loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
Text Size
Text to Speech
Color Contrast
Pause Animations

Open ICICI
3-in-1 Account

Manage your Savings, Demat and Trading Account conveniently at one place

+91

BLOG

Q2FY26 earnings expectations and global cues to drive market sentiments

ICICIdirect Research 03 Oct 2025 DISCLAIMER

Equity benchmark concluded volatile truncated week on a positive note as RBI's Banking reforms boosted the market sentiments. Nifty gained >150 points to settle at 24820. Broader market outperformed by gaining 1.5% as Financials remained at forefront supported by PSU and defense.

Key Highlight: Index is approaching Maturity of price and time wise correction that offers incremental buying opportunity as strong support is placed at 24400-24200 zone

What to expect:
Over past ten sessions index has undergone retracement of prevailing up move wherein follow through strength has been missing. Hence, sustainability above 24800 levels over next couple of sessions would revive the momentum and confirm resumption of uptrend driving Nifty towards 25300-25500 zone in upcoming weeks.

What can drive index higher:
The revived traction in BFSI (post RBI’s Banking reforms), Metal & Oil & Gas which cumulatively carries 50% weightage in Nifty would provide impetus to head toward 25500 in coming weeks
Bank Nifty has witnessed buying demand from 100 days EMA which has been held since April that helped index to recoup last week’s lost ground and closed above 55500 marks
Nifty Metal Index: The formation of higher peak and trough helped index to trade in the vicinity of All time High after 15 months
Oil & Gas : After 3 months breather Oil & Gas sector resuming uptrend post strong base formation at 200 days EMA

Maturity of Price and Time wise correction:
Nifty has rallied 18% off April low, within which intermediate corrections arrested within 3-5% range. Meanwhile, timewise, over past three decades, there have been 12 instances wherein index has staged a strong rebound after consecutive 8 sessions negative close, garnering 7% rolling return in a month.
In current scenario, with 3.5% correction already in place along with 8 consecutive negative close,  we expect index to maintain the same rhythm and stage a strong rebound. Hence focus should be on accumulating quality stocks with strong earnings

Nifty Seasonality: October month historically has been largely positive -
Despite being volatile month, October has been one of the best month for markets in last 12 years. Nifty has given positive returns on 9 out of 12 occasions. The average return for Nifty for October in last 12 years was >3%.
 
Brent Crude: Decline below 4 months low resulted into revers flag breakdown, indicating continuation of corrective bias. Falling crude oil prices bodes well for domestic market

Key Monitorable:
Development on tariff negotiations
Beginning of Q2FY26 earning season
Quarterly business updates 

Download ICICI Direct app

Invest, Track, and Manage your Portfolio Anytime, Anywhere

Download ICICI Direct app

Invest, Track, and Manage your Portfolio Anytime, Anywhere