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  • CMP : 494.2 Chg : -3.05 (-0.61%)
  • Target : 700.0 (27.50%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Oct 2022

Leveraging brand, reach to grow in new categories

About The Stock

Dabur India (DIL) is one of the biggest FMCG companies with a presence in Ayurveda based products across categories. The company has a substantial market share in health supplement, OTC & Ethical products, oral care, hair care, home care & juices.

  • The company has a total distribution reach of 6.9 million retail outlets with direct reach of 1.3 million outlets. It plans to increase direct distribution to 1.5 million outlets in the next two years. Dabur also derives ~50% of its sales through rural regions with a presence in 100,000 villages
Q2FY23 Results

Dabur reported 6.9% India sales growth led entirely by pricing.

  • Consolidated sales were up 6.0% YoY, led by strong growth in beverages
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 600.7 crore, down 3.2% YoY, with margins at 20.1%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was down 2.9% at ₹ 490.9 crore
What should Investors do?

Dabur’s share price has given 69% return in the last five years (from ₹ 323 in October 2017 to 549 in October 2022).

  • Acquisition of Badshah Masala is entry into large ₹ 25,000 crore spices & seasoning category. DIL continues to foray in multiple foods categories to increase the addressable market for long term sustainable growth
  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 700 ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Though commodity inflation has impacted consumer sentiments and margins in the near term, DIL could benefit from high growth in agri economy due to increasing agri exports and, in turn, improving rural growth
  • Increasing the addressable market by diversifying in fruit drinks, health foods (under real brand), baby products (under Dabur brand), extending Chyawanprash, Honey into new variants & acquisition of Badshah Masala
  • Rural distribution expanded to 1 lakh villages. Increasing direct distribution reach & e-commerce presence to support under-penetrated categories
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like TCPL in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value stock at ₹ 950 on ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple.

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 8,533.1 8,703.6 9,561.7 10,888.7 7.2 11,876.0 13,428.4 11.1
EBITDA 1,739.6 1,792.4 2,002.7 2,253.8 8.4 2,349.6 2,775.8 11.0
EBITDA Margin % 20.4 20.6 20.9 20.7 - 19.8 20.7 -
Net Profit 1,446.3 1,447.9 1,694.9 1,742.3 6.4 1,922.0 2,239.9 13.4
EPS (|) 8.2 8.2 9.6 9.9 6.3 10.9 12.7 13.4
P/E 67.1 67.0 57.3 55.7 - 50.5 43.4 -
RoNW % 25.7 21.9 22.1 20.8 - 21.4 22.6 -
RoCE (%) 29.6 26.1 24.5 24.9 - 24.6 26.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q2FY23 Results: Strong traction in beverages; targeting | 500 crore sales in Fruits drinks in next three years

  • Dabur witnessed revenue growth of 6% to | 2986.5 crore entirely led by pricing growth considering company has taken 6% prices hikes in the last one year. On a three-year CAGR basis, sales growth is 10.5%

 

  • The current inflation for the company is close to 10%, which is likely to cool off to 6% in the next quarter. The company has taken additional price hike of 2% in Q2 to maintain pricing growth of 6% in the coming quarter. This is expected to result in a sequential improvement in gross margins but gross margins are expected to remain high on a YoY basis

 

  • Domestic business saw sales growth of 6.9% whereas international business witnessed constant currency sales growth of 12.3%. However, given currency depreciation in some Middle Eastern countries, growth in rupee term was 2.5%. On a three-year CAGR basis, domestic business witnessed growth of 12% and international business saw 6.3% growth

 

  • Foods (Homemade), beverages (Real) continued to witness strong growth of 21.2%, 30.5%, respectively. On a three-year CAGR basis, these categories saw 17.2% & 21.7% sales growth, respectively. The company launched Real peanut butter range during the quarter. The company is looking to grow fruit drinks sales to | 500 crore in the next three years

 

  • Within home & personal care segment, home care, oral care & shampoos category sales grew 20.9%, 9.2% & 9.0%, respectively. Even on a three-year CAGR basis, these categories are growing at 10.8%, 15.4% & 15.7%, respectively. However, hair oil category sales grew 1.8% and skin care de-grew 15% (largely due to sanitisers sales in base quarter). On a three-year CAGR basis, these categories saw muted 6.8% and 1.1% growth

