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  • CMP : 937.2 Chg : 13.75 (1.49%)
  • Target : 625.0 (19.96%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Jan 2023

Steady performance; margins to inch upwards

About The Stock

CanFin Homes (CFHL) was promoted by Canara Bank in 1987, with ~30% stake as of December 2022. The HFC has presence in 205 locations across 21 states and UT

  • Housing loans comprise ~90% of book; of which ~74% is to salaried customers
  • The average ticket size being ₹ 22 lakh for housing and ₹ 8 lakh for non-housing loans
Q3FY23

CanFin Homes reported a steady performance

  • Loan growth at 20% YoY, wherein housing loans were up 19% YoY
  • NII up 22% YoY, NIMs down by 8 bps at 3.5% owing to lag in rate transmission
  • PAT up 30.9% YoY at ₹ 151 crore; GNPA steady at 0.6% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Consistent business growth with focus on efficient operations coupled with relatively lower cost and strong underwriting to benefit earnings and return ratios.

  • Hence, we retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value CanFin Homes at ~1.75x P/ABV FY25E and maintain target price of ₹625 per share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong parentage and consistent superior asset quality enables it to keep cost of funds lower & leverage higher, thus enabling better return ratios.
  • Stringent cost control with CI ratio at 16-17% ensures continued focus on maximising productivity, which, in turn, would benefit earnings trajectory
  • Focus on tier II & III cities and high yielding LAP segment to support AUM and NIM trajectory
  • Appointment of new MD & CEO, expected in Q4FY23, to provide breather and act as trigger in near term
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from CanFin Homes Ltd, in our coverage we also like HDFC Ltd.

  • HDFC Ltd is the largest HFC and has demonstrated a consistent performance in terms of both business growth as well as asset quality.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2850

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR _(FY22-25E)
NII 674.7 798.0 816.2 14.5 996.0 1,124.8 1,294.6 16.6
PPP 578.6 686.1 682.0 13.2 843.9 948.8 1,091.4 17.0
PAT 376.1 456.1 471.1 16.7 587.7 659.9 758.6 17.2
ABV (|) 153.1 185.9 224.2 20.6 261.0 306.5 358.3 16.9
P/E 18.4 15.2 14.7 - 11.8 10.5 9.1 -
P/ABV 3.4 2.8 2.3 - 2.0 1.7 1.5 -
RoA 1.9 2.1 1.9 - 1.9 1.8 1.8 -
RoE 19.1 19.2 16.6 - 17.6 16.9 16.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 252 206 22.2 251 0.2 Decent growth led by healthy business traction
Reported NIM (%) 3.5% 3.5% -1 bps 3.6% -8 bps Margin compression due to transmission lag
Other Income 5 6 -21.5 5 -6.0  
             
Net Total Income 257 212 20.9 257 0.1  
Staff cost 21 21 -0.2 18 19.7  
Other Operating Expenses 22 19 18.7 23 -0.7 CI ratio broadly steady at ~17%
             
PPP 213 172 23.8 216 -1.5  
Provision 8 16 -48.5 13 -36.4 Reversal in standard asset provisions of ~| 6 crore
PBT 205 156 31.4 203 0.8  
Tax Outgo 53 40 32.6 61 -13.3  
PAT 151 116 30.9 142 6.9 Steady PPP & lower provisions aided PAT growth
             
Key Metrics            
GNPA 181 177 2.2 179 1.4 GNPA ratio steady at 0.6% QoQ
NNPA 89 97 -8.0 101 -11.7  
Loan Book 30115 25091 20.0 28823 4.5 Disbursement remained muted YoY
Borrowings 23550 20877 12.8 20711 13.7  

 

Q3FY23: Conference Call Highlights

  • Guidance for FY24E – Loan growth and disbursement growth to be ~20% YoY, NIMs at ~3.5%, Spreads at ~2.4%, 5-7 branch addition every year.
  • Loan contracts stood at 12000 vs 10500 in Q2FY23. Top 50 branches contributes ~40% of total loan book and ~35% of overall disbursements.
  • Loan book mix – Karnataka: 20-22%, Bangalore: 17%. Good demand seen in Telangana and Tamil Nadu. New states like Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat to have ~30% share in total loan book in FY24E..
  • During the quarter, the company has borrowed ₹900 crore from NHB vs total sanction of ₹1500 crore. Loans are reset on annual basis while borrowings are repriced on quarterly basis. Hence, there was a transmission lag which dragged NIMs in Q3FY23.
  • 72% of loan book is yet to be repriced and it will happen in next 3-6 months. So far, the company has passed on ~145 bps of hike to its customers. So going ahead, loan book repricing at a higher rate could aid NIMs.
  • Incremental credit cost stood steady at ~0.6% and expected to remain at similar levels going ahead. Restructured book stood at ₹700 crore (~2.3% of loan book) vs ₹647 crore (~2.2% of loan book) in previous quarter.
  • PCR increase is mainly due to shift in accounting policy from IRAC to INDAS norms wherein provision requirement is on higher side. Gross stage 2 assets stood steady at ~ ₹1000 crore. During Q3FY23, company has not written off any account.
  • Company may raise capital in next 2-3 quarters if required. No discussion at the moment regarding stake sale by Canara Bank. The candidate for position of MD & CEO has been finalised and expected to join before Mar’23.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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