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Biocon Ltd>
  • CMP : 307.1 Chg : 0.65 (0.21%)
  • Target : 230.0 (-4.56%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 Feb 2023

Steady performance; focus on Viatris integration...

About The Stock

Biocon mainly operates in biologics (biosimilars), small molecules (generics), branded formulations and contract research (Syngene). Biocon Biologics (BBL), a subsidiary of Biocon, entered into an arrangement to acquire Viatris’ biosimilars assets for US$3.34 billion. Biocon Biologics entered into a strategic alliance with SILS for access to 100 million vaccine doses per annum for 15 years.

  • Biosimilar US pipeline: (approvals - bPegfilgrastim, bTrastuzumab, bGlargine, bAdalimumab)
  • In generics, among the world’s largest manufacturers of immunosuppressant and statin APIs
  • Revenue breakup Q3FY23: Biosimilars (50%), Generics (26%), CRAMS (24%)
Q3FY23

Numbers incorporating Viatris (November 29, 2023 cut-off date)

  • Revenues grew 35.3% YoY to ₹ 2941.1 crore
  • EBITDA margins declined 55 bps YoY to 21.9%. Overall EBITDA improved 32% YoY to ₹ 644.3 crore
  • Loss of ₹ 41.8 crore due to ₹ 271 crore of Viatris integration related expenses 
What should Investors do?

Biocon’s share price has de-grown at 7.4% CAGR over the past three years.

  • We maintain HOLD rating due to 1) growing margins sensitivity, 2) Viatris deal and subsequent execution risks and 3) impending price erosion risks, regulatory issues and increasing competitive landscape
Target Price and Valuation

We value Biocon at ₹ 230 on an SOTP basis.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Biosimilars- 1) Market share gains in existing biosimilars, 2) approvals and launches of bBevacizumab and bAspart, 3) bGlargine ramp up, 4) expected bAdalimumab launch in FY23
  • Generics- 1) Expansion beyond fermentation based APIs, 2) capacity augmentation in immunosuppressants and synthetic APIs and 3) expanding formulations portfolio through vertical integration
  • CRAMs - Syngene’s consistent growth in discovery, dedicated, development and manufacturing services
  • Execution on vaccines front post strategic alliance with Serum and potential synergies with acquisition of Viatris biosimilar business from H2FY23
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides Biocon, in formulations space we like Sun Pharma.

  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchisee
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1210

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues (| crore) 6,367.2 7,143.1 8,184.0 15.9 10,702.0 14,154.6 17,390.0 27.5
EBITDA (| crore) 1,603.1 1,674.0 1,915.2 17.6 2,164.5 3,075.8 3,789.9 32.3
EBITDA margins (%) 25.2 23.4 23.4 - 20.2 21.7 21.8 -
Net Profit (| crore) 698.2 751.7 683.8 -0.6 624.9 1,539.3 2,245.7 89.6
EPS (|) 5.8 6.3 5.7 - 5.2 12.8 18.7 -
P/E (x) 38.7 38.0 48.8 - 76.6 18.8 12.9 -
RoCE (%) 10.2 7.7 7.5 - 3.3 5.1 6.2 -
RoE (x) 10.4 9.9 8.1 - 2.7 6.2 8.3 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Mixed set of numbers

  • Revenues grew 35.3% YoY to | 2941.1 crore. Biosimilars grew 53.5% YoY to | 1506 crore. Contract services segment grew 22.5% YoY at | 785.9 crore while generic sales increased 18.1% YoY to | 717.6 crore. Overall EBITDA improved 32% YoY to | 644.3 crore. EBITDA margins declined 55 bps YoY
    to 21.9%. Margins were suppressed due to pricing pressure in the US. PBT declined due to higher interest and amortisation costs followed by exceptional item amounting to | 182 crore net of tax that was linked with Viatris deal related expenses. Adjusted PAT was at - | 41.8 crore. PAT was also impacted by dilution of Biocon’s stake in Biocon Biologics and Syngene
  • Biocon’s Q3FY23 revenues were below estimates on the revenue front but beat on margins. Delta in revenues due to higher than expected Viatris integration sales (we had estimated full three month’s impact)

