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  • CMP : 255.7 Chg : 6.50 (2.61%)
  • Target : 415.0 (10.67%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jul 2022

Strong topline growth; high input cost drags margin

About The Stock

Crompton Greaves Consumer (CGCEL) is among India’s leading fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) companies, present in electrical consumer durables (~77% of revenue) and lighting businesses (~14% of revenue). The company has acquired Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances Limited which contributes ~13% to the revenue

  • Market leader in the domestic fan industry with value market share of 29%. The company has enhanced focus on increasing market share in home appliances categories like (air coolers, water heater and kitchen appliances)
  • Robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of ~30% each (three-year average), respectively, with stringent working capital policy
Q1FY23 Results

Favourable base and consolidation of ‘Butterfly’ drives topline growth; high raw material costs restricted EBITDA margin expansion

  • Reported consolidated revenues are up by ~77% YoY to ~₹ 1863 crore led by consolidation of ‘Butterfly’ revenues and strong growth in ECD & lighting revenues aided by demand revival and favourable base in Q1FY23    
  • Gross margin declined ~100 bps YoY owing to higher RM costs. However, savings in other costs restricted EBITDA margin fall at 10 bps YoY to 11.8%
  • PAT increased by 28% YoY to ₹ 121 crore; tracking strong topline growth  
What should Investors do?

CGCEL’s share price has given return of ~80% in the past five years (from ~₹ 208 in July 2017 to ~₹ 375 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price & Valuation

We value CGCEL at ₹ 415 i.e. 40x P/EFY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Total ~1.7 crore new houses under PMAY, urbanisation and rising aspiration are demand boosters of home appliances
  • Expanding Butterfly products pan India leveraging existing dealer networks
  • Plans additional revenues by entering into new category ‘Built-in kitchen’ segment. Built-in kitchen industry is pegged at ₹ 2200 crore; growing at 10%. Company aims 10% market share in next three years
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Polycab India in our coverage. Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22%-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a 3-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2680

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 4,478.9 4,520.3 4,803.5 5,394.1 0.1 7,227.1 8,185.5 23.2
EBITDA 584.3 599.1 720.5 769.4 0.1 909.3 1,086.3 18.8
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.0 13.3 15.0 14.3 - 12.6 13.3 -
Net Profit 401.4 496.4 616.7 578.4 0.1 524.5 658.2 6.7
EPS (|) 6.4 7.9 9.8 9.2 - 8.4 10.5 -
P/E (x) 58.6 47.4 38.1 40.6 - 44.8 35.7 -
RoE (%) 36.6 33.8 31.9 24.0 - 20.5 22.6 -
RoCE (%) 42.8 38.3 34.4 16.2 - 16.0 19.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Strong topline growth; Margin under pressure 

  • CGCEL’s reported consolidated revenue at ~| 1863 crore is up by 77% led by consolidation of ‘Butterfly’ and a favourable base.
  • Segment wise, ECD segment revenues increased by 52% YoY to | 1347 crore; led by 55% and 88% revenue growth in both Fans and Appliances segments respectively (together they contribute ~80% to ECD revenues). However, pump segment grew at lower rate (I-direct estimate: 29%) due to slower demand of agri pumps. Lighting segment revenues increased by ~58% YoY to | 262 crore led by 82% growth in the B2C lighting. However, demand of B2G lightings remained muted due to slow government expenditure.
  • On a three year CAGR basis, CGCEL’s core business revenues (i.e. excl. Butterfly) grew at CAGR of 6% led by ECD segment revenue CAGR of 8%
  • Price hikes (3-5% YoY) and improved product mix helped partially offset higher raw material costs. As a result, gross margin fall was limited to 100 bps YoY. Further savings in other expenditure, restricted overall EBITDA margin fall to 10 bps YoY at 11.8%.
  • Other income declined sharply by 47% YoY and interest outgo increased 2x to ~| 23 crore, owing to higher debt. Finally, PAT rose by ~28% YoY to ~| 121 crore; tracking strong topline growth

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

 

  • Market Share Gains: CGCEL command value market share of 28% in the fan segment, which is up by 2% over last year

 

  • Demand Outlook: Demand is likely to be subdued in the near term in the Lightings and Fans business due to inflation as well as increase in GST rates. The company’s Pumps business continues to face challenges due to inflation in commodity prices and has not seen volume growth. With easing commodity prices, CGCEL plans to pass on the benefits to consumers in order to enhance the volume growth. The company has doubled its advertisement and promotion in Q1FY23 to ~| 40 crores and the same amount of advertisement expense is expected to continue for the coming quarters. CGCEL expects to see market share gains across its segments in FY23.

