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  • CMP : 360.1 Chg : 19.55 (5.74%)
  • Target : 300.0 (20.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

31 Jan 2023

Higher than anticipated reversals aid earnings…

About The Stock

CSB Bank is a south based private sector bank with Kerala contributing ~30% of total advances. Changed strategy in various aspects of lending have led to a transformation and improved performance in the past few years.

  • Gold, SME are key lending segments comprising ~45%, ~12%, respectively, of the book
  • Liability franchise is healthy with loyal customer base of ~21 lakh
Q3FY23

Strong performance; further improvement in NPA.

  • NII up 15.3% YoY, 7.6% QoQ, NIM up 20 bps at 5.8%, yields at 11%
  • C/I at 56% QoQ while provision witnessed a reversal. PAT reported growth of 5.2% YoY, 29.4% QoQ
  • GNPA down 20 bps QoQ to 1.45%, NNPA down 15 bps QoQ to 0.42%
What should Investors do?

CSB Bank has given ~10% returns in the past two years. Continued focus on gold loans and gradual improvement in non-gold segment are seen aiding sustainable growth with control on credit cost, thereby driving RoA.

  • Thus, we retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

CSB bank is expected to deliver credit growth higher than industry with RoA of ~2%+. Rolling to FY25E, we value CSB Bank at ~1.3x FY25E ABV with a revised target price of ₹ 300 vs. ₹ 275 earlier.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Investment in branches, employees and technology to keep opex elevated in the near term though benefit to accrue gradually
  • On track performance and gradual ramp up in liability franchise to aid business growth. Margins to sustain at ~5% levels
  • Sustenance of gold business as a proportion of book coupled with gradual improvement in non-gold segment to bring diversification and steady RoA
  • Management guidance remains encouraging in terms of growth & earnings
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from CSB Bank, we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1100

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
NII 592.3 941.4 1,153.3 37.9 1,329.9 1,555.8 1,880.6 17.7
PPP 280.6 515.5 613.7 258.2 692.9 820.4 1,038.3 19.2
PAT 12.7 218.4 458.5 - 523.4 576.1 709.9 15.7
ABV (|) 91.9 107.3 138.0 - 167.3 196.8 234.5 -
P/E 340.9 19.9 9.5 - 8.3 7.5 6.1 -
P/ABV 2.7 2.3 1.8 - 1.5 1.3 1.1 -
RoA 0.1 1.0 1.9 - 1.9 1.8 1.9 -
RoE 0.8 10.5 19.0 - 18.0 16.8 17.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 349.7 339.8 303.3 15.3 325.0 7.6 Led by healthy business growth and margin expansion
NIM (%) 5.8 5.9 5.4 39 bps 5.6 20 bps  
Other Income 89.9 61.1 52.2 72.4 44.9 100.0 Processing fee jumped 148% YoY & 27% QoQ
               
Net Total Income 439.6 400.9 355.5 23.7 369.9 18.9  
Staff cost 151.7 131.9 122.1 24.3 129.0 17.6 Higher income levels kept CI ratio steady at ~56%
Other Operating Expenses 94.5 90.2 85.9 10.1 83.6 13.1  
               
PPP 193.4 178.9 147.6 31.1 157.4 22.9  
Provision -15.0 -6.5 -50.6 - -3.7 - Recovery in gold loan portfolio aided reversals
PBT 208.4 185.4 198.1 5.2 161.1 29.4  
Tax Outgo 52.5 46.4 49.9 5.2 40.5 29.4  
PAT 156.0 139.1 148.3 5.2 120.6 29.4 Strong topline and provision reversals aided earnings
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 271 289 389 -30.3 291 -6.8 Slippage ratio further moderated to 0.6%
NNPA 78 97 200 -61.1 99 -21.4  
Gross Advances 18,457 18,643 14,827 24.5 17,661 4.5 Gold loan segment grew 51% YoY
Deposit 22,664 22,664 19,056 18.9 20,987 8.0 CASA ratio moderated to 31.4% vs. 34.3% in Q2FY23

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Aim to focus more on core fee income and expect growth of 14-15% in the medium term
  • Margins to normalise in the near term and expected to sustain at ~5% levels
  • Reversals during the quarter were aided by recoveries in gold loan segment
  • Cost to income ratio expected at 58-60% levels in the near term and by FY24 end, CI ratio to be 42-45%. Higher opex to be largely due to investments in tech
  • Gold loan portfolio comprises ~40% balance transfer from NBFCs/banks and remaining from new to bank customers
  • Long term target of advances mix: retail – 30%, gold – 20%, SME – 20% and balance to be wholesale
  • The bank will gradually ramp up its liability franchise while growth will be visible in the next 12 months
  • CASA ratio not to fall below 30% levels. LCR at 124%
  • Top 20 depositors have ~12% share in total deposits
  • Till Q3FY23, the bank has opened ~100 branches (40 in Q3FY23)

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com. Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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