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  • CMP : 1,499.6 Chg : -8.40 (-0.56%)
  • Target : 1,135.0 (16.05%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 Jul 2022

Ex-Covid core growth intact; Eyes on US launches…

About The Stock

Cipla is a global pharma company with over 1,500+ products in 65 therapeutic categories, with over 50 dosage forms.

  • Indian branded formulations business accounts for ~45% of revenues and enjoys leadership in therapies like respiratory, anti-infective, cardiac, gynaecology & gastro-intestinal
  • Cipla derives 20% of its export revenues from the US followed by 12% from South Africa, 18% from RoW markets and 3% from APIs
Q1FY23

Revenues were in-line with I-Direct estimates while margins were better than expected as company prepare for complex launches in US market.

  • Sales were down 2% YoY to ₹ 5375 crore [Ex-Covid: 6% YoY growth]
  • EBITDA was down 15% YoY to ₹ 1143 crore, with margins at 21.3%

Consequent PAT was at ₹ 685 crore (down 15% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Cipla’s share price has grown ~1.9x in past three years

  • We maintain BUY due to 1) continued focus on its core strength of respiratory franchise, along with peptide assets in US, 2) calibrated focus on core therapies in India and 3) likely improvement in off-take from private market in exports amid shift away from tenderised models
Target Price Valuation

 Valued at ₹ 1135 i.e. 24x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 45.8 + ₹ 33 NPV for gRevlimid.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • US: Expects significant momentum from H2FY23 onwards in the US on the back of peptide portfolio unlocking and possible approvals, launches of gRevlimid, gAdvair, gAbraxane and other peptide assets in pipeline
  • One-India: Branded prescription portfolio therapy mix reflects strong fundamentals across chronic and acute segments. Better execution and distribution synergies to drive prescription, trade generics, consumer health
  • Exports: Across the board transformation from tenderised model to private model in exports market and more focus towards DTM and new frontier markets for organic growth in Europe and Emerging markets
  • The company is focusing on front-end model, especially for the US and shift to more lucrative respiratory and other complex opportunities
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Cipla, in healthcare coverage we like Sun Pharma.

  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative business
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1125

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 16,362.4 17,132.0 19,159.6 21,763.3 8.3 23,065.9 25,465.0 8.2
EBITDA 3,097.3 3,206.0 4,252.4 4,552.8 13.0 5,173.7 5,985.9 14.7
EBITDA margins (%) 18.9 18.7 22.2 20.9 - 22.4 23.5 -
Adjusted PAT 1,496.1 1,546.5 2,404.9 2,650.2 21.4 3,104.8 3,689.3 18.0
Adj. EPS (|) 18.6 19.2 29.9 32.9 - 38.6 45.8 -
PE (x) 55.2 53.4 34.3 31.3 - 25.4 21.3 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 27.1 25.9 18.9 16.5 - 14.0 11.7 -
RoNW (%) 10.0 9.8 13.1 12.7 - 13.3 14.1 -
RoCE (%) 10.9 12.0 16.3 16.7 - 17.9 19.0 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Revenue growth muted on a high base

  • Revenues declined 2% YoY to | 5375 crore (ex-Covid grew 6% YoY) amid 8% YoY de-growth in domestic formulations to | 2483 crore while adjusted for Covid sales in Q1FY22, India business grew 9% YoY. US grew 15% YoY to | 1199 crore due to momentum in core formulation business led by contribution from respiratory and peptide assets. South Africa business posted de-growth of 10% YoY to | 568 crore while RoW market expanded by 20% YoY to | 939 crore. API was down 55% YoY to | 135 crore on a higher Q1FY22 base due to one-time profit share on an API supply. EBITDA margins was down 318 bps YoY to 21.3% while EBITDA de-grew 14% YoY to | 1143 crore. Subsequently, adjusted profit declined 15% YoY to | 685 crore.
  • Cipla’s Q1FY23 revenues was in-line with I-direct estimates while margins were a beat. Core portfolio (ex-Covid) momentum continues to be robust across branded prescription, trade generics and consumer health. US continues to witness consistent traction in respiratory, complex generics and peptide portfolio with likely complex launches in H2FY23. South African private market was muted in this quarter with recovery expected from Q2FY23. EBITDA margins was within the full year guidance of 21-22% despite multiple cost headwinds.  
  • We continue to focus on the Cipla’s long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership. Market share gain for Albuterol along with ramp-up for first peptide asset, Lanreotide injection has strengthened US portfolio. While US focus will be on specialty including hospitals, value accretive generics, India focus will be on branded (Rx), trade generics (TGx). On the Africa front, Cipla continues to rebase its business model towards private business in the backdrop of shrinking tender opportunities. Cipla’s upcoming complex launches in H2FY23 will further strengthen overall business and profitability trajectory.

