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  • CMP : 804.9 Chg : 24.40 (3.13%)
  • Target : 1,020.0 (16.44%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 Jan 2023

Maintain revenue guidance of US$1 bn in FY24; DLM business files for IPO

About The Stock

Cyient Ltd (Cyient) offers engineering & development services to aerospace & defence, transportation, E&U, communication and others.

  • Cyient has 300 customers across 14 countries
  • Net debt free and healthy cash flow with OCF/EBITDA ~80%
Q3FY23 Results:

Cyient reported strong Q3 results.

  • Services grew 11.9% QoQ in CC terms with organic contribution of 3.7%
  • Normalised services EBIT margin without acquisitions & exceptional items increased ~190 bps to 15.1%
  • Order intake increased 83.4% QoQ & 18.2% YoY to US$237.1 million (mn)
What should Investors do?

Cyient’s share price has grown by ~1.4x over the past five years (from ~₹ 581 in January 2018 to ~₹ 876 levels in January 2023).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Cyient at ₹ 1020 i.e. 15x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Acquired entities to provide diversification, which, in turn, is expected to provide growth, looking at US$1 bn revenues in FY24
  • Improved demand from large deals, healthy order book and organisation restructuring to accelerate growth
  • Strategic buyout a multi-year arrangement with an auto major
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Cyient, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Strong revenue guidance prompts us to be positive
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,730

