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Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,336.0 Chg : 1.30 (0.10%)
  • Target : 865.0 (23.57%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 Feb 2023

US momentum drives growth; LatAm steady…

About The Stock

Caplin derives almost entire revenues through exports with 86% of     revenues from Emerging Markets (LatAm + RoW) where it has an end-to-end business model through last mile logistical solutions for its exclusive distributors.

  • In the US, overall development pipeline remains robust, with 58+ ANDAs under development with an addressable market in US at over US$5 billion
  • For LatAm markets, it outsources ~45% of products (China: 30%; Indian vendors:70%) and in-house manufacturing remains at ~55%
  • Caplin Steriles caters to the rapidly growing demand for injectable products in the US and other regulated markets
Q3FY23

In line numbers with better-than-expected US growth.

  • Revenues grew 14% YoY to ₹ 372 crore propelled by the US also growing ~99% YoY to ₹ 62 crore. LatAm & RoW growth was steady at 7% YoY
  • EBITDA grew 7.3% YoY to ₹ 108.3 crore and margins declined 184 bps YoY to 29.1%
  • Adjusted PAT grew 28.6% YoY to ₹ 96.4 crore
What should Investors do?

Caplin’s share price has grown at 27.82% CAGR over the past three years.

  • Maintain BUY due to 1) Steady growth from legacy LatAm markets and increasing footprints in other geographies, 2) Traction from visible order book in the US and 3) Calculated capex decisions to expand capacity, widen portfolio and backward integration
Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 865 i.e. 16x P/E on FY25E EPS of ₹ 54.1

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Execution of the ~₹ 450-500 crore capex towards Caplin Steriles, RoW facility, oncology (OSD & injectable) project and API backward integration
  • Growth momentum to persist mainly due to further expansion in front end, increasing product basket, change in product mix, launching of own brands
  • Plans to expand in six major markets of the US, Mexico, Brazil, Europe, South Africa and CIS countries with differentiated strategies
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Caplin, in our coverage, we like Granules.

  • Granules India is a vertically integrated company that manufactures API, intermediates and finished dosages
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 355

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 863.2 1,061.3 1,269.4 25.9 1,456.9 1,659.0 1,865.3 13.1
EBITDA 260.1 328.7 394.7 26.0 429.0 493.6 564.2 14.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 30.1 31.0 31.1 - 29.4 29.8 30.3 -
Net Profit 215.1 242.3 299.8 25.7 371.1 363.7 411.3 5.3
EPS (Adjusted) 28.3 31.9 39.5 - 48.8 47.9 54.1 -
PE (x) 24.7 22.0 17.7 - 14.3 14.6 12.9 -
RoCE (%) 26.5 25.4 25.3 - 23.5 22.4 21.6 -
RoE (%) 22.7 20.4 20.2 - 20.2 16.7 16.0 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q3FY23: In line numbers, US momentum continues

  • Revenues grew 14% YoY to | 372 crore propelled by LatAm & RoW growing 6.6% YoY and US also growing 98.8% YoY. EBITDA grew 7.3% YoY to
    | 108.3 crore whereas EBITDA margins declined 184 bps YoY to 29.1%. Adjusted PAT grew 28.6% YoY to | 96.4 crore

 

  • The companys softgel and injectable businesses both continue to increase in terms of sales and profitability. Increased sales in US markets were primarily related to incremental share from current products. With multiple orders received this quarter, Caplin Steriles continued its expansion into newer geographies, including Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines. Caplin Steriles completed exhibit batches of four complex injectable/ophthalmic products, to be filed in the US and global markets within 2023. Thus, banking on strong footprint in the smaller LatAm markets, the company is establishing itself in the complex US injectable space besides foraying into bigger LatAm markets. We are positive on the companys strong earnings profile and focused approach with growth capex

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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