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CreditAccess Grameen Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,467.0 Chg : -41.50 (-2.75%)
  • Target : 1,375.0 (19.57%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 May 2023

On track performance; valuations justified…

About The Stock

CreditAccess Grameen (CAG) is a Bengaluru based MFI promoted by Credit Access India BV (CAI), with ~73% stake as of March 2023. It caters to low income households lacking access to formal source of financing.

  • Operations are spread across 14 states and one union territory (UT) with 1,786 branches and 16,759 employees with a major presence in Karnataka (contributes ~36% of AUM), Maharashtra (~22%) and Tamil Nadu (~21%)
Q4FY23

Robust performance led by healthy business growth and NIMs.

  • Gross loan portfolio was up 26.7% YoY at ₹ 21031 crore, led by customer addition and increase in average ticket size
  • NII up 34.2% YoY, NIMs up 30 bps QoQ at 12.2%, C/I down to ~30%
  • Credit cost steady at 0.6%, PAT grew 86% YoY, 38% QoQ at ₹ 296 crore
  • GNPA down 50 bps QoQ to 1.21%. Collection efficiency largely steady
What should Investors do?

CAG is a niche player with sustained market leadership and consistent performance across cycles. Hence, we believe CAG is well positioned to capture the huge untapped opportunity in the MFI space via deeper penetration in new, existing geographies and increase in customer base.

  • Thus, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value CAG at ~2.9x FY25E ABV and revise our target price to ₹ 1375 per share from ₹ 1100 earlier

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The management has maintained guidance of healthy growth in gross loans at 24-25% YoY driven by 14-15% growth in volume (customer base) and 8-10% increase in value (ticket size)
  • Repricing of loans and improvement in CoF to aid margins. The management guidance was at 12–12.2% margins in FY24E
  • Branch addition to remain steady at 10%. Controlled opex and lower credit cost to aid earnings and, thus, enable continued superior RoA of ~4.5% and RoE of ~20% in FY24-25E
Alternate Stock

Apart from CAG, in our coverage we like IndusInd Bank.

  • IndusInd Bank is one of the largest private banks with a pan-India presence of 2600 branches as of March 2023
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1450

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 1,055.1 1,361.3 1,583.2 2,114.2 26.1 2,642.1 3,214.8 23.3
PPP 698.9 951.8 1,077.5 1,506.4 29.2 1,909.6 2,345.0 24.8
PAT 335.5 131.4 353.1 826.0 35.0 1,140.5 1,365.2 28.6
ABV (|) 189.9 237.3 267.3 321.4 - 393.1 479.1 -
P/E 46.7 128.7 48.0 20.9 - 15.1 12.7 -
P/ABV 5.7 4.6 4.1 3.4 - 2.8 2.3 -
RoE (%) 13.2 4.1 9.0 17.8 - 20.1 19.7 -
RoA (%) 3.4 1.0 2.2 4.2 - 4.6 4.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
NII 619 461 34.2 541 14.5   Driven by strong busines growth and yield expansion
NIM (%) 12.2 11.3 90 bps 11.9 30 bps   Led by improvement in yields and steady CoF
Other Income 101 96 5.6 55 84.7    
Net Total Income 721 557 29.3 596 21.0    
Staff cost 135 112 19.8 127 5.8    
Other Operating Expenses 83 76 9.1 89 -6.4   CI ratio declined from 34% to 30.2% YoY
PPP 503 369 36.3 379 32.5    
Provision 105 151 -30.3 89 17.8   Gross credit cost stood steady QoQ at 0.6%.
PBT 398 218 82.5 290 37.1    
Tax Outgo 101 59 72.0 74 36.0    
PAT 297 159 86.4 216 37.5   PAT boosted by healthy topline and lower provisions
Key Metrics              
Gross loans (₹ crore) 21,031 16,600 26.7 17,786 18.2   Customer addition and increase in ticket size led to uptick in gross loans
Borrowers (nos 000) 4,264 3,824 11.5 3,939 8.3   Added 3.25 lakh borrowers in Q4FY23
Yields (%) 19.7 18.5 120 bps 19.6 10 bps    
GNPA (%) 1.21 3.61 -240 bps 1.71 -50 bps   Gradual improvement in asset quality

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management guidance for FY24 – Gross loan portfolio growth to be 24-25% YoY, NIMs – 12-12.2%, credit cost – 1.6-1.8%, RoA – 4.7-4.9%, RoE – 20-21%
  • During the quarter, CAG added ~3.25 lakh customers taking the customer count to 42.6 lakh. The management expects 14-15% growth in total customer base in FY24
  • During the quarter, 59 new branches were added taking the branch count to 1786 and aims to add ~170-180 branches in FY24
  • Despite a 250 bps hike in repo rate, CAG increased interest rates by ~60 bps only. The company will continue to offer interest rates to its customers at lower rates
  • The management overlay was | 13.8 crore (included in Stage 1 set aside against the legacy MMFL book of | 131 crore, which accounts for only 0.6% of overall gross loan portfolio
  • Yields and CoF to increase ~20-30 bps but NIMs to remain steady
  • During Q3, opex was slightly higher due to public NCD cost, which was not there in Q4. Hence, opex was flat QoQ
  • Average ticket size is set to increase ~10% in the near term led by increase in customer vintage
  • Mortgage, 2-W and unsecured loans will drive retail segment growth. Gold loans do not see much volumes coming in
  • The management has guided for ~10-15% recoveries over two to three years. Recovery target was | 50 to 100 crore every year

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.     

 

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