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Computer Age Management Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,202.7 Chg : -88.95 (-2.70%)
  • Target : 2,400.0 (16.62%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 May 2023

Non-MF revenue on track; regulatory overhang weighs

About The Stock

CAMS is a mutual fund transfer agency. It provides technology-driven financial infrastructure & services to MFs and other financial institutions.

  • Largest registrar and transfer agent (RTA) of MFs with ~69% market share
  • It has consistently operated with high (~30%) margins and return ratios
Q4FY23

Steady quarter; net flows continue to remain positive.

  • Revenue from operations was up 2.5% YoY, 2.3% QoQ to ₹ 249 crore on account of moderate volume growth
  • EBITDA was largely flattish on a sequential basis (up 0.5 YoY) at ₹ 117 crore; margins declined 156 bps YoY at ~46%
  • PAT was at ₹ 74.4 crore, largely flat YoY, QoQ as margins declined
What should Investors do?

CAMS’ share price has remained volatile in the recent past and offers a good entry opportunity. Leadership in the mutual fund business remains a play on the AMC industry. Focus on non-MF streams (AIF, insurance repository, payment aggregator) to aid growth and diversification. However, anticipated reduction in TER remains a near term overhang.

  • Thus, we upgrade our rating on the stock from HOLD to BUY
Target Price and Valuation

We value CAMS at ~31x FY25E EPS and revise our target price from ₹ 2500 to ₹ 2400 per share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Given the huge growth opportunity, CAMs being market leader in duopoly RTA segment augur well to benefit from structural sustained growth
  • Opex (tech, business promotion, etc) to remain controlled and aid margins
  • Higher share of non-MF revenue to aid overall revenue growth and diversification. Higher contribution from non-MF business to aid valuation
  • Awaiting clarity of reduction in TER and its impact on yields
Alternate Stock

Apart from CAMS, in our coverage we also like HDFC AMC.

  • HDFC AMC is among the largest and profitable mutual funds with a QAAUM of ~₹ 4.4 lakh crore as on March 2023
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2050

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
Revenue 721.3 735.3 926.9 998.6 11.5 1,100.1 1,208.8 10.0
EBITDA 286.6 296.0 424.1 421.2 13.7 487.2 556.4 14.9
PAT 172.4 205.3 286.9 285.1 - 333.2 386.1 -
EPS (|) 35.3 42.1 58.7 58.2 - 68.0 78.8 -
Managed AUM (| lakh crore) 18.2 20.0 26.7 28.0 - 31.0 34.5 -
RoCE (%) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 - 0.5 0.5 -
P/E (x) 58.2 48.9 35.1 35.4 - 30.3 26.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY22 YoY Q3FY23 QoQ Comments
Revenue 249.2 243.2 2.5 243.6 2.3 Led by moderate growth in volumes
Yield (bps) 3.6 3.6 -8 bps 3.5 6 bps  
Other income 7.9 4.3 85.4 7.1 11.3  
Total income 257.1 247.4 3.9 250.6 2.6  
Operating expenses 140.1 131.0 7.0 135.4 3.5  
EBIDTA (incl other inccome) 117.0 116.4 0.5 115.3 1.5 Subdued revenue kept EBITDA largely flat 
EBITDA margin (%) 45.5 47.0 -156 bps 46.0 -50 bps  
Depreciation 16.4 15.7 4.5 15.5 5.7  
Interest 2.0 1.8 13.4 2.0 2.0  
PBT 98.6 98.9 -0.4 97.8 0.8  
Tax 24.2 25.1 -3.7 24.2 -0.2  
PAT 74.4 73.8 0.7 73.6 1.1 Earnings largely steady
             
Total AUM served 2800000 2670000 4.9 2780000 0.7 Market share largely steady at ~68%
Equity 1300000 1100000 18.2 1290000 0.8  
Debt 1500000 1570000 -4.5 1490000 0.7  
             
Total transaction volume (Nos. Cr) 12.4 11.5 7.6 11.7 6.2 Growth in transaction volumes continues to remain subdued

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • FY24 Guidance - Margins at ~40%, daily API hits to grow 2x
  • Growth in total transaction volumes was driven by SIP transactions (primarily led by retail participation)
  • Non asset based revenue growth was driven by growth in allied services (MF central, application services)
  • Non MF revenues were driven by AIF vertical and payments. It is expected to show strong traction led by increased mandates. Non-MF share in overall revenues to increase from 11% (currently) to ~15%
  • The Alternatives business grew 21% YoY led by accelerated signings and rapid adoption
  • Yields saw marginal pressure due to telescopic pricing, change in equity-debt mix and discounts given to some customers. The management will remain watchful on TER regulation
  • Esop charge during the year was | 26.7 crore vs. | 25.3 crore in FY22. This is expected to decline to | 14 crore in FY24E (excluding any new plan announced in FY24E)
  • Opex - ~| 60 lakh spent on marketing during the quarter. Overall increase in opex was largely on account of business promotion activities, increase in travel, etc. For FY24E, opex is expected to remain flat
  • Debt MF – April 2023 saw net sales of | 9000-10000 crore mainly driven by retail
  • Loan against insurance platform to go live in H2FY24

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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