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • One India: Grew 9% YoY adjusted for covid portfolio. In branded prescription, momentum is sustained across therapies in core portfolio driven by pricing & new introductions. In Trade Generics, Cipla introduced 16 launches (anti-diabetic and ophthalmic products) while flagship brands continue to witness healthy traction. In Consumer health business, Cipla acquired Endura Mass, a renowned nutritional supplement brand. Including Endura Mass, domestic consumer business is expected to achieve annualized revenue of | 600+ crore.
  • Global Consumer franchise grew 17% YoY and contributed 9% to top-line. India franchise TTM revenues at | 1100 crore while South Africa franchise TTM revenues stood at ZAR 1275 million.
  • US: Grew 10% to US$155 million. Cipla’s market share in Albuterol Arformoterol stood at 16.5% and 33.4% respectively. In this quarter, DTM respiratory franchise grew 22% YoY. Management indicated that current peptide asset is on track to achieve mid-teen market share by year-end. Cipla has filed another partnered peptide injectable asset in Q1FY23. In total Cipla has 5 peptide product, with guidance for 1 asset to be launched by FY23 end while another 2 peptide assets are expected to be launched by FY24 end. Management remains committed for Advair launch in early H2FY23 and Abraxane in late H2FY23. Approved ANDAs/NDAs: 164, tentative approval: 18, pending approval: 71.
  • SAGA: Declined 10% YoY in US$ terms. Cipla launched 8 brands across multiple therapies in Q1FY23.  Q1FY23 SAGA break-up (US$ million) – South Africa Private:53, South Africa Tender:20 and SSA&CGA:28
  • International: Grew 18% YoY to US$93 million in Q1FY23. In this quarter, strong DTM growth across geographies was offset by forex volatility in emerging markets and muted B2B demand in Europe.
  • API: De-grew 57% to US$17 million in Q1FY23 due to higher Q1FY23 base due to one-time profit share on an API supply.
  • In Q1FY23 there was 170 bps adverse impact on margins due to 1) high procurement cost, 2) freight cost and 3) negative forex impact which was partly offset by price hike and decline in sale of low margin Covid products. Adjusting for above, EBITDA margins grew by 12% YoY to ~ 23%
  • R&D cost is expected to go up in following quarters with guidance for 5.5-6% of revenues in FY23. Amid declining freight and other cost trends, management has not increased EBITDA margins guidance of 22-23%.
  • Management is expecting India business (ex-Covid: Drugs directly used in Covid like Remdesivir, Mono-clonal Antibodies) to grow higher than IPM (ex-Covid) growth.
Variance Analysis

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 5,375.2 5,439.3 5,504.4 -2.3 5,260.3 2.2   Ex-Covid 6% YoY growth 
Raw Material Expenses 2,024.4 2,148.5 2,068.8 -2.1 2,146.7 -5.7    
Gross Profit 3,350.8 3,290.8 3,435.5 -2.5 3,113.6 7.6    
Gross Margin (%) 62.3 60.5 62.4 -8 bps 59.2 315 bps   170 bps adverse impact due to high procurement cost and negative forex impact which was partly offset by price hike and decline in sale of low margin Covid products
Employee Expenses 955.7 875.7 887.3 7.7 892.4 7.1   YoY increase due to annual increaments
Other Expenditure 1,251.7 1,329.9 1,202.3 4.1 1,471.5 -14.9    
Total Operating Expenditure 4,231.8 4,354.2 4,158.5 1.8 4,510.6 -6.2    
EBITDA 1,143.4 1,085.1 1,345.9 -15.0 749.7 52.5    
EBITDA (%) 21.3 20.0 24.5 -318 bps 14.3 702 bps   In-line with Guidance of 21-22%, Adjusted margins grew by 12% YoY at ~ 23%
Interest  17.8 11.8 29.6 -39.8 18.1 -1.6    
Depreciation 254.4 289.8 261.1 -2.6 290.3 -12.4    
Other income 103.4 70.7 64.9 59.3 64.0 61.6    
PBT before EO 974.6 854.2 1,120.1 -13.0 505.3 92.9    
Less: Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 124.6 0.0 57.5 0.0    
PBT 974.6 854.2 995.5 -2.1 447.8 117.6    
Tax 268.0 243.5 283.7 -5.5 71.1 276.9    
Tax Rate (%) 27.5 28.5 28.5 -100 bps 15.9 1162 bps    
MI & Share of loss/ (gain) asso. 19.7 -4.3 -4.8 LP 8.6 128.7    
Adjusted PAT 684.9 613.2 803.8 -14.8 410.4 66.9   In line with operational performance
Key Metrics                
Domestic  2483.0 2425.5 2710.0 -8.4 2183.0 13.7   Ex-Covid 9% YoY growth 
US 1199.0 1234.5 1038.0 15.5 1209.0 -0.8   YoY growth driven by respiratory and peptide products
South Africa 568.0 646.7 634.0 -10.4 664.0 -14.5   YoY decline due to muted growth in private primary sales
RoW  939.0 940.8 784.0 19.8 1011.0 -7.1   Strong DTM growth across geographies partly offset by forex volatility in emerging markets and muted B2B demand in Europe
API 135.0 135.9 302.0 -55.3 137.0 -1.5   YoY decline attributed to higher Q1FY22 base due to one-time profit share on an API supply

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