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  • CMP : 433.4 Chg : 1.50 (0.35%)
  • Target : 420.0 (20.0%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

04 Aug 2022

Client specific issues impact Q1 performance…

About The Stock

Birlasoft Ltd (Birlasoft) has strength in non-ERP digital businesses like CRM, B & data analytics, app development & enterprise solution.

  • The company caters to manufacturing, BFSI, energy & utility and life sciences
  • Debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of >19%)
Q1FY23 Results

Birlasoft reported muted numbers.

  • Revenue was up 2.3% in CC, 1.5% QoQ in dollar terms
  • EBITDA margins were down ~115 bps QoQ to 14.7%
  • Deal pipeline is up at US$1.7 billion (bn) in Q1 from US$1.2 bn in FY22
What should Investors do?

Birlasoft’s share price has grown by ~3x since it demerger (from ~₹ 114 in February 2019 to ~₹ 350 levels in August 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Birlasoft at ₹ 420 i.e. 21x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Revenue growth is expected to be achieved via client mining, cross sell, multi-year deals, expansion in Europe & APAC and focus on niche verticals
  • Aspiration to reach US$1 bn revenues, out of which US$800-850 mn organic growth while rest from inorganic opportunities
  • Expect dollar revenues to grow at 12.5% CAGR over FY22-24E
  • Margin expansion of 50 bps to 16.0% over FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Birlasoft, in our IT coverage we also like Mastek.

  • Growth in new logo acquisition, increasing deal size, expansion of sales & marketing and market share gains to drive revenues
  •  HOLD with target price of ₹ 2,000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (FY19-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 2,550.7 3,291.0 3,555.7 4,130.4 17.4 4,767.2 5,339.3 13.7
EBITDA 306.4 391.9 529.2 640.1 27.8 712.7 854.3 15.5
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.0 11.9 14.9 15.5 - 15.0 16.0 -
Net Profit 271.9 224.3 320.8 463.8 19.5 470.2 565.2 10.4
EPS (|) 13.4 8.1 11.6 16.3 - 16.6 19.9 -
P/E 29.9 43.2 30.3 21.1 - 20.8 17.3 -
RoNW (%) 15.9 11.9 14.7 17.9 - 16.6 17.9 -
RoCE (%) 15.5 17.0 19.8 23.1 - 22.1 23.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue for the quarter grew 1.5% QoQ in dollar terms to US$148.6 mn while in CC terms it reported growth of 2.3% QoQ. In rupee terms, the company reported revenue growth of 4.8% QoQ to | 1,154.4 crore
  • The company indicated that it had signed two large deals (one is 1.5 years in duration while other one is of three years) in the band of US$15-20 mn in Q4, which were to be executed in Q1FY23. However, as these projects were delayed due to client specific issues on re-alignment of their business models, the impact on revenues was to the tune of US$2 mn for the quarter. The company indicated that the deals were not delayed to macroeconomic headwinds but due to internal realignment of their business model. The company also indicated that one of the projects was started at the end of Q1 while the other is yet to start. It is hopeful on starting the same. The company also maintained its 15% revenue growth guidance for FY23 as it expects growth to pick up in subsequent quarters
  • The company also indicated that it was witnessing supply side constraints due to delay in joining of some employees, which also had an impact on revenues for the quarter
  • Geography wise, US (84.9% mix) grew 4.8% QoQ. Europe (9.2% mix) declined 16.6% QoQ & RoW declined 9.3% QoQ. The company indicated that Europe region reported flattish growth in CC terms but reported revenue decline due to cross currency impact. Vertical wise revenue from manufacturing & BFSI grew 2.8% & 5% QoQ, respectively, while energy & utilities and Lifescience declined 3.9% & 0.4% QoQ, respectively
  • The company reported EBITDA margin decline of ~115 bps QoQ to 14.7%. The company reported an EBITDA of | 169.8 crore, down 2.7% QoQ. The company indicated that the decline in EBITDA margin was on account of an increase in sub-contractor cost, higher cost of hiring & lower utilisation and also some incremental costs regarding payments to consultants for strategy formulation for its US$1 bn revenue aspiration by FY25. The company indicated that payments to consultants is a recurring cost for the next few quarters
  • The company indicated that it will roll out wage hikes in Q2 but it guided that it will maintain its EBITDA guidance of 15% for FY23 and indicated following levers for margin improvement in subsequent quarters:

i)                Moderation of sub-contractor cost: The company indicated it is expected to focus on replacement of sub-contractors onsite with their own employees, which is expected to improve margins by at least 100-150 bps

ii)               Improvement in utilisation: The company reported that its utilisation dropped 270 bps QoQ to 82.5%. Birlasoft indicated that the drop was due to delay in start of two large deals as well as delay in new joinees. The company indicated that the utilisation levels are expected to improve from Q2 onwards and it is expected to reach historical levels of around 85% in a few quarters from now

  • The company reported TCV of US$185 mn, down 16.7% QoQ. Birlasoft reported it signed new deals of US$112 mn, down 10.4% QoQ while renewals were at US$73 mn, down 24.7% QoQ. The company indicated that the funnel continues to be strong as it has increased to US$1.7 bn in Q1 from US$1.2 bn in FY22 and is not witnessing any slowdown in tech spending due to macro concerns
  • Birlasoft indicated that it has changed its LTM attrition accounting to align with the industry. The company reported LTM attrition of 27.9%, down 150 bps QoQ. Birlasoft added 364 net new employees including 200 freshers taking its total headcount to 12,565. The company indicated that it will hire 500 freshers in Q2 as it is ramping up for increased demand

 

  • The Board of directors approved the buyback of 78,00,000 shares for | 500 each through tender route through postal ballot on June 30, 2022. The company has initiated dispatching the letter of offer to eligible shareholders. Birlasoft indicated that the tendering period for buyback will commence from August 11, 2022 and conclude on August 26, 2022
 
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,154 945 22.1 1,101 4.8 Revenue was impacted client specific issues with couple of clients, impact of US$2mn 
Employee expense 658 556 18.3 630 4.5  
             
Gross Margin 497 389 27.5 472 5.3  
Gross margin (%) 43.0 41.2 183 bps 42.8 18 bps  
Other expense 327 238 37.2 297 9.9 Other exp. Increased due to higher sub-contractor cost, lower utilization & increase in cost of hirings and on account of consultant charges for US$1bn revenue aspiration
             
EBITDA 169.8 151.1 12.4 174.5 -2.7  
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.7 16.0 -127 bps 15.8 -114 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 20 18 6.5 20 -1.6  
EBIT 150 133 13.2 155 -2.9  
EBIT Margin (%) 13.0 14.0 -102 bps 14.0 -103 bps  
Other income (less interest) 15 21 -27.9 23 -31.6  
PBT 166 154 7.5 177 -6.5  
Tax paid 42 38 10.8 41 2.3  
PAT 124 116 6.4 136 -9.2  

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