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  • CMP : 1,499.6 Chg : -8.40 (-0.56%)
  • Target : 1,100.0 (7.21%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Mar 2022

Strong Traction in Domestic and US; Outlook positive

About The Stock

Cipla is a global pharma company with over 1,500+ products in 65 therapeutic categories, with over 50 dosage forms. Cipla supplies branded and generic medicines to over 170 countries globally.

  • Indian branded formulations business accounts for ~40% of revenues and enjoys leadership in therapies like respiratory, anti-infective, cardiac, gynaecology & gastro-intestinal
  • Cipla derives 21% of its export revenues from the US followed by 12% from South Africa, 5% from Europe and 16% from RoW markets
Q3FY22

Numbers were steady and came in better than I-Direct estimates.

  • Sales were up 6% YoY to ₹ 5478.9 crore
  • EBITDA in Q3FY22 was flat YoY at ₹ 1231 crore, with margins at 22.5%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was at ₹ 728.6 crore (down 2.6% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Cipla’s share price has grown by ~1.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 585 in Jan 2017 to ~₹ 904 levels in Jan 2022).

  • We maintain BUY as we continue to focus on its core strength of following a calibrated approach of focusing more core therapies with front-end shift across the world
Target Price Valuation

We value Cipla at ₹ 1100 i.e. 24x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 44.6 + ₹ 31 NPV for gRevlimid.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The management’s long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership
  • Across the board transformation from tenderised model to private model in exports market and more focus towards consumerisation of important TGx, Rx products in Indian branded formulations
  • The company is focusing on front-end model, especially for the US, along with a gradual shift from loss making HIV and other tenders to more lucrative respiratory and other opportunities in the US and EU
  • Expects significant momentum from H2FY23 onwards in the US on the back of peptide portfolio unlocking and possible approvals and launches of gRevlimid, gAdvair and gAbraxane besides gains from Albuterol portfolio
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Cipla, in healthcare coverage we like Sun Pharma.

  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses by FY23
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 965

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 5 Year CAGR(FY16-FY21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Revenues 16,362.4 17,132.0 19,159.6 7.0 21,878.8 23,173.4 24,747.4 8.9
EBITDA 3,097.3 3,206.0 4,252.4 11.4 5,016.7 5,374.5 5,878.3 11.4
EBITDA margins (%) 18.9 18.7 22.2 - 22.9 23.2 23.8 -
Adjusted PAT 1,496.1 1,546.5 2,404.9 10.1 2,989.5 3,242.5 3,587.4 14.3
Adj. EPS (|) 18.6 19.2 29.9 - 37.1 40.3 44.6 -
PE (x) 55.2 53.4 34.3 - 28.5 25.5 23.0 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 27.1 25.9 18.9 - 15.8 14.3 12.6 -
RoNW (%) 10.0 9.8 13.1 - 14.5 14.0 13.9 -
RoCE (%) 10.9 12.0 16.3 - 18.8 18.3 18.3 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY22 Results: Robust performance continues

  • Revenues grew 6% YoY to | 5478.9 crore led by 12.9% YoY growth in domestic formulations to | 2518 crore due to sustained volume traction in flagship brands. US grew 8.8% YoY to | 1124 crore owing to momentum in core products and traction for respiratory portfolio. South Africa business grew 7.8% YoY to | 623 crore while RoW market declined by 6.3% YoY to | 1008 crore. API was down 25.4% YoY to | 150 crore amid momentary slowdown in orders from developed market. EBITDA margins was down 135 bps YoY to 22.5% while EBITDA was flat YoY at | 1231 crore. Subsequently, adjusted profit was down 2.6% YoY to | 728.6 crore.
  • Cipla’s Q3FY22 revenues was in-line with I-direct estimates driven by strong traction in One-India and US business while margin profile was better than anticipated mainly due to lower other expenditure. We continue to focus on the management’s long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership. FY21 launch of Albuterol sulphate (Proventil HFA) amid rise in demand for Albuterol products in the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic along with approval for first peptide asset, Lanreotide injection to strengthens Cipla’s complex generics presence. While US focus will be on specialty including hospitals, value accretive generics, India focus will be on branded (Rx), trade generics (TGx). On the Africa front, Cipla continues to rebase its business model towards private business in the backdrop of shrinking tender opportunities.

