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City Union Bank Ltd>
  • CMP : 160.3 Chg : 3.15 (2.01%)
  • Target : 160.0 (8.84%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 Feb 2023

Divergence impacts quarter; growth outlook unclear

About The Stock

City Union Bank is an old private sector bank with focus on MSME and agri loans that form 63% of overall advances.

  • Strong presence in south India with 669 out of total 752 branches
  • Total 99% of bank’s advances are secured in nature
Q3FY23

Decline in NIMs and higher provisions impacted earnings.

  • Advances grew 12% YoY to ₹ 43009 crore. Deposits up 7% YoY with CASA growth at 5% YoY
  • NII up 13.4% YoY (declined 2.1% QoQ). NIMs declined 21 bps QoQ at 3.88%
  • GNPA up 26 bps QoQ to 4.62%. Restructured book declined to ~4%
What should Investors do?

One-off and divergence related provisioning impacted Q3FY23 earnings. Lack of clarity on business growth, anticipation of higher provision to improve coverage and higher focus on RoA is likely to impact valuation.

  • Thus, we downgrade our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

Rolling to FY25E, we value City Union Bank at ~1.4x FY25E ABV and revise our target price from ₹ 215 to ₹ 160 per share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Moderation in credit growth in the current scenario remains a surprise. The management is confident of achieving double digit growth in FY24E and maintained long term RoA guidance of 1.5%
  • Relatively larger pool of stressed assets (~8.6% of advances) and potential impact in case of shift to ECL provisioning (estimated at ~₹ 200 crore to be divided in five years) could impact earnings trajectory
  • Asset quality witnessed improvement but remained slower on a relative basis. Repayment from restructured book needs to be watched
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from City Union Bank, in our coverage we also like CSB Bank.

  • CSB Bank is a south based private sector bank with Kerala contributing ~30% of total business. Changed strategy in various aspects of lending has led to transformation and improved performance in the past few years
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 300

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR _(FY19-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR _(FY22-25E)
NII 1,675.2 1,829.7 1,916.5 5.9 2,194.2 2,470.3 2,781.2 13.2
PPP 1,341.4 1,467.8 1,595.3 8.8 1,770.2 1,984.4 2,237.0 11.9
PAT 533.3 592.8 760.2 1.8 927.0 1,042.0 1,175.6 15.6
BV (|) 71.4 78.6 88.7 - 100.6 114.4 130.0 -
ABV (|) 60.8 64.1 74.0 - 87.0 100.7 116.3 -
P/ABV 2.4 2.3 2.0 - 1.7 1.5 1.3 -
P/BV 2.1 1.9 1.7 - 1.5 1.3 1.1 -
P/E 20.3 18.3 14.3 - 11.7 10.4 9.2 -
RoA 1.1 1.2 1.3 - 1.4 1.6 1.6 -
RoE 10.7 10.6 12.2 - 13.2 14.0 13.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
NII 556 490 13.4 568 -2.1   Decline in margin offset by credit growth
NIM (%) 3.88 4.00 -12 bps 4.09 -21 bps    
Other Income 224 160 40.2 173 29.3   Mainly led by higher recoveries
               
Net Total Income 780 650 20.0 741 5.2    
Staff cost 127 134 -5.2 141 -10.2    
Other Operating Expenses 156 147 6.4 144 8.5    
               
PPP 497 370 34.6 456 9.0    
Provision 225 124 81.8 105 113.8   Significant rise in provisions linked to divergence
PBT 273 246 10.9 351 -22.4    
Tax Outgo 55 50 10.0 75 -26.7    
PAT 218 196 11.1 276 -21.2   Higher credit cost impacts earnings trajectory
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 1,989 1,999 -0.5 1,862 6.8   Restructured book at ~4% of total loans
NNPA 1,124 1,296 -13.2 1,129 -0.4   GNPA rose due to slippage from r/s book
Advances 43,009 38,387 12.0 42,702 0.7    
Deposits 49,997 46,722 7.0 49,878 0.2    

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Credit growth to be marginally less than earlier guidance of 15-18% YoY for FY23. Slippages to be in the range of 2.5-2.8% for FY23 and should come down gradually in FY24E. CI to stay at ~40% levels. RoA target of 1.5% (ECL calculation should not impact RoA target)
  • Interest income of | 32 crore (from gold loans) was not recognised in Q3FY23 due to inadequate paperwork; the same should come in subsequent quarter. Average yield on gold loan is ~9%
  • Except gold loan segment all other segments are on floating interest rate
  • The divergence in additional GNPAs was | 259 crore. The bank held | 742 crore specific NPA provision and as per RBI assessment provision requirement was | 782 crore (divergence of | 40 crore). The divergence in GNPA was not due to 90-day norm but due to various reasons including difference in interpretation of guidelines
  • Out of total | 439 crore slippages during Q3, ~|140 crore was due to divergence
  • Provision of ~| 25 crore in relation to exposure to SpiceJet written back in Q3FY23. Total | 15 crore writeback is from standard assets
  • SMA 2 book (including ECLGS) was at 2.19%. SR outstanding was | 1.2 crore
  • Total 70-75% of term deposits will be getting repriced in a year
  • The bank opened 25 branches in Q3 

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