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Dabur India Ltd>
  • CMP : 531.8 Chg : 6.45 (1.23%)
  • Target : 675.0 (27.12%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

05 May 2023

Inferior product mix & currency impacted margins

About The Stock

Dabur India (DIL) is one of the biggest FMCG companies with a presence in Ayurveda based products across categories. The company has substantial market share in health supplement, OTC & Ethical products, oral care, hair care, home care & juices.

  • The company has a total distribution reach of 7.7 million retail outlets with direct reach of 1.4 million outlets. It plans to increase direct distribution to 1.5 million outlets. Dabur also derives ~50% of its sales through rural regions with a presence in 100,000 villages
Q4FY23 Results

Dabur reported 6.4% sales growth led entirely by pricing growth

  • Domestic sale was up 4.7% YoY, led by strong growth in Food & beverages 
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 409.8 crore, down 9.6% YoY, with margins at 15.3%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was down 22.8% at ₹ 292.8 crore
What should Investors do?

Dabur’s share price has given 44% return in the last five years (from ₹ 366 in April 2018 to 529 in April 2023).

  • Currency headwind in international business & normalise sales of health supplement in post covid period adversely impacting margins 
  •   We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 675 on ascribing 52x FY25 earnings multiple

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The decline in commodity prices would help in improve rural demand scenario. The company would increase advertisement spend to support new products communication in turn volume growth
  • The company is targeting doubling sales of food & beverage category to ₹4000 crore in next five years through extension of existing brands in fruit drinks, homemade & acquired Badshah brand. The company would be entering fizz space in beverage category
  • Rural distribution expanded to 1 lakh villages. Increasing direct distribution reach & e-commerce presence to support under-penetrated categories
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like TCPL in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value stock at ₹ 980 on ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple.

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (23-25E)
Net Sales 8,703.6 9,561.7 10,888.7 11,529.9 8.3 12,729.0 14,113.9 10.6
EBITDA 1,792.4 2,002.7 2,253.8 2,164.1 7.5 2,504.8 2,864.1 15.0
EBITDA Margin % 20.6 20.9 20.7 18.8 - 19.7 20.3 -
Net Profit 1,447.9 1,694.9 1,742.3 1,701.3 5.9 2,007.8 2,286.4 15.9
EPS (|) 8.2 9.6 9.9 9.6 5.7 11.3 12.9 15.9
P/E 64.7 55.3 53.8 55.2 - 46.8 41.1 -
RoNW % 21.9 22.1 20.8 19.0 - 20.4 21.3 -
RoCE (%) 26.1 24.5 24.9 21.3 - 23.0 24.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY23 Results: High base of health supplement & currency headwinds in international market was spoiler

  • Dabur witnessed a revenue growth of 6.4% to |2677.8 crore led by 4.7% growth in domestic business and 1.4% international sales growth. However, after consolidation of acquired Badshah masala business, subsidiary sales growth was 10.9%. Consolidate sales without acquisition was 4%

 

  • Commodity price inflation during the quarter was 6% & the company has taken price hike to the tune of 6%. Considering 4% sales growth (without acquisition), volume would have de-grown by 2%

 

  • Health Supplement (Chawayanprash, Honey) saw sales decline on 3.3% during the quarter mainly due to high base. On a 3-year cagr basis, the business has grown at 8.1%. Digestive business witnessed a growth of 5.6%, on a three-year CAGR basis, this business also saw 8.6% growth. OTC & Ethical business sales were flat & on a 3-year cagr basis, the business grew at a rate of 13.6%

 

  • Chawayanprash sales decline by 30% from | 90 crore to |60 crore in Q4FY23. However, honey saw 6% sales growth. The growth in these categories was impacted by high base of covid.

 

  • Ex-CEO of Himalaya has joined the company & he is forming new strategy for Health supplement vertical. It would be focusing on allopathic doctor’s advocacy & the company has set-up a target of |200 crore with dedicated team of 450 people

 

  • In Home & Personal care category, home care brands saw 10.3% growth with 3-year cagr of 15%. Oral care sales saw 3% sales decline whereas 3-year cagr was 12%. Hair care sales growth was flat (3-year CAGR 8.5%), Shampoo business grew by 2% (3-year cagr 13%) whereas skin care business de-grew by 2% (3-year cagr 2%).

 

  • Hair care sales for FY23 has grown at 1% & the company has gained market share by 130 bps. It holds 17% market share in hair oils & see scope for growth through market share gains given category growth has slowed down considerably. In oral care, toothpaste growth was 5.7% & the company has gained market share in Dabur red by 20 bps.  Odonil recorded 140 bps market share gains in air fresheners category          

 

  • In Foods & Beverage business, beverage (real) sales saw strong 29% growth (3-year cagr 30%). Foods business growth was 22% with similar three-year CAGR growth. The growth in foods including Badshah Masala sales was 34%

 

  • Fruit drinks has recorded sales of |200 crore in FY23. The company is targeting to reach | 500 crore sales in 3-5 years. It targets to reach |4000 crore sales in entire food & beverage category in similar period. However, next quarter would see lapping of high base & impact of unseasonal rains in peak summer months

 

  • Ecommerce channel sales growth was 34% & now in contributes 9% to the sales.             Modern trade channel sales grew in double digit. The company has increased its direct distribution reach to 1.4 million outlets. Its village coverage has increased to 1 lakh villages

 

  • DIL would be separating distribution network for beverage category given it has become sizable business for the company. Further, it would be entering in fizz space, which requires separate sales team & infrastructure

 

  • Food & beverage segment sales of |1981 crore includes | 1700 crore sales of beverages (Juices, fruits drinks) whereas | 281 crore sales of Home-made & acquired Badshah brand.

 

  • The company would continue to focus on existing markets for Badshah, which is Maharashtra, Gujrat & Rajasthan. It would only launch it Pan India once ready with advertisement at larger scale. Spice prices has seen 10-20% inflation in last few months, which would pressurise gross margins in this segment.

 

  • The current sales of Foods (Homemade) brand is | 115 crore. Along with Badshah, the company is targeting | 500 crore sales from foods category in next five years

 

  • During the quarter, secondary sales in HPC segment was 7%. Further unseasonal rains impacted loading of summer products to the distributors, which impacted primary sales by 2 days

 

  • The company has culled down 180 SKUs, which have not done well. The company would continue with the strategy of higher number of product launches in future as well

 

  • Gross margins contracted by 163 bps mainly due to lower contribution of high margin health supplement business & adverse currency movement impacted in international business. Overhead spends were up 169 bps whereas employee & advertisement spends were down by 30 bps & 31 bps respectively. Operating profit de-grew by 9.6% to |409.8 crore with operating margin contraction of 271 bps to 15.7%

 

  • Interest expense was up from |11.8 crore to |32.1 crore. Depreciation provisioning was up 56.8% to 102 crore. The decline in operating profit & higher in interest & depreciation provisioning resulted in net profit de-growth of 22.8% to | 292.8 crore

 

  • The company has taken enabling approval for | 900 crore capex in Nepal for the period of next five years. However, current capex is only for | 90 crore mainly in juices category

 

  • With softening of commodity prices & expected increase in gross margins, first priority would be to increase A&P spends to perk up growth. The stronger growth in health supplement would perk up margins with better product mix in future

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

 

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

 

 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

 

 

 

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