Q3FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • India business - Covid portfolio declined 10% YoY and 17% QoQ. Core business except covid grew 16% YoY
  • The branded prescription business was driven by sustained traction across therapies in core portfolio, Trade generics business witnessed strong demand across flagship brands and key therapeutic categories and Consumer health business witnessed robust traction in anchor brands & transitioned brands
  • US – Expects significant momentum from H2FY23 onwards on the back of possible approvals and launches of gRevlimid, gAdvair and gAbraxane besides momentum gains from Albuterol portfolio
  • In Albuterol, Cipla’s market share stood at 15.9% of the overall while In Arformoterol, Cipla’s market share stood at 26.8% of the overall market
  • Approved ANDAs/NDAs: 167, Tentative approval: 18, Pending approval: 72
  • SAGA – SAGA declined 4% YoY in US$ terms, South Africa private market growth was 16% YoY in ZAR terms on back of market beating growth in Anti-retroviral (ARV), oncology, respiratory and anti-infectives therapies
  • Q3FY22 Break-up: South Africa Private: US$60 million, South Africa Tender: US$23 million and Others: US$36 million 
  • Global consumer business contributed ~8% to overall revenues YTD
  • International markets – Steady double digit growth in secondary terms during the quarter, 2 respiratory products filed in Europe
  • API – Slowdown in orders from developed markets, Traction in orders from emerging markets; medium-term orderbook robust
  • R&D spend: | 262 crore with priority projects on track, R&D to be around 7-7.5% in future, ETR at 28%
  • Board approved the transfer of the following undertakings as a going concern on a slump sale basis – 1) India based US business undertaking to Cipla BioTec and 2) Consumer business undertaking to Cipla Health
 
Variance Analysis

  Q3FY22 Q3FY22E Q3FY21 YoY (%) Q2FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 5,478.9 5,349.9 5,168.7 6.0 5,519.8 -0.7   YoY growth led by strong growth in India, South Africa and US
Raw Material Expenses 2,143.4 2,099.8 1,993.5 7.5 2,136.7 0.3    
Gross Profit 3,335.5 3,250.1 3,175.2 5.0 3,383.1 -1.4    
Gross Margin (%) 60.9 60.8 61.4 -55 bps 61.3 -41 bps   YoY decline due to raw material cost inflation and some provisioning for Covid inventory 
Employee Expenses 872.4 874.0 844.4 3.3 877.8 -0.6    
Other Expenditure 1,232.1 1,230.5 1,100.0 12.0 1,279.1 -3.7    
Total Operating Expenditure 4,247.9 4,204.3 3,937.8 7.9 4,293.6 -1.1    
EBITDA 1,231.0 1,145.6 1,230.9 0.0 1,226.2 0.4    
EBITDA (%) 22.5 21.4 23.8 -135 bps 22.2 25 bps   YoY decline due to lower GPM and higher other expenses on the back of rise in freight cost
Interest  20.7 38.0 47.9 -56.8 38.0 -45.6    
Depreciation 247.5 272.8 248.4 -0.4 253.1 -2.2    
Other income 91.3 59.2 86.9 5.0 60.7 50.5    
PBT before EO 1,054.1 894.0 1,021.5 3.2 995.8 5.9    
Less: Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
PBT 1,054.1 894.0 1,021.5 3.2 995.8 5.9    
Tax 295.2 254.8 269.0 9.7 283.8 4.0    
Tax Rate (%) 28.0 28.5 26.3 167 bps 28.5 -50 bps    
MI & Share of loss/ (gain) asso. 28.3 -2.0 3.5 717.3 -2.2 LP    
Adjusted PAT 728.6 640.3 748.2 -2.6 711.4 2.4   Beat vis-à-vis I-direct estimates. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA due to higher tax expense
Key Metrics                
Domestic  2518.0 2409.5 2231.0 12.9 2416.0 4.2   YoY growth driven by sustained volume traction across core therapies and traction in flagship brands
US 1124.0 1074.6 1033.0 8.8 1060.0 6.0   YoY growth driven by sustained volume traction across core therapies and traction in flagship brands
South Africa 623.0 625.3 578.0 7.8 710.0 -12.3   Grew 16% YoY in ZAR terms and maintains market beating trajectory
RoW  1008.0 967.5 1076.0 -6.3 1106.0 -8.9    
API 150.0 211.1 201.0 -25.4 172.0 -12.8   YoY decline amid momentary slowdown in orders from developed markets

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