loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Birlasoft Ltd>
  • CMP : 613.1 Chg : -5.70 (-0.92%)
  • Target : 310.0 (10.71%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

23 Oct 2022

Revenue guidance downgraded from 15% to lower end of double digit in FY23…

About The Stock

Birlasoft Ltd (Birlasoft) has strength in non-ERP digital businesses like CRM, B & data analytics, app development & enterprise solution.

  • The company caters to manufacturing, BFSI, energy & utility and life sciences
  • Debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of >19%)
Q2FY23 Results:

Birlasoft reported muted numbers for Q2FY23.

  • Revenue was up 1.1% QoQ in CC terms
  • EBITDA margins improved marginally by ~10 bps QoQ to 14.8%
  • Signed TCV of US$166 mn during the quarter
What should Investors do?

Birlasoft’s share price has grown by ~2.4x since it demerger (from ~₹ 114 in February 2019 to ~₹ 280 levels in October 2022).

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value Birlasoft at ₹ 310 i.e. 15x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Revenue growth is expected to be achieved via client mining, cross sell, multi-year deals, expansion in Europe & APAC and focus on niche verticals
  • Aspiration to reach US$1 bn revenues, out of which US$800-850 mn organic growth while rest from inorganic opportunities
  • Expect dollar revenues to grow at 11.1% CAGR over FY22-25E
  • Margin expansion of 20 bps to 15.7% over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Birlasoft, in our IT coverage we also like Newgen.

  • Strong logo additions, increasing annuity revenues & GSI opportunity to aid revenue growth at 16.2% CAGR in FY22-25E
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 445

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 3,291.0 3,555.7 4,130.4 17.4 4,719.5 5,144.2 5,658.6 11.1
EBITDA 391.9 529.2 640.1 27.8 707.7 797.8 891.0 11.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 11.9 14.9 15.5 - 15.0 15.5 15.7 -
Net Profit 224.3 320.8 463.6 19.5 467.2 526.9 587.4 8.2
EPS (|) 8.1 11.6 16.3 - 16.6 18.7 20.8 -
P/E 34.5 24.3 16.9 - 16.3 14.5 13.0 -
RoNW (%) 11.9 14.7 17.9 - 19.8 19.8 19.5 -
RoCE (%) 17.0 19.8 23.1 - 26.1 26.2 25.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue for the quarter grew by 1.1% QoQ in CC terms while in dollar terms the company reported revenue of US$148.8 mn, reporting flat growth of 0.1% QoQ. In rupee terms, the company reported revenue growth of 3.3% QoQ to | 1,192.1 crore
  • The company indicated that revenue growth for the quarter was lower than their expectation. In Q1, revenue growth was lower on account of a couple of engagements not starting due to client specific issues. One of this started in Q2. However, the second is yet to start and Birlasoft is hopeful of starting the same in Q3. The company is also facing the issue of high attrition (albeit moderated in the last couple of quarters but continues to be high), which also impacting execution. The company had earlier given 15% US$ revenue guidance for FY23 but now it is guiding double digit growth. Birlasoft did see normal furlough impact in Q3. The company also mentioned that if the issues that it faced in Q1, Q2 continue and if attrition does not come down materially then it may end up at the lower end of double digit growth (closer to 10%). If it is able to cover ground lost so far in H1, in H2, then growth would be higher
  • Geography wise, US (84.1% mix) declined 0.8% QoQ while Europe reported growth of 4.5% QoQ on a favourable base (was down 16.6% QoQ in Q1). Vertical wise revenue from manufacturing & BFSI grew 1.2% & 7.4% QoQ, respectively, while energy & utilities and lifesciences continued to be stressed reporting a decline of 1.3% & 7.4% QoQ, respectively
  • The company mentioned that BFS has been strong due to ramp up of deals as the sector now forms its feet in the cloud transformation. However, lifesciences continue to see a decline in the revenue due to i) rationalising some part of revenues, ii) some projects finished and new projects are yet to ramp up, iii) some client related furloughs impacting growth. The company, however, expects a recovery in the lifesciences vertical revenue, going forward. Birlasoft also indicated that revenues in other sectors such as Hi-tech and Manufacturing have been steady
  • EBITDA margin improved marginally by 10 bps QoQ to 14.8%. The company indicated that the tailwinds for margin improvement like decline in travel cost, increase in offshore mix and operational efficiency were mitigated by the headwinds of high hiring cost & wage hike implementation
  • The company maintained EBITDA margin guidance of 15%. Birlasoft indicated that margin in Q2 was impacted by wage hike (covering 65-70% employees) while there would be a spillover of 100 bps impact in Q3 to cover wage hike for the rest of the employees. The company also mentioned that for some projects (including one large client, where delivery has been shifted on offshore from onsite due to compliance requirement), it is shifting onsite to offshore delivery model to improve margins by savings on higher subcontractor cost
  • The company, for the quarter, reported TCV of US$166 mn, down 10.3% QoQ including new deal wins of US$ 138 mn, up 23.2% QoQ. The new deal wins TCV were its highest since Q1FY22
  • Birlasoft LTM attrition declined 50 bps QoQ to 27.4% QoQ. This was the second successive month of moderation in attrition. The company indicated that it expects attrition to moderate further in H2, which will support in its margin improvement endeavour. Birlasoft also indicated that its attrition in Q3 will be lower than Q2
  • The company, during the quarter, hired 193 net new employees taking the total headcount to 12,758. Birlasoft indicated that it had hired 250 freshers in Q2 taking the total fresher hiring for H1FY23 to 500
  • The company sees a strong demand environment as clients continue to see spend on revenue maximisation as well as cost optimisation program. However, decision making is on the slower side where clients are taking more than expected time to decide on spend. Some clients also wish to have more spread out deal execution vs. earlier normal duration of two to three years to mitigate impact on their cash outflow
  • The company continues with its aspiration to reach US$1 bn revenue but indicated that target year i.e. FY25 could be shifted forward. Birlasoft also reiterated that aspirational revenue target does include inorganic opportunities. The company indicated that they are actively looking for M&A but nothing worth mentioning as of now
  • On pricing, the company mentioned that it has just finished negotiations with one of its existing large clients some time back and was able to secure a price hike. Birlasoft also indicated that in some cases they are also getting push back as far as pricing is concerned so the environment on pricing is very dynamic right now. The company, however, is getting new projects at higher prices
  • During the quarter the company completed the buyback of 78,00,000 shares for | 500 each it had earlier announced
  • Birlasoft declared an interim dividend of | 1.5 per share & fixed November 2, as the record date for determining eligible shareholders
 
Variance Analysis
 
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,192 1,012 17.8 1,154 3.3 Revenue growth impacted due to client specific issues and high attriton
Employee expense 694 576 20.4 658 5.5  
             
Gross Margin 498 435 14.5 497 0.3  
Gross margin (%) 41.8 43.0 -123 bps 43.0 -122 bps  
Other expense 322 283 13.6 327 -1.5  
             
EBITDA 176.4 151.8 16.2 169.8 3.9  
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.8 15.0 -21 bps 14.7 9 bps Margin steady despite wage hike & supply side challenges due to the tailwinds of decline in travel expenses, increase in off shore mix & operational efficiency
Depreciation & amortisation 21 19 6.8 20 5.2  
EBIT 156 132 17.6 150 3.7  
EBIT Margin (%) 13.1 13.1 -3 bps 13.0 5 bps  
Other income (less interest) -3 9 -129.1 15 -117.6  
PBT 153 142 7.9 166 -7.6  
Tax paid 32 35 -8.5 42 -22.9  
PAT 121 107 13.3 124 -2.5  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Paridkar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More