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Regional mix:

  • Advanced Markets continued to see strong penetration of its commercialised products, where it enjoys double-digit share in the US. Aims to inch contribution from advanced market to ~70%
  • In Europe, biosimilar bAdalimumab continued to witness strong uptake in key markets like Germany and France where it enjoys 18% and 10% market share, respectively
  • During the quarter, it also witnessed traction in bTrastuzumab market, performance of which in Europe achieved 17% and 20% market share in France and Italy, respectively
  • The Emerging Markets business continues to deliver a strong performance underpinned by the insulin portfolio and biosimilar bTrastuzumab

Biocon generics:

  • An increase in demand for generic formulations, particularly statins, and immunosuppressant APIs, as well as recent product releases, contributed to the performance throughout the quarter. Margins remained muted due to the product mix and continuing pricing pressure in the US market
  • It entered into a long-term strategic relationship with Farmanguinhos in Brazil for the supply and tech-transfer of a finished dose formulation immunosuppressant product
  • It signed a partnership agreement with Zentiva for the commercialisation of Liraglutide in Europe. These partnerships will lead to expansion of market share, thus contributing towards attaining mid-teens growth in the short to medium term
  • Zentiva has semi-exclusive rights. Hence, it plans to commercialise directly

Biocon Biologics:

  • On November 29, 2022, it successfully finalised the acquisition of its Biosimilars business from Viatris
  • Overall, the performance showed a 54% increase as a result of such deal and its ongoing expansion in BBL-led areas
  • Q3FY23 only includes a small portion of the acquired business. However, starting in Q4FY23, the whole Biosimilars business will be recognised in the financials
  • To increase the value of the combined organisation and spur growth, the company plans to execute integration of this business in various companies
  • Market share rise in the US and EU is being accompanied by a growth trajectory from emerging markets

 

 

 

Product launches:

  • It launched biosimilar products in eight new markets this quarter
  • It continued to launch its products in new markets with biosimilar Bevacizumab in Australia and biosimilar gGlargine and gAspart in Canada during the quarter
  • It also secured approvals for some of the key formulation products in Europe
  • There are several upcoming launches including biosimilar Adalimumab in the US

Capex:

  • Biocon’s greenfield immunosuppressant API facility in Visakhapatnam and peptide facility in Bengaluru is progressing as per schedule. The commencement of validation batches at both sites is expected to be completed by H1FY24
  • It spent US$70 million. Most of the spends this year and next year will be towards the Malaysia Phase II expansion

Other highlights:

  • Contract services benefited from repeat orders from existing clients as well as an increase in the number of collaborations with emerging biopharma companies. Biocon is also confident of delivering mid-teens growth in the fiscal year
  • R&D investments normalised to around 12% levels of sales
  • It experienced payer acceptance form other biosimilars, which have been launched during the quarter
  • Enjoyed good success in Europe wherein there was good patient experience and the management expects it to translate to US markets
  • Growth in FY24 will come from the launch of Adalimumab in the US and continued growth in Glargine, bTrastuzumab and bPegfilgrastim
  • The company is into low-strength formulation for Adalimumab
  • Launches of bAspart and Bevacizumab in the US post approval will support the growth story
  • Revenues from Biocon Biologics are targeted at | 2000 crore in Q4FY23 excluding vaccines
  • It expects incremental revenues post regulatory approval for both bBevacizumab and bAspart
  • CAPA plan has been accepted by the USFDA for Malaysia
  • It received the CRL for bBevacizumab in Bangalore earlier this month
  • bAflibercept remains a sizable opportunity for the company to foray into the ophthalmology space

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar-Inter CA, Kushal Shah-CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain-MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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