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 4,427.4 4,132.4 4,534.4 4.7 6,006.0 6,846.8 7,600.0 18.8
EBITDA 596.0 610.7 821.9 11.1 1,033.0 1,191.3 1,322.4 17.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.5 14.8 18.1 - 17.2 17.4 17.4 -
Net Profit 342.5 363.8 522.3 8.7 604.1 698.0 753.2 13.0
EPS (|) 33.9 33.1 47.3 - 54.8 63.3 68.3 -
P/E 28.1 26.5 18.5 - 16.0 13.8 12.8 -
RoNW (%) 13.4 12.3 16.8 - 18.5 19.0 18.3 -
RoCE (%) 15.9 14.5 19.3 - 21.4 22.3 22.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported services revenue of US$167.9 mn with organic revenue of US$137.2 mn. The overall services revenue grew 11.9% QoQ in CC terms while in dollar terms growth was 11.2%. Organic services revenue growth was 3.7% QoQ in CC terms while in dollar terms the growth was 2.9% QoQ. At the group level including DLM the company reported revenue of US$197 mn, up 13.4% QoQ in CC terms & 12.7% in dollar terms. In rupee terms the revenues came at |1,618 crore, up 15.9% QoQ
  • Vertical wise, at the organic level in CC terms aerospace, Mining, Energy & Utilities (MEU) & New Growth Areas grew 4.4%, 6.8% & 8% QoQ, respectively, while rail & Communications were laggards with growth of -4.9% & 1.3% QoQ
  • Geography wise EMEA continued to lead the growth with 30.2% QoQ, which would be on account of increased contributions from acquired companies while America (48% of mix) reported growth of 5.4% QoQ. Asia Pacific revenue declined 0.9% QoQ
  • The company reported group EBIT margin of 12.3% while services EBIT margin was 13.3% and the normalised services EBIT margin, excluding acquisitions & exceptional items, was 15.1%, up ~190 bps sequentially. The company indicated that the margin improvement was due the tailwinds of operational efficiency +150 bps, volume impact on SG&A spend +140 bps & currency benefit +75 bps mitigated by the headwinds of lower capacity -130 bps & increased SG&A spend -50 bps. The company also indicated that it is moving out of low margin business, which is helping SG&A optimisation and resulting into margin improvement
  • The company mentioned that it has completed the integration of all four acquired companies and is seeing the benefits of integration. Cyient indicated that all companies are accretive at the EBITDA margin level and will be accretive at the EBIT level in the medium term. The company also indicated that it is seeing opportunities with Citec wherein it is synergising its go to market & winning deals. Cyient further indicated that Celfinet will help to grow its communications business
  • The company’s cash & equivalents of | 1,110.8 crore in Q2FY23 has come down to | 616.6 crore in Q3FY23. Cyient indicated that this was due to the deployment of cash towards funding of the acquisitions in Q3
  • The company indicated that it witnessing rebound in aerospace vertical. It mentioned that one of its large OEM in aerospace vertical is scaling up the business as travel has been picking up with the lifting of Covid restrictions globally including China, which is expected to have 2mn people travelling in the near term. It sees accelerated opportunity in this space by increased MRO opportunity. The company further indicated that the aerospace vertical has rebound earlier than expected that it expects to be back to pre-Covid level by H2CY23. On the back of this and increased traction the company indicated that it expects double digit growth in Q4FY23 in aerospace vertical
  • In MEU vertical, the company indicated that mining vertical is driven by decarbonising & energy transition. In the energy & utilities vertical, the company indicated that it is bullish on this vertical on the medium to long term as carbon capture solution transition is picking up not only across Europe but also across the regions of America, Asia Pacific & India. The company indicated that it has won two large deals in this vertical and sees this vertical as one of the growth drivers for the company
  • The company indicated that in the New Growth Areas the growth will be driven by auto & mobility sub-segment with increased traction in Software Defined Vehicle (SDV) and autonomous systems. The company also reiterated that it expects to double its automotive revenue in this fiscal year compared to last year
  • In the Rail vertical, the company indicated that it expects rebound in the vertical but it will take a couple of quarter for recovery to begin. In the semiconductor business the company indicated that though it has performed well in Q3 it expects softness in demand for one to two quarters on account of high inflation and weak consumer demand
  • For FY23, the company the company has maintained its guidance of 14-15% CC of revenue contribution by acquired companies and normalised EBITDA margins in the band of 16-17%. The company has also maintained its normalized EBIT margin of the group at the organic level of 13-14%
  • For FY24 the company has maintained its revenue guidance of US$1 bn & EPS of at least | 60 per share
  • The company indicated that its order intake continues to remain strong. The company during the quarter won five large deals in services with total contract potential of US$59.2 mn while its order intake during the quarter increased by 83.4% to US$237.2 mn. The company further indicated that out of the large deals it won for the quarter, two were in aerospace, two large deals were in MEU & and in auto & mobility
  • The company in the last quarter had indicated that it is evaluating options to divest its DLM business and it recently announced that it has filed DRHP with Sebi to raise up to | 740 crore via IPO and further | 148 crore in pre-IPO placement round
  • The company during the quarter added 18 new customers and added two customers on a QoQ basis in the US$20mn+ category
  • The company’s net employees during the quarter declined 311 taking its employee strength to 14,693. The company’s attrition declined 190 bps QoQ to 26.5% and utilisation improved 630 bps QoQ to 90.9%
  • Regarding the legal lawsuit filed, the company indicated that the legal expenses will continue for a few quarters as it does not expect the judgement in the short-term
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,618.2 1,183.4 36.7 1,396.2 15.9 Company group revenue increased by 13.4% QoQ in CC term while Services revenue grew by 11.9 QoQ in CC terms with organic contribution of 3.7% 
Cost of revenue 1,006.3 753.4 33.6 859.5 17.1  
             
Gross Margin 611.9 430.0 42.3 536.7 14.0  
Gross margin (%) 37.8 36.3 148 bps 38.4 -63 bps  
SG&A expenses 333.6 217.3 53.5 307.7 8.4  
             
EBITDA 278.3 212.7 30.8 229.0 21.5  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.2 18.0 -78 bps 16.4 80 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 69.9 48.7 43.5 63.0 11.0  
EBIT 208.4 164.0 27.1 166.0 25.5  
EBIT Margin (%) 12.9 13.9 -98 bps 11.9 99 bps Normalized Services EBIT margin increased by ~190 bps QoQ to 15.1% due to the tailwinds of operational efficiency +150 bps, volume impact on SG&A spend +140 bps & currency benefit +75 bps mitigated by the headinds of lower capacity -130 bps & increased SG&A spend -50 bps
Other income (less interest) 6.0 10.5 -42.9 -14.8 -140.5  
PBT 214.4 174.5 22.9 151.2 41.8  
Tax paid 51.7 43.0 20.2 29.4 75.9  
PAT 156.0 131.7 18.5 79.1 97.2  

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