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Biocon Ltd>
  • CMP : 261.7 Chg : -5.55 (-2.08%)
  • Target : 380.0 (2.70%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 May 2022

Beat on estimates, eyes on BBL’s strategic moves…

About The Stock

 Biocon mainly operates in biologics (biosimilars), small molecules (generics), branded formulations and contract research (Syngene). Biocon Biologics (BBL), a subsidiary of Biocon, entered into an arrangement to acquire Viatris’ biosimilars assets for US$3.335 billion. Biocon Biologics entered into a strategic alliance with SILS for access to 100 million vaccine doses per annum for 15 years.

  • Biosimilar US pipeline: (approvals - Pegfilgrastim, Trastuzumab, Glargine, Adalimumab); filed - Aspart and Bevacizumab
  • In generics, it is among the world’s largest manufacturers of immunosuppressant and statin APIs
  • Revenue breakup FY22: Biosimilars (41%), Generics (28%), CRAMS (31%)
Q4FY22

Biocon reported strong revenues driven by all three segments.

  • Revenue was up 31% YoY to ₹ 2409 crore
  • EBITDA in Q4FY22 was ₹ 592 crore, up 36% YoY with margins at 24.6%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was at ₹ 239 crore (down 6% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Biocon’s share price has grown by ~1.2x over the past three years (from ~₹ 310 in April 2019 to ~₹ 370 levels in April 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD as 1) we wait for Viatris deals impact considering sheer balance sheet expansion, 2) execution risks with incremental size of business verticals and 3) persistent price erosion and regulatory issues
Target Price Valuation

We value Biocon at ₹ 380 on SOTP basis 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Biosimilars- 1) market share gains in existing biosimilars, 2) approvals and launches of bBevacizumab and bAspart, 3) bGlargine ramp up, 4) Expected Adalimumab launch in FY24
  • Generics- 1) Expansion beyond fermentation based APIs, 2) Capacity augmentation in immunosuppressants and synthetic APIs and 3) expanding formulations portfolio through vertical integration
  • CRAMs- Syngene’s consistent growth in Discovery, Dedicated, Development and Manufacturing services
  • Execution on vaccines front post strategic alliance with Serum and potential synergies with acquisition of Vitaris biosimilar business from H2CY22
New Stock Ideas

Besides Biocon, in formulations space we like Sun Pharma.

  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses by FY23
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1075

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 5,514.4 6,367.2 7,143.1 8,184.0 15.9 11,213.0 14,309.3 32.2
EBITDA (| crore) 1,361.2 1,603.1 1,674.0 1,915.2 17.6 2,649.8 3,590.6 36.9
EBITDA margins (%) 24.7 25.2 23.4 23.4 - 23.6 25.1 -
Net Profit (| crore) 744.8 698.2 751.7 683.8 -0.6 727.4 1,401.5 43.2
EPS (|) 6.2 5.8 6.3 5.7 - 6.1 11.7 -
P/E (x) 49.1 59.4 58.3 74.8 - 61.1 31.7 -
RoCE (%) 10.9 10.2 7.7 7.5 - 5.0 6.9 -
RoE (x) 12.2 10.4 9.9 8.1 - 3.2 5.9 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Uptick in revenues, margins steady

  • Revenues grew 31% YoY to | 2409 crore driven by biosimilars growing 48% YoY to | 982 crore on back of improved performance across geographies and market share gains by interchangeable bGlargine in the US. Research services segment grew 15% YoY to | 758 crore driven by strong quarter for development services as it caught up on postponed projects in addition to planned work while generic sales increased 26% YoY to | 717 crore driven by contribution from new launch of Everolimus in US, uptick in API business and normalisation of supply challenges. EBITDA margins came in-line with our expectations amid a 91 bps YoY improvement to 24.6% mainly due to decline in gross margin (down 296 bps YoY) at 65.6% and higher other expenditure being offset by lower employee cost. Overall EBITDA improved 36% YoY to | 592 crore while adjusted PAT de-grew 5.8% YoY to | 239 crore. Delta vis-a vis EBITDA was on account of lower other income and higher depreciation being partially offset by lower interest and tax expense
  • Biocon’s Q4FY22 revenues were above estimates driven by strong performance across all segments while margins were in line. In generics, Biocon’s focus is on expediting product pipeline (launched Posaconazole and Dorzolamide in US) and operationalising new capacities (Vizag API facility in FY23). On the biosimilars front, two strategic transactions with Serum and Viatris are likely to contribute from H2CY22 while timely launches and ramp up of biosimilars in the developed as well as emerging markets remain key to capture market share in the projected 3.3x increase in Biocon’s target addressable market from US$21 billion in FY22 to US$69 billion in FY26. Syngene’s ability to take advantage in the CRAMS space with operating leverage will also be an important factor for the company

