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Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,642.5 Chg : -25.20 (-0.94%)
  • Target : 1,700.0 (5.59%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

30 May 2022

Saturated oral care category drags volume growth…

About The Stock

Colgate-Palmolive (India) (CPIL) is the largest oral care company in India. The company has more than 50% market share in the toothpaste category. The major brands include Colgate Dental Cream, Colgate Total, Colgate Max-Fresh. With the changing consumer preference for naturals products, the company is focusing on growing Colgate Vedshakti brand. Recently, it has launched a toothpaste for diabetics, Colgate Vedshakti Oil Pulling & Vedshakti mouth spray.

  • Colgate has distribution reach of 6.5 million outlets. The company commands one of the highest gross margins in the industry and spends ~13% of sales on marketing to support existing brands and new launches
Q4-FY22 Results

Colgate reported muted results with 1.4% sales growth.

  • Sales were up 1.4% YoY, led by mid-single digit pricing growth
  • EBITDA was at Rs 429.4 crore, up 1.8% YoY, with margins at 29.7%
  • Consequent PAT was at Rs 323.6 crore (up 2.8% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Colgate’s share price has given a return of 57% in the last five years (from Rs 1025 in May 2017 to Rs 1610 in May 2022).

  • We believe volume growth will remain under pressure as oral care is highly penetrated category. Moreover, margins to dip from high base
  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 1700, valuing the business at 38x FY24 earnings.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Innovation & new launches in whitening toothpaste, naturals, Ayurveda & therapeutic toothpaste category to perk volumes in longer run. However, near term growth is only contributed by price hikes
  • CPIL saw 460 bps operating margin expansion in FY21 & FY22 due to favourable sorbitol prices. With the sharp increase in crude based packaging cost, we believe operating margins have peaked out in the medium term
  • With the launch of products in face cleansing category, the company is expected to revive sales growth in future
New Stock Ideas

Besides CPIL, we like Tata Consumer in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 with a BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 4,525.1 4,841.2 5,099.8 2.4 5,493.3 5,945.9 - 8.0
EBITDA 1,201.7 1,509.6 1,565.9 10.7 1,674.2 1,806.4 - 7.4
EBITDA Margin % 26.6 31.2 30.7 - 30.5 30.4 - -
Net Profit 816.5 1,035.4 1,078.3 13.3 1,132.6 1,225.5 - 6.6
EPS (Rs) 30.0 38.1 39.6 13.3 41.6 45.1 - 6.6
P/E 53.6 42.3 40.6 - 38.7 35.7 - -
RoNW % 51.2 88.8 62.2 - 64.6 68.8 - -
RoCE (%) 60.7 106.4 77.8 - 84.9 90.2 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Volume de-growth in Q4; saturated oral care category results in muted growth for the company

  • Net sales grew 1.4% to Rs 1301.3 crore on a high base led by ~5% price increase & ~4% volume decline during the quarter. Revenues for the year grew 5.3% to Rs 5100 crore led by 2.5% volume & 2.5% pricing growth
  • The company relaunched ‘Colgate strong teeth’ with new brand proposition. In whitening space, it launched Colgate Visible white O2 with active oxygen technology and the proposition of whiter teeth in three days
  • Colgate would be relaunching Vedshakti brand with new packaging and new variants. It would launch the variant with improved flavours and combination of five Ayurvedic ingredient (neem, clove, amla, tulsi and honey). It is looking to expand its footprints in Ayurveda & Naturals toothpaste, which is growing much faster than white toothpaste category. However, the category growth has tapered down in the last few quarters
  • With high commodity inflation in crude based packaging costs, gross margins have contracted by 145 bps. We believe the price hikes would have largely covered the raw material cost inflation for the company
  • It was able to save 60 bps on employee spends, 32 bps on marketing spend. Operating profit grew 1.8% to Rs 429.4 crore and operating margins expanded 13 bps. We were estimating larger impact of commodity inflation on the company
  • Net profit grew 2.8% to Rs 323.6 crore on account of higher operating profit, lower interest costs & higher other income
  • Prabha Narasimhan will join Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd as Managing Director and CEO effective September 1, 2022
  • Colgate Brand’s household penetration is 88.1%. It is India’s highest penetrated brand. ‘Colgate Strong Teeth’ brand is purchased by seven out of the 10 households in India. The company is planning to relaunch the brands in Q2 with the proposition of Calcium boost
  • Colgate Super Flexible toothbrush is leading toothbrush brand in India and commands 1.7x market share against the next brand. It is also relaunching the brand in the current year
  • In the naturals space, the company is concentrating on Ingredient based natural toothpaste as well as Ayurveda based natural toothpaste. Under ‘Colgate Active Salt’ brand it launched two variants of ‘salt neem’ & ‘salt lemon’
  • In personal care category, the company has forayed in face cleansing category in FY22, which has 13x addressable market compare to body wash. With Palmolive brands, it has entered into cleansers, scrubs & Masques
  • Colgate has not passed on entire inflation and has not tweaked Rs 10 & Rs 20 price point SKUs . It is focusing on low unit packs (LUPs), Cibaca and Colgate Strong teeth brands to drive long term growth
  • The e-commerce business for Colgate has grown 10x in the last five years. It has gained market share by 70 bps in modern trade channel
  • The company intends to drive revenue growth through volume growth, price hikes, premiumisation and new product launches
  • The company enjoys high gross margins and continues to spends 12-13% of the sales on advertisement
  • The penetration level of oral care category is close to 90%. The company is trying to drive growth through change in behaviour towards brushing twice a day. It is driving campaigns & promotions through schools

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