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Cochin Shipyard Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,321.9 Chg : -3.75 (-0.28%)
  • Target : 620.0 (31.63%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

13 Feb 2023

Execution likely to pick up…

About The Stock

Cochin Shipyard (CSL) was incorporated in 1972 as a Government of India company, with the first phase of facilities coming online in 1982. CSL is the largest shipbuilding and maintenance facility in India.
• The yard has facilities to build vessels up to 1.1 lakh tonnes (lt) and repair vessels up to 1.25 lt annually
• CSL has secured shipbuilding orders from internationally renowned companies from Europe and the Middle East in the recent past

Q3FY23

Below expected performance in the ship-building segment.

  • Revenue was at ₹ 641.7 crore, down 32.7% YoY on account of weak execution in ship-building segment. Ship-repair showing improvement QoQ
  • EBIDTA came in at ₹ 148.8 crore, up 5.2% YoY on lower RM and better performance in high margin ship-repair segment
  • PAT was at ₹ 110.4 crore, down 14.7% YoY
What should Investors do?

Execution is expected to improve significantly over FY24-25E, which would drive revenues. Margins are also expected to improve led by improving performance in ship repair segment and operating leverage benefits.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value CSL at ₹ 620 i.e. 13x PE (FY25E).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Order backlog is estimated at ~₹ 21000 crore (~7x TTM revenues) including contract for six NG missile vessels. Majority of large contracts in the order book are expected to witness meaningful execution from FY24E onwards
  • Healthy order book and strong pipeline of projects in the coming two to three years from Indian Navy and other international customers
  • Capacity expansion for ship-repair activities to help get more orders in this segment, which is also a higher margin business
Alternate Stock Idea
  • We also like Bharat Electronics in the defence space.
  • Strong order book and healthy pipeline in defence electronics offers strong visibility; diversifying into non-defence to help improve margins
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 130 per share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-25E)
Revenues 3,422.5 2,818.9 3,190.9 2.2 2,840.0 3,353.8 3,954.6 18.0
EBITDA 709.3 716.5 623.0 2.3 542.4 654.0 771.2 19.2
EBITDA margins 20.7 25.4 19.5 - 19.1 19.5 19.5 -
Net Profit 637.7 611.0 564.0 2.5 456.0 540.3 629.1 17.5
EPS (|) 48.5 46.4 42.9 - 34.7 41.1 47.8 -
P/E (x) 9.7 10.1 11.0 - 13.6 11.5 9.8 -
Price / Book (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4 - 1.3 1.3 1.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 5.7 5.0 - 6.8 5.8 5.0 -
RoCE (%) 17.6 14.1 11.4 - 9.8 10.5 11.0 -
RoE (%) 17.1 14.9 12.7 - 9.9 11.0 12.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Analysis

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%)  
Revenue 641.7 962.4 952.9 -32.7 683.2 -6.1 Execution remaied weak YoY in both ship building & ship repair segments; Ship repair witnessing improvement QoQ
Other Income 23.2 65.0 63.0 -63.2 61.7 -62.4  
Total Revenue 664.8 1027.4 1015.9 -34.6 744.9 -10.7  
Total Raw Material Costs 339.9 635.2 671.2 -49.4 412.7 -17.6  
Employee Expenses 85.1 82.8 73.2 16.3 81.2 4.8  
Other expenses 65.8 62.6 53.7 22.4 52.7 24.7  
Provision for losses & exp. 2.2 15.0 13.5 -83.9 1.3 69.8  
Operating Profit (EBITDA) 148.8 166.9 141.4 5.2 135.3 10.0  
EBITDA margin (%) 23.2% 17.3% 14.8% 835 bps 19.8% 339 bps Margin improved on lower RM & better performance in high margin ship repair segment
Interest 12.3 12.2 11.8 3.9 12.2 0.8  
Depreciation 19.2 20.0 17.5 9.5 19.8 -2.9  
Total Tax 30.1 49.9 45.7 -34.1 52.2 -42.4  
PAT 110.4 149.8 129.4 -14.7 112.8 -2.1  
               
Key Metrics Q3FY23   Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%)  
Revenue (Segment-wise)              
Shipbuilding 461.4   728.7 -36.7 527.6 -12.5 Delay in execution impacted ship-building revenues
As a % of Sales 71.9%   76.5%   77.2%    
Shiprepair 180.3   224.2 -19.6 155.6 15.8 Ship repair performance improving QoQ
As a % of Sales 28.1%   23.5%   22.8%    
EBIT  (Segment-wise)              
Shipbuilding 112.5   131.5 -14.5 96.4 16.7  
EBIT Margins(%) 24.4%   18.0%   18.3%   Margin iimproved on lower RM
As a % of EBIT 73.7%   70.4%   54.4%    
Shiprepair 59.0   27.1 117.3 50.6 16.5  
EBIT Margins (%) 32.7%   12.1%   32.5%   Ship-repair margins remained higher YoY
As a % of EBIT 38.6%   14.5%   28.6%    
  • Revenue came in at | 641.7 crore (down 32.7% YoY); lower than our estimate of | 962.4 crore. Both segments, shipbuilding and ship-repair, have witnessed weak execution and reported a decline in revenues by 36.7% YoY and 19.6%, respectively, during the quarter. Sequentially, total revenue is down 6.1% (ship building revenue is down 12.5% QoQ while ship-repair revenue increased 15.8% QoQ). Shipbuilding contributed ~72% to total revenues in Q3FY23
  • The 9MFY23 revenue is down 10.8% YoY to | 1765.7 crore as ship building revenues were down 13.6% YoY during the period. Ship repair revenues during 9MFY23 have been flat YoY
  • Gross margin was at 47%; improved substantially from 29.6% in Q3FY23 as total raw material cost has declined 49.4% YoY. Sequentially, the margin is up by 744 bps
  • EBIDTA margin was at 23.2%; up 835 bps YoY (vs. our estimate of 17.3%). Sequentially, EBITDA margin was up 339 bps. The 9MFY23 EBITDA margin was at 17.9% (up 136 bps YoY)
  • EBITDA came in at | 148.8 crore (vs. estimate of | 166.9 crore); increased 5.2% as better margins negated the impact of decline in revenues. The 9MFY23 EBITDA was down 3.4% YoY to | 315.5 crore
  • EBIT from ship-building segment was at | 112.5 crore (down 14.5% YoY) while ship-repair segment EBIT increased sharply by 117.3% YoY to | 59 crore. EBIT margin for ship-building segment was at 24.4% (up 633 bps YoY, 610 bps QoQ). EBIT margin for ship repair segment was at 32.7%, similar to Q2FY23 levels but significantly better on a YoY basis (the margin was at 12.1% in Q3FY22)
  • PAT came in at | 110.4 crore (down 14.7% YoY) as other income was down 63.2% YoY. This was lower than our estimate of | 149.8 crore

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