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  • CMP : 300.7 Chg : -3.60 (-1.18%)
  • Target : 490.0 (54.57%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

09 Nov 2022

Ethanol volumes, refined sugar exports to boost PAT

About The Stock

Dalmia Bharat sugar (DBS) is the only sugar company present in UP and Maharashtra. The company has sugar crushing capacity of 39000 TCD (5.5 lakh tonnes pa), distillery capacity of 705 KLD (21 crore litre pa), co-generation capacity of 102 MW & wind power of 16.5 MW (total 30 crore units saleable power).

  • The company has expanded its distillery capacity from 8.5 crore litre to 21 crore litre. It would further increase its distillery capacity to 24 crore litre in the next one year through expanding grain based ethanol capacity
Q2FY23 Results

DBS posted revenue dip of 20.5% due to lower sugar volumes.

  • Revenue de-growth of 20.5% on account of 21.4% decline in sugar sales
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 7.3 crore, down 91.6% impacted by high cost of production
  • PAT was at ₹ 11.7 crore, down 80.2%; other income was up 60.6%
What should Investors do?

DBS’ share price has gone up 2x in the last five years (from ₹ 159 in November 2017 to ₹ 317 in November 2022).

  • We expect 36.1% CAGR in distillery revenues, led by ethanol volumes, to boost the company’s earnings at 16.1% CAGR during FY22-24E
  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 490, ascribing a multiple of 10x FY24 earnings.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • DBS is fastest in utilising B-heavy, sugarcane juice and the grain route to produce ethanol. Distillery capacity to grow 2x to 24 crore litre by FY24
  • The company would continue to export high quality refined sugar & utilise higher global refined white sugar prices (current prevailing prices are ₹ 38-₹ 40/kg in rupee) to its benefit. This improves its blended sugar realisation
  • DBS is diverting 25-30% of its sugarcane towards ethanol and also aggressively exporting high quality sugar. We believe the company’s dependency on domestic sugar sales has come down significantly
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Triveni Engineering in our coverage universe.

  • Triveni is one of the largest sugar companies. It would increase its ethanol volumes from 11.8 crore litre in FY22 to 25 crore litre by FY24 and 31 crore litre in FY25. Distillery sales would contribute 34% to revenues by FY25
  • We value the stock at ₹ 380, valuing the business at 14x FY24 PE

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials F2 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E CAGR (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income - 2,110.8 2,685.8 3,018.3 12.4 3,132.6 3,351.0 5.4
EBITDA - 336.6 471.4 447.7 3.4 555.3 635.8 19.2
EBITDA Margin % - 15.9 17.6 14.8 - 17.7 19.0 -
Net Profit - 193.2 270.3 297.3 9.8 339.5 400.9 16.1
EPS (|) - 23.9 33.4 36.7 9.8 42.0 49.5 16.1
P/E - 13.3 9.5 8.6 - 7.6 6.4 -
RoNW % - 9.0 12.6 12.6 - 14.7 15.2 -
RoCE (%) - 11.8 13.3 12.3 - 15.8 17.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q2FY23 Results: Refined sugar exports, ethanol capacity addition to drive earnings, going forward

  • Consolidated revenue witnessed de-growth of 20.5% to | 578.9 crore on account of 21.4% decline in sugar sales. Sugar volume was down 25% to 1.11 lakh tonnes but sugar realisation was slightly higher at | 34.9 /kg. The company was holding sugar inventory of 0.5 lakh tonnes (lt) valued at
    | 33/kg as on September 2022

 

  • Distillery sales were slightly up 1.4% to | 168.2 crore. Distillery volumes were up 5% to 3.16 crore litre. However, we believe distillery realisation would have been down due to inferior mix

 

  • Operating profit saw a sharp dip of 91.6% to | 7.3 crore, mainly on account of higher cost of production due to increase in sugarcane prices and lower recovery rate in the 2021-22 sugar season. Sugar prices were also muted during the quarter despite high festive season demand

 

  • One-time impact of | 5-6 crore (our estimate) towards wage arrears of last three years and increase in levy molasses quota also aggravated the performance in Q2FY23. Net profit was also down 80.2% to | 11.7 crore

 

  • Long term debt was at | 418 crore at a concessional interest rate but the company is holding cash & bank balance of | 572.4 crore as on September 30, 2022

 

  • The company has commissioned 105 KLD grain based distillery at its Jawaharpur plant taking the company’s total distillery capacity to 705 KLD. Further, it would be increasing the capacity of grain based distillery from 105 KLD to 200 KLD, which would take its total distillery capacity to 800 KLD by December 2023

 

  • With the commissioning of new capacities, DBS would be able to produce 17 crore litre of ethanol in FY23 and 20-21 crore litre of ethanol in FY24. C-Heavy, B-heavy & Sugarcane Juice ethanol prices have been revised by |2.75 / litre, | 1.65 / litre & | 2.16 / litre respectively. Further grain based ethanol prices have also been revised by | 2.62 / litre for 2022-23 procurement year 

 

  • DBS is likely to see 4% increase in sugarcane crushing to 55 lt with improvement in sugar recovery rate given last year sugar recoveries were adversely impacted by unseasonal rains & extreme weather conditions

 

  • The company would be diverting ~11% of its sugarcane towards ethanol through sugarcane juice route, ~75% towards B-heavy ethanol and the rest towards C-heavy ethanol route for the levy molasses obligation

 

  • DBS has received 98,076 tonnes of sugar exports quota for 2022-23 in the first tranche approved by the government recently. We believe it would maximise export of refined white sugar given global refined sugar prices are prevailing at | 38-40 /kg (in rupee terms)

 

  • The sugar industry is expected to produce 36.5 million tonnes (MT) of sugar in the 2022-23 season after diverting 4.5 MT sugar for ethanol. Considering 27.5 MT of consumption, the industry is required to export 9 MT of sugar in the season. The government has approved sugar exports of 6 MT in the first tranche and would further approve 3 MT of exports in the second tranche in January-February 2023

 

  • OMCs have floated tender for 600 crore litres of ethanol for 2022-23 (November – October). This would take the ethanol blending level to 12%. With the addition of new capacities by sugar mills in UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka, the industry would be able to supply sufficient quantities for 12% blending

 

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