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  • CMP : 391.7 Chg : 0.50 (0.13%)
  • Target : 275.0 (18.03%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Oct 2022

Treasury losses mar PAT; outlook remains healthy

About The Stock

CSB Bank is a south based private sector bank with Kerala contributing ~30% of total advances. Changed strategy in various aspects of lending have led to transformation and improved performance in the past few years.

  • Gold, SME key lending segments comprising ~44%, ~13%, respectively, of book
  • Liability franchise is healthy with loyal customer base of ~21 lakh
Q2FY23

Steady performance; treasury loss plays spoiler.

  • NII up 16.7% YoY, 4.6% QoQ, NIM surge 43 bps at 5.6%, up 38 bps YoY
  • C/I at 57.5% QoQ, while provision witnessed reversal. PAT reported sluggish growth of 1.7% YoY due to treasury losses & no sale of PSLC
  • GNPA down 14 bps QoQ to 1.65%, NNPA down 3 bps QoQ to 0.57%
What should Investors do?

CSB Bank has given flattish returns in the past two years post the initial run-up. The management’s focus on sustainable & quality loan growth with control on credit cost to drive profitability.

We retain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

CSB bank is expected to deliver a credit growth higher than industry with RoA of 1.5%+. Thus, we value CSB Bank at ~1.4x FY24E ABV with a revised target price of ₹ 275 vs. ₹ 250 earlier.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • PSLC income likely in H2FY23 will boost other income & earnings in FY23E
  • Investment in branches, employees and technology to keep opex elevated in the near term, though benefit to accrue gradually
  • Management aims at 25% CAGR, RoA at 1.6-1.8% in the long run
  • Diversification into non-growth loans to impart growth; margins likely to decline
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from CSB Bank, we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22 - FY24E)
NII 440.0 592.3 941.4 1,153.3 37.9 1,319.6 1,581.1 17.1
PPP 13.4 280.6 515.5 613.7 258.2 662.0 803.7 14.4
PAT -197.4 12.7 218.4 458.5
ABV (|) 138.5 91.9 107.3 138.0 - 164.0 189.9 -
P/ABV 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.7 - 1.4 1.2 -
RoA -1.2 0.1 1.0 1.9 - 1.7 1.5 -
RoE -17.0 0.8 10.5 19.0 - 16.3 15.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 325.0 348.4 278.4 16.7 310.7 4.6 Aided by improved business growth & margin expansion
NIM (%) 5.6 5.3 5.2 38 bps 5.2 43 bps Primarily attributed to rate transmission
Other Income 44.9 55.5 59.8 -24.8 54.9 -18.1 Treasury loss & no sale of PSLC impacted other income
               
Net Total Income 369.9 403.9 338.2 9.4 365.5 1.2  
Staff cost 129.0 128.7 119.2 8.3 122.2 5.6 CI to remain elevated in the near term
Other Operating Expenses 83.6 90.5 69.6 20.0 88.6 -5.7  
  212.6   188.8 12.6 210.8    
PPP 157.4 184.7 149.4 5.3 154.7 1.7  
Provision -3.7 3.5 -9.1 -58.9 1.7 -322.0  
PBT 161.1 181.2 158.5 1.7 153.0 5.3  
Tax Outgo 40.5 45.3 39.9 1.7 38.5 5.2  
PAT 120.6 135.9 118.6 1.7 114.5 5.3 Steady performance marred by treasury loss
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 291 279 587 -50.4 293 -0.7 Steady asset quality
NNPA 99 94 370 -73.3 97 2.2  
Gross Advances 17,468 17,661 14,288 22.3 16,339 6.9 Primarily driven by gold loans
Deposit 20,987 20,987 19,056 10.1 20,267 3.6 CASA growth higher than overall deposits

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The management sees traction in non-gold segments. Retail will take some time to pick-up. Aim for 15% YoY credit growth and CAGR of 25% in next three years
  • NIMs to be maintained at 5-5.5% in the next 12 months
  • Target of opening 100 branches every year for the next few years
  • Investment in branches and technology to be undertaken ahead. CI aimed at 55-60%. These investments to aid business growth ahead. By end of 2030E, CI ratio to be <45%
  • PSLC pricing not attractive. Thus, the bank has not sold any PSLC in Q2FY23. PSLC income likely in H2FY23 as the management expects to get better pricing. Have buffer of ~ | 34 crore
  • Significant focus on liabilities accretion to fund asset growth with minimal dependence on wholesale funding. The management will primarily focus on customer acquisition strategy
  • GNPA of <2% and NNPA of <1% to keep credit cost lower
  • In gold loan segment, tonnage traction to increase with customer addition and steady prices. Gold loans not to surpass ~45% of book
  • Gold loans led to higher return ratios despite higher CaR. Diversification of advances to result in reduction in return ratios ahead. The management will focus on non-interest income and expect RoA to be 1.7-1.8%

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com. Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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