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  • CMP : 1,854.8 Chg : 10.10 (0.55%)
  • Target : 4,870.0 (16.93%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 Jan 2023

Looking for mid teen revenue growth in FY24…

About The Stock

Coforge reported strong Q3FY23 results.

  • Revenue grew 3.7% QoQ in CC terms and 1.9% QoQ in dollar terms
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin was flat QoQ at 17.6%
  • Highest ever TCV of US$345mn, up 13.5% QoQ
Q3FY23 Results:

Coforge reported strong Q3FY23 results.

  • Revenue grew 3.7% QoQ in CC terms and 1.9% QoQ in dollar terms
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin was flat QoQ at 17.6%
  • Highest ever TCV of US$345mn, up 13.5% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Coforge’s share price has grown by ~5.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 709 in January 2018 to ~₹ 4165 levels in January 2023).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Coforge at ₹ 4870 i.e. 25x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued momentum in order intake & winning large deals, healthy order book to drive growth
  • Bottoming out of travel vertical (in the US), preferred partnership with Fortune 500 insurance & Tier 1 banking companies, recent acquisition to drive 17.6% revenue CAGR over FY22-25E
  • A 170 bps improvement in margins over FY22-25E due to offshoring, higher fresher additions and utilisation improvement
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Coforge, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,730

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 4,183.9 4,662.8 6,432.0 18.1 8,162.2 9,332.2 10,463.8 17.6
EBITDA 719.8 786.5 1,115.4 18.1 1,542.7 1,773.1 1,988.1 21.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 17.2 16.9 17.3 - 18.9 19.0 19.0 -
Net Profit 444.1 455.6 661.8 12.7 925.0 1,072.8 1,209.6 22.3
EPS (|) 71.4 73.3 106.5 - 148.9 172.7 194.7 -
P/E 58.3 56.8 39.1 - 28.0 24.1 21.4 -
RoNW (%) 18.5 18.5 24.2 - 28.5 28.0 26.9 -
RoCE (%) 23.0 23.3 25.6 - 31.8 31.5 30.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  •  US$ revenues grew 1.9% QoQ to US$251.7 million (mn) while growth in CC terms was 3.7% QoQ implying 180 bps headwind impact out of which ~80 bps was on account of hedge losses & ~100 bps on account of cross currency. The company reported rupee revenues of | 2,055.8 crore, up 4.9% QoQ

 

  • Geography wise, growth was driven by EMEA (40.3% of mix) & RoW (10.5% of mix) reporting growth of 6.7% & 4.9%, respectively, QoQ while America region (49.2% of mix) declined 2.2% QoQ

 

  • Vertical wise in CC terms BFS (31.1% of mix) reported strong revenue growth of 39.3% YoY despite the softness in mortgage vertical. TTH & Other reported growth 25.6% & 24.1% YoY in CC terms while insurance declined 6.9% YoY. The company indicated that within the others vertical Retail & healthcare now contributes ~8% of the revenue & public sector contributes ~7% of the revenue

 

  • The company indicated the growth momentum is likely to sustain in FY24 on the basis of execution of five large deals it won as well as strong pipeline ahead. Out of five large deals it won for the quarter a) one deal was with TCV of US$50 mn with a large speciality insurance player in US for their core IT infrastructure upgrade b) the deal with one of the leading banks with TCV $30 mn in the data analytics, fraud reporting space and the deal duration is of three years. The company also indicated that out of five large deals, two are from insurance space, one from BFS and one is in the BPO space where it won with TCV of US$20 mn+. Coforge also indicated that vendor consolidation theme is also one of the growth drivers, going ahead, as it mentioned that out of five large deals it won during the quarter, TCV US$50 mn deal in the insurance space and BPO deal are vendor consolidation deals where vendors with lack of end-to-end capabilities are being replaced. Hence, its wallet share continued to increase
 
  • Coforge also said there is a good mix of cost take out deals and cloud transformation in the five large deals it won during the quarter. The company indicated that incremental deals are skewed towards cost take out programs. Coforge mentioned there are some areas in the market, which are being affected by macro issues but so far they are largely insulated from the pain. The company indicated that it has a good runaway for growth despite macros issues due to continued order wins. Coforge also mentioned that its revenue growth in FY24 is likely to be around 15%. The company also added that 22% CC growth guidance for FY23 is conservative, in its opinion, and it would like to exceed the growth for FY23. Coforge also mentioned that this annual guidance translates into 3.4% CC growth in Q4, which is not challenging
 
