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  • CMP : 1,147.1 Chg : 5.80 (0.51%)
  • Target : 910.0 (18.95%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

16 Oct 2022

Aiming at US$1 bn revenues in FY24…

About The Stock

Cyient Ltd (Cyient) offers engineering & development services to aerospace & defence, transportation, E&U, communication and others.

  • Cyient has 300 customers across 14 countries
  • Net debt free and healthy cash flow with OCF/EBITDA ~80%
Q2FY23 Results:

Cyient reported acquisition led strong Q2 results.

  • Services revenue grew 12.3% QoQ in CC terms & group revenue grew 10% QoQ in CC terms
  • Normalised services EBIT margin without acquisitions came in at 13.2%, up by ~110 bps QoQ
  • Won five large deals with total contract potential of US$ 105.2 million (mn)
What should Investors do?

Cyient’s share price has grown by ~1.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 517 in October 2017 to ~₹ 765 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Cyient at ₹ 910 i.e. 14x P/E on FY25E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Acquired entities to provide diversification, which, in turn, is expected to provide growth, looking at US$1 bn revenues in FY24
  • Improved demand from large deals, healthy order book, rebound in DLM business and organisation restructuring to accelerate growth
  • Strategic buyout a multi-year arrangement with an auto major
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Cyient, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Strong revenue guidance prompts us to be positive
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,670

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 4,427.4 4,132.4 4,534.4 4.7 5,777.9 6,586.8 7,245.5 16.9
EBITDA 596.0 610.7 821.9 11.1 993.8 1,146.1 1,260.7 15.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.5 14.8 18.1 - 17.2 17.4 17.4 -
Net Profit 342.5 363.8 522.3 8.7 582.0 672.4 718.8 11.2
EPS (|) 33.9 33.1 47.3 - 52.8 61.0 65.2 -
P/E 24.6 23.1 16.2 - 14.5 12.6 11.7 -
RoNW (%) 13.4 12.3 16.8 - 17.9 18.6 17.8 -
RoCE (%) 15.9 14.5 19.3 - 20.7 21.7 21.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Services revenues came in US$151.1 mn with organic revenue US$133.2 mn & (up 10.2% QoQ, 12.3% QoQ in CC), organic growth was 3% in CC growth while the rest came from acquisitions. DLM business declined 3.3% QoQ to US$23.7 mn. This resulted in overall revenue growth of 8.2% QoQ at the company level to US$174.8 mn (up 10.0% QoQ in CC). Citec, Celfinet, Grit Consulting & Strategic buyout contributed 4.3%, 3.5%, 1.1% & 1.3% to the revenue, respectively. In rupee terms the company reported revenue
    | 1,396.2, up 11.7% QoQ & 25.6% YoY
  • Vertical wise Aerospace (23% of the mix) increased 3% QoQ while transportation was a laggard reporting a decline of 11.6% QoQ. The company indicated that it is witnessing increased traction in aftermarket of aerospace verticals as number of flying passenger count continue to ramp up creating opportunities in this space in terms of repair & annul maintenance contracts (AMCs) & expects high teen growth in aerospace aftermarket. It also indicated that 15-20% of the aerospace revenue comes from defence. Communications (27% of the mix) declined 0.8% QoQ due execution issues in Q2 but indicated that it will recover, going forward
  • Geography wise EMEA led the growth with 41.6% QoQ on account of contributions from the acquisitions which are Europe based while America reported a growth of 5.4% QoQ. Asia Pacific revenue declined by 6.8% QoQ
  • In Q2, the company’s profitability was impacted by the following exceptional & one-time expenses. It incurred one-time expense of | 21.6 crore pertaining to a lawsuit filed against one of its subsidiaries. It expects some spillover in these costs in Q3 and Q4 but large portion of it booked in Q2 itself. It also incurred one-time M&A related expenses of | 21.1 crore in the quarter
  • The company’s margins were impacted by the above exceptional & one-time expenses leading to overall reported EBIT margin of 8.8%. However, the normalised EBIT margin excluding them were at 11.9%, up 40 bps QoQ despite the wage hike rolled out in Q2. DLM EBIT margin increased 410 bps QoQ to 8.3%
  • Normalised services EBIT margin was at 13.2%, up ~110 bps. EBIT margin improved on account of the following tailwinds: a) operational efficiency +126 bps, b) volume impact on SG&A +120 bps, c) higher billings days +80 bps with the following tailwinds a) impact of wage hikes -154 bps & b) increase in SG&A -60 bps
  • Guidance: The company has maintained its guidance of 13-15% CC revenue growth for the group at organic level in FY23 and expects DLM to grow in high single digit. The company completed all four acquisitions and based on it is guiding an incremental (i.e. over and above 13-15% organic growth) 14-15% CC revenue growth for FY23, resulting into overall revenue guidance (organic + inorganic) of 27%-30% for FY23. The company also guiding for US$1bn revenue for FY24 and minimum |60 EPS in FY24
  • Cyient is now guiding for normalised EBIT margin guidance (due to impact of exceptional & one-time expenses) in the band of 13-14% for FY23 & normalized EBITDA margin of 16-17%. The company indicated that the acquired businesses are marginally accretive & will improve the EBIT margin by 50 bps in FY24. Cyient also indicated the following levers for margin improvement i) price increase, ii) increase in offshore mix, iii) operational efficiency iv) currency tailwinds
  • The company indicated that its order intake is strong. It has won five large deals with total contract potential of ~US$105.2 million (four from services and one from DLM)
  • Cyient indicated that the demand environment remains strong despite the macroeconomic uncertainties but mentioned that it has witnessed some delay in decision making from client’s. The company indicated that there has been no project cancellation and it has not seen major significant cuts in clients spend or change in client’s strategy
  • The company indicated that it has formed a sub-committee for evaluating the company’s strategy in its DLM businesses, going ahead. The sub-committee will evaluate possibilities of part divestment/IPO or partnership with a strategic investor as this business is diluting on Cyient financials. The company also indicated that to tap the growing opportunity for DLM it is planning to incur capex for setting up factories in Vietnam & Mexico
  • The company added 1,423 net employees in the quarter taking its employee strength to 15,004. The company’s attrition increased 50 bps QoQ to 28.4% and utilisation improved 370 bps QoQ to 84.6%
  • The company declared interim dividend of | 10 per share & fixed October 27, as record date for determining the eligible shareholders for payment of dividend
 