 

  • Skin care category growth is muted as it has not yet reached pre-Covid levels. The price increase in the category is high 8-9% whereas local players have not increased prices. The company is all set to gain market share from local players in Gulabari & Fem through consumer promotions, packaging revamp & new launches

 

  • Within healthcare segment, digestives & OTC ethical sales was flat whereas health supplement (Chyawanprash, Honey, Glucose) saw sales de-growth of 12.6% mainly on account of high base quarter sales (during Covid waves). On three-year CAGR basis health supplements, digestives & OTC ethical witnessed 8.9%, 8% & 12.5% growth, respectively

 

  • The company gained market share in 95% of its product portfolio with 410 bps gains in juices & nectars category, 270 gains in digestives, 120 bps gains in Chyawanprash & 40 bps gains in honey. Moreover, Odomos & Odonil brands in home care segment saw 330 bps & 350 bps market share gains, respectively, in Q2. Hair oil, shampoos & oral care segment saw small 20 bps, 40 bps & 10 bps market share gains, respectively

 

  • The company launched Dabur Vedic Tea, Chyawanprash Gur (jaggery) variant in health supplement category. It also introduced Vatika Neelbhringa21 Oil in premium Ayurveda therapeutic hair oil, Dabur Herb’l Olive & Dabur Red Bae fresh gel in oral care. DIL also launched Gulabari Moisturising body lotion under Gulabari Brand. The company forayed into the sanitary napkins category under Fem brand, which would be only sold in e-commerce channels as of now. The contribution of new launches is ~4% to sales (new product contribution in e-commerce channel is 11%)

 

  • Gross margins contracted 346 bps given most FMCG companies were holding high cost raw material inventories during the quarter. The 200 bps contraction was due to commodity inflation 100 bps due to product mix change (low health supplement and high juices sales) and ~50 bps due to consumer promotions

 

  • The company cut down advertisement spends by 209 bps to 5.1% to sales mainly to safeguard operating margin contraction. However, it has increased promotions intensity in Q2. Overhead spends were higher by 48 bps & employee spends were flat. Operating profit witnessed a dip of 3.2% to | 600.7 crore with operating margin contraction of 191 bps to 20.1%. Net profit de-grew 2.9% to | 490.9 crore

 

  • The company acquired 51% stake in Badshah Masala Pvt Ltd (BMPL) for a consideration of | 587.5 crore valuing the company at | 1152 crore. BMPL FY22 sales was | 189.1 crore and its estimate FY23 sales of | 256 crore with 22.9% operating (EBITDA) margins. This translates into acquisition multiple of 4.5x to FY23 sales & 19.6x FY23 EBITDA. The company would acquire remaining 49% stake after five years at similar valuation multiples. With this acquisition, Dabur has forayed into | 25,000 spices & seasoning category

 

  • BMPL sales is concentrated in Maharashtra, Gujarat & Telangana with sales contribution from these states accounting for 35%, 40% & 10%, respectively. It holds market share of ~5% in these core markets. The business commands gross margin of ~40%

 

  • Dabur is looking to leverage its rural reach, ecommerce & modern trade channel strength, procurement efficiency & manufacturing automation capability to grow Badshah brand at a CAGR of 20%+ to reach | 700 crore sales in next five years. It is also looking to extend ‘Badshah’ brand in other food categories

 

  • The company has added 9000 villages in Q2 to increase its reach to 1 lakh villages. However, rural demand is lagging behind urban markets given adverse impact of high inflation of demand conditions. E-commerce channel sales grew 50% and it contributes 9% to sales (vs. ~2% three years back). Modern trade saw double digit growth in Q2 also contributing 10% to the sales

 

  • The company believes high agri growth, MSP hikes, good monsoon & softening inflation to revive rural volumes in medium term. Urban growth would be aided by economic recovery, moderation in inflation & growth of new age channels

  •  The company is undertaking capex of | 325.8 crore at its Indore plant for the toothpaste & juices category. The capacity utilisation for these categories is anywhere between 80-100% at various plants. DIL would complete the capex by March 2024. It would be funded through internal accruals

Disclaimer

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