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Can Fin Homes Ltd>
  • CMP : 745.4 Chg : 1.55 (0.21%)
  • Target : 730.0 (18.51%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 May 2023

Healthy performance; outlook remains encouraging…

About The Stock

CanFin Homes (CFHL) was promoted by Canara Bank in 1987, with ~30% stake as of March 2023. The HFC has a presence in 205 locations across 21 states and union territories (UTs).

  • Housing loans comprise ~90% of book; of which ~73% is to salaried customers
  • Average ticket size is ₹ 25 lakh for housing, ₹ 8 lakh for non-housing loans
Q4FY23

CanFin Homes reported a healthy performance.

  • Loan growth at 18.2% YoY wherein housing loans were up 17.5% YoY
  • NII up 10% YoY, NIMs down 10 bps at 3.4% due to lag in rate transmission
  • PAT up 34.9% YoY at ₹ 166 crore; GNPA steady at 0.6% QoQ
What should Investors do?

CanFin’s consistent business growth coupled with superior asset quality led by strong underwriting to aid earnings and return ratios. Anticipated healthy earnings growth at 20% CAGR in FY23-25E and RoA at ~2% are expected to drive valuations.

  • Stock is currently at 1.6x ABV, we retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value CanFin Homes at ~1.9x P/ABV FY25E and revise our target price from ₹ 625 to ₹ 730 per share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • As the new MD & CEO is on boarded, the overhang has gone and the strategy broadly remains unchanged
  • Loan growth guidance steady at 18-20% YoY but the management expects demand to revive in two to three quarters as interest rates stabilise
  • Margins are expected to settle at current levels, provide cushion and aid earnings growth
  • Its strong parent backing and consistent superior asset quality will keep cost of funds lower & leverage higher, thus enabling better return ratios
Alternate Stock

Besides CanFin Homes, in our coverage we also like HDFC Ltd.

  • HDFC Ltd is the largest HFC and demonstrated a consistent performance in terms of both business growth as well as asset quality
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3150

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 674.7 798.0 816.2 1,014.6 14.6 1,226.2 1,478.4 20.7
PPP 578.6 686.1 682.0 865.8 14.4 1,062.4 1,283.0 21.7
PAT 376.1 456.1 471.1 621.2 18.2 736.7 898.3 20.3
ABV (|) 153.1 185.9 224.2 268.4 20.6 315.8 377.0 18.5
P/E 21.8 18.0 17.4 13.3 - 11.1 9.1 -
P/ABV 4.0 3.3 2.7 2.3 - 2.0 1.6 -
RoA 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 - 2.0 2.1 -
RoE 19.1 19.2 16.6 18.3 - 18.5 19.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 261 265 237 10.1 252 3.8 Decent business growth led by healthy business 
Reported NIM (%) 3.4% 3.64% 4.2% -78 bps 3.5% -10 bps Margin contraction due to transmission lag
Other Income 12 5 5 123.1 5 140.7  
               
Net Total Income 273 271 243 12.7 257 6.5  
Staff cost 22 15 18 22.6 21 4.8  
Other Operating Expenses 29 34 30 -2.1 22 30.3 CI ratio inched up at ~19%
               
PPP 222 222 195 14.0 213 4.2  
Provision 24 11 30 -21.3 8 182.7 PCR increased to 62% vs 50% in Q3FY23
PBT 198 211 164 20.5 205 -3.2  
Tax Outgo 32 51 41 -22.3 53 -39.3  
PAT 166 160 123 34.9 151 9.4 Steady PPP aided PAT growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 174 143 171 1.9 181 -4.0 Asset quality continue to improve; GNPA ratio at 0.55% 
NNPA 83 73 81 2.8 89 -7.1  
Loan Book 31563 31576 26711 18.2 30115 4.8 Healthy loan growth momentum continues
Borrowings 24545   21395 14.7 23550 4.2  

 

Q4FY23: Conference Call Highlights

  • Guidance for FY24E – Loan growth and disbursement growth to be ~18-20% YoY, NIMs at ~3.5%. If there is no further rate hike, CoF likely to remain steady. Credit cost to hover at ~5-7bps. Aims to open 12-15 branches every year. RoE and RoA at ~17% and ~2% levels, respectively
  • Rates on liabilities grew at a faster pace than on assets. Hence, NIMs contracted in Q4FY23. Yet to see repricing benefit on | 18000 crore book fully or partly of which | 5500 crore will come in Q1FY24 and balance in Q2FY24 (book is reset on annual basis). During the quarter ~ | 10000 crore book had been repriced
  • During the quarter, the management had taken a conservative approach and made additional provisions. Hence, PCR increased significantly to 62% (50% in Q3FY23). Total provisions on balance sheet was | 312 crore vs. | 290 crore in Q3FY23
  • The company is carrying | 4600 crore of undrawn lines with banks on which no interest is paid. During the quarter, | 1000 crore NCDs were raised at 8.45%,, which led to a significant increase in cost of funds
  • DSAs will continue to remain significant sourcing channel for Can Fin Homes. BT out during the quarter was | 100 crore
  • Total 65% of loans are from southern states and balance 35% from other states. The management is targeting a 60:40 mix
  • Total restructured book was at | 695 crore, recoveries of | 16 crore and slippages during the quarter were | 8.6crore. Total 75% of the book yet to come out of moratorium

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.     

 

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