Variance Analysis
 
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,396.2 1,111.6 25.6 1,250.1 11.7 Overall revenue grew by 10% QoQ in CC terms. Services reported growth of 12.3% QoQ in CC terms (organic contribution of 3% QoQ) while DLM decline of 3.3% QoQ
Cost of revenue 859.5 684.7 25.5 790.0 8.8  
             
Gross Margin 536.7 426.9 25.7 460.1 16.6  
Gross margin (%) 38.4 38.4 4 bps 36.8 163 bps  
SG&A expenses 307.7 219.5 40.2 265.4 15.9  
             
EBITDA 229.0 207.4 10.4 194.7 17.6  
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.4 18.7 -226 bps 15.6 74 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 63.0 51.7 21.9 51.1 23.3  
EBIT 166.0 155.7 6.6 143.6 15.6  
EBIT Margin (%) 11.9 14.0 -212 bps 11.5 40 bps Normalized Services EBIT margin increased by ~110 bps improved on account of the following tailwinds: a) operational efficiency +126 bps, b) volume impact on SG&A +120 bps, c) higher billings days +80 bps with the following tailwinds a) impact of wage hikes -154 bps & b) increase in SG&A -60 bps
Other income (less interest) -14.8 5.9 -350.8 16.0 -192.5  
PBT 151.2 161.6 -6.4 159.6 -5.3 PBT declined due to lower other income & higer financial expenses
Tax paid 29.4 40.3 -27.0 43.5 -32.4  
PAT 79.1 121.4 -34.8 116.0 -31.8  

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