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  • CMP : 2,606.4 Chg : 12.20 (0.47%)
  • Target : 900.0 (15.98%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

04 Aug 2022

Healthy execution drives strong performance

Data Patterns (India) Ltd

Data Patterns (India) (DPIL) is a vertically integrated defence and aerospace electronics solutions provider catering to the indigenously developed defence products industry.
 The company delivered revenue, PAT CAGR of 18.9%, 40.7%, respectively, in FY19-22. FY22 revenues increased 39% YoY with EBITDA margin at 45.4%. FY22 PAT increased 69% YoY to ₹ 94 crore

Q1FY23

Revenues were better than estimates while margins came lower.
 Revenue at ₹ 68.4 crore; up 83.7% YoY, led by better execution in development contracts
 EBITDA margin contracted 1394 bps YoY to 31.1% on change in contract mix; EBITDA came at ₹ 21.3 crore, up 26.8% YoY
 PAT increased 39.1% YoY to ₹ 14.2 crore
 YTDFY23 order inflow was at ~₹ 250 crore; order backlog at ₹ 664 crore

What should Investors do?

DPIL is well placed to deliver revenue and PAT CAGR of 28.2% and 24.3%, respectively, over FY22-24E. Increase in profitability with strong asset turnover will result in healthy return ratios over FY23-24E.
 We remain long term positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value Data Patterns at ₹ 900 i.e. 32x on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance

Strong order inflows with healthy pipeline of orders worth ₹ 2,000-3,000 crore in the next two to three years provides strong visibility
 Defence electronics provides huge opportunity of ~₹ 1.5 lakh crore in next four to five years led by armed forces’ requirement of advanced systems
 Fire control system for Brahmos missile, Avionics for LCA, RWR for Fighter Aircraft, ELINT for Airborne and Ground Platform and radar subsystems are key orders in pipeline in FY23 for DPIL
 Large part of electronic components (used in Indian defence platforms) are supplied by foreign OEMs. As indigenisation efforts continue, future procurement will see a large portion of defence electronics sourced locally

Bharat Electronics

Besides DPIL, we like Bharat Electronics in the defence electronics space.
 Strong growth in profitability aided by sustained margins. Strong balance sheet, double digit returns ratios
 BUY with a target price of ₹ 315/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 4 Year CAGR(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 131.1 156.1 224.0 310.9 18.9 392.4 510.6 28.2
EBITDA 25.5 43.2 92.0 141.0 40.7 158.9 205.3 20.6
RoCE (%) 11.1 19.5 37.0 23.8 - 24.4 26.4 -
RoE (%) 5.8 13.7 26.7 16.4 - 18.1 19.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Q1FY23 Result Highlights

The company maintains its FY23E revenue guidance at 25-30% growth with ~40% EBITDA margin
 The order book of the company was at | 453.4 crore as of June 2022 end and is currently at | 663.55 crore as on date. Order inflow during Q1FY23 was at | 45.6 crore
 Production orders constitute 61% of the total order book while 26% is from development contracts and 13% from service contracts
 The company has received letter of intent (LoI) for contracts worth | 174 crore (in Radar segment) where negotiations are also completed. Apart from this, company has also completed negotiations for contracts worth | 169 crore where LoI is yet to be received. The company expects order backlog of about | 1,000 crore (if these under negotiation project gets converted into orders)
 Of the total order inflows during Q1FY23, 98% were from production segment. The major orders received in Q1FY23 were avionics production order from Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) worth | 18.3 crore, Avionics production order from DRDO worth | 10.4 crore, electronic warfare (EW) order from DRDO worth | 1.75 crore
 During the quarter, 46% of revenues was from production, 45% from development and 9% from services
 Products wise revenue mix: Radars contributed ~40%, avionics contributed ~25%, Automated Test Equipments (ATE) contributed ~16%
 Customer-wise revenue mix: 40% of revenues was from MoD, ~25% from HAL, 7% from Brahmos and 16% from exports
 The management expects | 2000-3000 crore worth orders in the pipeline for the next three to four years. Fire control system for BrahMos Missile, Avionics for LCA, RWR for Fighter Aircraft, ELINT for Airborne and ground platform and Radar Subsystems are key orders in pipeline for FY23
 Radars, electronic warfare, avionics will continue to be major drivers for order book and revenues in the next couple of years
 Exports contribution to total revenues is expected at ~10% for FY23E. The company is exploring opportunities in exports market
 The company is in process of doubling the existing manufacturing facility at Chennai, which is expected be fully operational from Q3FY23 onwards

 

| Crore Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
Operating Income 68.4 47.3 37.2 83.7 170.5 -59.9 Better execution in development contracts led to sharp incraese in revenues
Other income 1.7 2.5 0.1 1,207.7 2.5 -32.8  
Total Revenue 70.1 49.8 37.4 87.6 173.1 -59.5  
Raw materials costs 24.2 5.7 3.6 565.6 59.7 -59.5  
Employees Expenses 17.5 17.2 13.7 28.2 17.2 1.9  
Other Expenses 5.5 5.0 3.2 71.5 6.2 -11.8  
Total Expenditure 47.1 27.9 20.5 130.2 83.1 -43.3  
EBITDA 21.3 19.4 16.8 26.8 87.5 -75.7  
EBITDA margins (%) 31.1 40.9 45.0 -1394 bps 51.3 -2021 bps Margins declined on change in contracts and revenue mix
Interest 1.6 3.5 1.9   3.5    
Depreciation 2.0 1.9 1.4 38.5 1.9 4.8  
Tax 5.2 4.3 3.3 57.9 23.0 -77.4  
PAT 14.2 12.2 10.2 39.1 61.6 -76.9  

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