4 671.7 29.3
EBITDA 43.2 92.0 141.0 80.8 162.5 221.9 281.0 25.8
EBITDA margin (%) 27.7 41.1 45.4 - 39.3 41.3 41.8 -
Net Profit 21.1 55.6 94.0 111.1 114.2 157.1 199.6 28.5
EPS (|) 4.5 10.7 18.1 - 22.0 30.3 38.5 -
P/E (x) 308.2 129.8 76.8 - 63.2 45.9 36.1 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 168.4 78.7 49.9 - 43.9 32.0 25.2 -
RoCE (%) 19.5 37.0 23.8 - 25.2 28.7 30.0 -
RoE (%) 13.7 26.7 16.4 - 18.2 20.9 21.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Analysis

| Crore Q3FY23 Q2FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
Operating Income 111.8 76.2 43.8 155.0 88.2 26.8 Better execution in development & production contracts
Other income 1.9 0.8 0.7 164.3 1.9 0.0  
Total Revenue 113.7 77.0 44.5 155.2 90.0 26.3  
Raw materials costs 37.6 25.1 5.3 614.0 31.0 21.5  
Employees Expenses 18.5 17.5 17.1 8.4 19.1 -3.4  
Other Expenses 8.7 6.2 5.9 47.4 7.9 9.6  
Total Expenditure 64.8 48.9 28.2 129.8 58.0 11.7  
EBITDA 47.0 27.3 15.7 200.6 30.2 56.0  
EBITDA margins (%) 42.1 35.8 35.7 637 bps 34.2 786 bps Better mix and operating leverage led to huge EBITDA beat
Interest 2.1 1.6 2.7   1.2    
Depreciation 2.1 2.0 1.7 22.0 2.1 -0.9  
Tax 11.3 6.5 3.0 283.7 7.6 48.8  
PAT 33.3 17.9 9.0 269.4 21.1 58.3  

 

Q3FY23 Results

  • Revenue from operations for the quarter increased to | 111.8 crore, up 160%; higher than our estimate of | 72.2 crore. The revenue beat was mainly on account of higher-than-expected execution of the order backlog. From an order backlog perspective, the book was at | 890 crore while orders worth | 123 crore have been negotiated but not yet received. Including this, the same will be pegged at | 1014 crore

 

  • On account of better execution, gross margins have expanded 140 bps QoQ while EBIDTA margins for Q2FY23 were at 42.2% vs. 34.2% in Q2FY23 and 35.7% in Q3FY22. We had built in margins of 38% for Q3FY23

 

  • Higher revenues and margins, therefore, led to huge beat on profitability at | 33 crore in Q3FY23 vs. expectations of | 18.3 crore

 

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The order book as on date was | 888 crore as of Q3FY23. The company has won certain orders in January 2023, which has further increased the order backlog at | 1014 crore. The 9MFY23 order inflows were at | 680 crore. The company is confident of winning orders to the tune of | 150-200 crore in Q4FY23E

 

  • The company bagged orders to the tune of | 163 crore in Q3FY23. Out of these, avionics & navy segment (production order from HAL & AAI) were worth | 75 crore. Development order from DRDO in the electronic warfare was at | 24 crore while it also bagged orders to the tune of | 54 crore (production order for Brahmos and other production orders)

 

  • Development orders comprised 56% of total order backlog inflows as of Q3FY23. Whole production segment share was pegged at 38% with 6% from the services segment

 

  • The company maintained its FY23E revenue guidance at 25-30% growth with gross margin of ~65% and EBITDA margin of ~40% for the next couple of years

 

  • During the quarter, 65% of revenues were from production, 28% from development and 7% from services. For 9MFY23, production constituted ~63% of revenues while development segment comprised 31% of orders

 

  • Product wise revenue mix for Q2FY23: Radars contributed | 33.4 crore of revenues, automated test equipment (ATE) contributed | 13.8 crore, electronic warfare contributed | 19.3 crore. Customer wise revenue mix:
    | 28 crore of revenues was from MoD, | 40.3 crore from MoD and | 14 crore from exports

 

  • The management expects | 2000-3000 crore worth orders in the pipeline for the next three to four years. Fire control system for BrahMos Missile, Avionics for LCA, RWR for fighter aircraft, ELINT for airborne and ground platform and radar subsystems are key orders in the pipeline for FY23

 

  • DPIL is in the process of doubling existing manufacturing facility at Chennai, which is expected to be fully operational from Q4FY23. Post this expansion, the company would be capable of generating | 1000 crore revenue

 

  • Cash conversion cycle (CCC) reached 350-360 days in 9MFY23 as inventory level increased in anticipation of supply constraints. CCC is expected to remain the same as above in FY23E while they aspire to reach to 260-300 days in two years

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Chirag Shah, PGDBM and Vijay Goel, PGDBM, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report

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