 

  • Appliances: On the appliances front, Air Coolers segment have reported a strong revenue growth of 218% to | 100 crore led by 209% volume growth. Air cooler revenues have grown at a CAGR of ~45% in the last three years

 

  •  Alternate channel contribution to company’s standalone sales has increased from 9% to 12% (other than offline channel)

 

  • Margins: According to the management, commodity prices started cooling off in May and effects of the same is expected to be seen in Q2FY23. Increase in input costs impacted the margins in April and May 2022, however, exit margins are coming back to FY22 levels (14%) and the company plans to sustain them. The management also commented that its structural margins have been improving month-on-month.

 

  • Butterfly Business: The management commented that synergies of both the businesses are under implementation and will be reviewed from time to time. The company plans to expand further into the South region. CGCEL’s long term plans for Butterfly is to maintain business growth and it has taken various initiatives under project Unnati to save operational costs. This will help in improving margins as well as enable expansion and growth.

 

  • Built-in Kitchen Appliances Segment: CGCEL launched Built-in Kitchen Appliances with inauguration of ‘Crompton Signature Studios’. It has a comprehensive range of 38 models across Chimneys, Gas Hobs, Built-in Ovens & Microwaves and dishwashers. CGCEL has conducted consumer research to meet unmet demands and aims to reach to the consumers through its differentiated product range. According to the management the current market size of this segment is ~| 2200 crore and is growing at a rate of 10% YoY. The company aims to become one of the top 3 players in this segment in the coming 3 years. It plans to use different channels such as Exclusive Branded Outlets (EBOs), Kitchen Dealers, Retail Outlets, Multi Branded Outlets (MBOs) and E-Commerce. It is planning to launch ~50 EBOs in the next 3 months. In the next few months, the company is planning to roll out its signature studios in 10 cities which include metro cities majorly and the studios are already operational in 5 out of these 10 cities. By June 2023, the company plans to launch these studios in top 300 cities and is aiming for a market share of 10% in this segment
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,862.9 1,811.1 1,050.5 77.3 1,547.9 20.4   Favourable base and consolidation of Butterfly helped drive revenue growth in Q1FY23
Other Income 10.4 7.2 19.6 -46.9 22.2 -53.0    
Raw Material Exp 1,278.0 1,240.6 710.7 79.8 1,085.7 17.7   Delay in price hike draggs gross margin down by ~100 bps YoY
Employee Exp 143.4 126.8 88.5 62.0 83.5 71.8    
Advertisement Exp* 45.1 43.5 25.0 80.3 35.0 28.8   Advertisement expenditure is reaching back to its normalised level
Other expenditure 176.5 181.1 101.3 74.3 114.9 53.5    
EBITDA 219.9 219.1 125.0 75.9 228.8 -3.9    
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.8 12.1 11.9 -10 bps 14.8 -297 bps   Higher raw material costs were partially offset by savings in other costs resulting a marginal drop in EBITDA margin
Depreciation 27.6 17.2 7.6 264.1 14.5 90.3    
Interest 22.5 30.6 10.1 123.5 10.6 113.4    
Excp item 6.4              
PBT 173.9 178.6 127.0 36.9 212.9 -18.3    
Tax 47.9 44.9 32.2 48.6 36.4 31.8    
PAT 121.0 133.7 94.8 27.7 176.6 -31.5   One time tax benefit in the base period resulting PAT decline in Q4
Key Metrics                
ECD 1,347.2 1,258.3 884.4 52.3 1,230.9 9.4   ECD segment revenue growth was driven by fan and appliances business which were up by 55% and 88% YoY respectively
Lighting & Products 262.3 298.9 166.1 57.9 317.0 -17.3   Revenue growth was led by strong growth in the B2C LED business by 82% YoY, however revenues from B2G segment was lower
Butterfly 253.5 253.9 NA     NA   Butterfly revenues grew 76% YoY (like for like basis) supported by new product launches and expansion of dealer networks

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