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Markets set for double digit gains to 28800...

ICICIdirect Research 20 Dec 2024 DISCLAIMER

In the journey of Nifty @ 50000 by CY30, Nifty has achieved the milestone of 24800 for the CY24. After volatile H2CY24, our traditional as well as statistical analysis depicts that the stage has been set to embark upon the next up move towards 28800 levels in the CY25 while key support threshold is placed at 22000.

 Technical Analysis:

Expect Nifty to endure its northbound journey towards upper band of channel (drawn adjoining 2008-20 lows) placed around 28800 by CY25
Historically, buying near 52 weeks EMA offers favourable risk reward with a median return of 23% in next 12 months that validates our target of 28800. Meanwhile, median drawdown below 52 weeks EMA of 6%.
The breakout from 18 years ratio chart of Nifty 500 / Nifty 100 signifies, acceleration in broader market outperformance
As per past two decades seasonality, 5th year has been favorable for bulls wherein Nifty midcap and smallcap index have relatively outperformed the benchmark and garnered average return of 27% and 40%, respectively

 Statistical Analysis:  

Breadth Indicator tends to find support around 30-40 zone in bull market, resulting into average 20% upside in next 12 months. Currently, percentage of stocks above 200 days SMA has bounced to 62 levels after marking swing low at 42 last month
Historically, on five occasions despite Rs. >30000 cr FII’s sell-off in a single quarter, the average 1 year forward returns have been to the tune of 28%
Four-decade history suggest, post-election year returns have been positive with a success rate of 82%.The rolling average of past four elections is around 18% that corroborate with our Nifty target of 28800 by CY25
Our in-house Sector rotation model depicts outperformance of BFSI, Capital Goods, IT while PSU and Metal offer bargain buy opportunity

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