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Generics – The business saw robust sequential as well as YoY growth in Q4, on the back of contributions from new product launches in the US, particularly Everolimus, an uptick in the API business and a normalisation of supply challenges that impacted in first half of the fiscal
  • Biocon received USFDA approvals for Posaconazole, a vertically integrated anti-fungal drug and Dorzolamide, an ophthalmic product, both of which were launched during the quarter
  • Greenfield immunosuppressant API facility in Vizag remains on track with qualification and validation activities planned in FY23
  • Biosimilars – Growth in revenues this quarter was a result of improved performance across developed and emerging markets, driven by strong market share gains for interchangeable bGlargine in the US
  • R&D was at 9% of revenues in FY22 with ramp up guided for FY23
  • Research Services - Q4 growth was driven by solid delivery across all divisions, with a strong performance by Development Services.
  • Capex Guidance – US$100 million in FY23
  • R&D investments guidance for 10-15% of revenue in FY23
  • The two strategic transactions with Serum Institute Life Sciences (SILS) and Viatris announced in FY22 are progressing towards various regulatory approvals. The deals are expected to be closed in the second half of CY22
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2,408.8 2,292.9 1,842.1 30.8 2,174.2 10.8   Revenue growth beats our estimates driven by strong performance across all segments
Raw Material cost 828.3 751.8 578.9 43.1 712.9 16.2    
Gross margins 65.6 67.2 68.6 -296 bps 67.2 -160 bps   YoY decline on the back of pricing pressure along with higher raw material prices
Employee cost 470.3 522.0 452.1 4.0 495.0 -5.0    
R & D Expenditure  191.0 158.9 127.0 50.4 138.0 38.4   Gross R&D spend was | 232 crore in Q4FY22
Other Expenditures 327.3 298.1 248.2 31.9 340.1 -3.8    
Total Expenditure  1,816.9 1,730.8 1,406.2 29.2 1,686.0 7.8    
EBITDA 591.9 562.0 435.9 35.8 488.2 21.2    
EBITDA (%) 24.6 24.5 23.7 91 bps 22.5 212 bps   In-line with estimates as lower employee cost offsets the decline in gross margins and increse in R&D and other expenditure
Interest 10.5 42.6 33.9 -69.0 14.7 -28.6    
Depreciation 212.2 205.7 184.3 15.1 205.7 3.2    
Other income 67.3 50.9 205.4 -67.2 48.3 39.3    
EO 41.0 0.0 -12.6 LP 0.0 0.0    
PBT 395.5 364.7 435.7 -9.2 316.1 25.1    
Tax 58.6 80.2 69.4 -15.6 49.3 18.9    
MI 45.3 43.1 43.2 4.9 32.5 39.4    
Adj. PAT 238.6 237.8 253.3 -5.8 187.1 27.5   Delta vis-a vis EBITDA was on account of lower other income and higher depreciation being partially offset by lower interest and tax expense
Key Metrics                
Generics 717.2 616.0 570.4 25.7 607.4 18.1   Beats estimates driven by contribution from new launch of Everolimus in US, uptick in API business, normalisation of supply challenges
Biosimilars 982.3 959.6 663.6 48.0 981.4 0.1   YoY growth on back of improved performance across geographies and market share gains by interchangeable bGlargine in US
Contract Research  758.1 703.6 658.6 15.1 641.4 18.2   YoY growth driven by strong quarter for development services as it caught up on postponed projects in addition to planned work
 
Valuation

Particulers FY24E EBITDA (| cr) Multiple (x) Value (| )
Biocon Biologics 2127.7 18.0 38,298.4
Biocon's Holding     63%
Holding Company Discount     20%
Biocon Biologics valuation     19302.40
Biocon (ex-Biologics and Syngene) 305.8 8.0 2,446.2
Total EV     40,744.6
Implied Mcap     25,618.2
Per share valuation     213.4
NPV (Vaccines)     31.7
Syngene      
Targeted Market Cap     29200
Biocon's Holding     71.1%
Holding Company Discount     20.0%
Syngene valuation     16600
Per share valuation     138
SOTP valuation     380

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