  • On BFS, the company indicated that the performance for the quarter was impacted by furloughs. It is a temporary blip as per its view. Coforge expects the performance to see a strong rebound from Q4 onwards. The company also mentioned on account of strong deal wins in this segment in the last few quarters as well as new deals signed in this quarter, revenue growth momentum is likely to continue. Coforge indicated that low code no code platforms, data analytics, fraud management continue to be area of key client interest. On the insurance side, the company is seeing a rebound due to deal momentum i.e. two large deals closed in Q3. Coforge acknowledged that in this vertical, revenue conversion has been a laggard in Q3. It expects a rebound in Q4
  • In insurance, especially on its ‘Advantage GO’ insurance platform, the company mentioned that the performance was not up to the mark from this platform in the last few quarters. Coforge did take corrective action and on boarded a new leader for this platform in this quarter, who has joined it from one of its closest competitor in this space. As per the company, this product forms 1.2% of its revenue mix but it was acting as a minor drag on the company’s performance. Coforge expects a material rebound in this business. On the travel vertical, the company expects a travel rebound and continued client spending on touchless on boarding on airports, data analytics, etc. Coforge guided for 25% growth in the travel vertical in FY24. The company also indicated that out of others verticals, which forms 27% of the mix, retail, healthcare forms 8% of the mix, public sector forms 7%. It will likely carve out retail & healthcare separately, going forward
 
  • The company indicated that GM has witnessed an expansion for the quarter due to i) continued offshore mix increase ii) 300bps increase in utilisation iii) fresher billings. EBITDA margins declined due to a sharp rise in SG&A expenses due to investments in sales people. The margins for the quarter also saw an impact of forex loss of 70 bps, which almost nullified tailwinds from rupee depreciation for the quarter. Coforge guided for a sharp margin expansion in Q4 i.e. 150-170 bps out of which 100 bps QoQ margin expansion will come on account of savings due to headcount rationalisation in BPO business in last couple of quarters (adjusted to headwinds in this business due to lower volumes) as it generally comes with a lag. The company also indicated that their efforts will continue on margin expansion in the medium terms and margins are expected to be much high whenever it reaches a milestone of US$2 bn revenues. On net decline of employees, Coforge indicated that the decline largely pertains to BPO business, which is facing headwinds while net count is likely to see positive number from Q4 onwards as it has on boarded 1000 freshers who are undergoing training. They are likely become billable in the next quarter or two

 

  • The company indicated that its offshore mix ratio continues to improve. It reported an offshore: onshore mix of 50.5%: 49.5% compared to 50.2%: 49.8% in Q2. The company also reiterated the increased offshoring will be one of the key margin levers for the company

 

  • The LTM attrition declined 60 bps QoQ to 15.8%, which is the lowest among its peers and IT services companies. The net employees during the quarter declined by 486 to 22,505 with the decline in IT services & BPS at 191 & 348, respectively
 
  • The company also indicated that it has delayed ADR listing due to unfavourable market conditions and is keeping a close watch on the market
 
  • The company declared an interim dividend of | 19 per share
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY23E   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue in USD           251.7          254.8        221.6 13.6        246.9 1.9 Revenue increased 3.7% QoQ in CC terms 
Revenue 2,055.8 2,095.0 1,658.1 24.0 1,959.4 4.9  
Employee expenses 1,369.8 1,416.2 1,121.0 22.2 1,331.6 2.9  
               
Gross Margin 686.0 678.8 537.1 27.7 627.8 9.3  
Gross margin (%) 33.4 32.4 32.4 98 bps 32.0 133 bps  
SG&A expenses 324.5 301.7 235.1 38.0 282.9 14.7  
               
EBITDA 361.5 377.1 302.0 19.7 344.9 4.8  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6 18.0 18.2 -63 bps 17.6 -2 bps Margin flat due to elevated S&M expenses. There was also impact of forex loss of 70 bps for the quarter, which nullified currency benefits
Depreciation & amortisation 62.4 60.0 56.6 10.2 61.4 1.6  
EBIT 299.1 317.1 245.4 21.9 283.5 5.5  
EBIT Margin (%) 14.5 15.1 14.8 -25 bps 14.5 8 bps  
Other income (less interest) 8.3 -15.0 -12.2 -168.0 -15.0 -155.3  
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 NM 0.0 NM  
PBT 307.4 302.1 233.2 31.8 268.5 14.5  
Tax paid 71.5 69.5 36.0 98.6 47.4 50.8  
PAT 228.2 212.6 183.7 24.2 201.6 13.2  

Disclaimer

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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