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Bharat Electronics Ltd>
  • CMP : 153.6 Chg : 6.15 (4.17%)
  • Target : 130.0 (38.30%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jan 2023

Execution in line; higher costs impact margins…

About The Stock

Bharat Electronics (BEL) is a leading aerospace and defence electronics company. It primarily manufactures advance electronics products.

  • Multi-product, multi-technology- diverse product range including radar, missile systems, electronic warfare & avionics, anti-submarine warfare, electro-optics, homeland security, civilian products, etc
  • Focus to increase the non-defence share to ~20% over two to three years
Q3FY23

Revenue came in line with estimates; higher than expected raw material costs impacted margins.

  • Revenue increased 11.8% YoY (up 4.7% QoQ) to ₹ 4131.0 crore; largely in line with estimates. The growth was primarily driven by better execution

 

  • EBITDA margin contracted 160 bps YoY (-103 bps QoQ) to 20.7%; lower than our estimate of 22.2%. This was primarily on account of higher than expected raw material cost

 

  •                 PAT increased 2.6% YoY to ₹ 598.8 crore against our estimate of ₹ 653.1 crore; primarily due to lower-than-expected OPM

 

Order backlog was at ₹ 50116 crore as of December 2022 end (2.9x TTM revenues). Implied order inflows were at ₹ 1452 crore during Q3FY23 and
₹ 3736 during 9MFY23

What should Investors do?

Overall, expected double digit revenue, order inflow growth, sustained margins and strong order book to ensure better performance.

  • We remain long term positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value BEL at ₹ 130 i.e. 28x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strategy to diversify into non-defence areas, focus on increasing exports and services share would aid long term growth and help de-risk its business
  • Strong order pipeline in FY23-24E
  • We expect revenue, EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 18.5%, 20.1%, respectively, in FY22-FY24E aided by sustained margins at ~22%
  • Strong balance sheet, double digit returns ratios
Larsen & Toubro
  • Focus on monetisation of non-core assets, improving RoEs and reducing debt make it an attractive bet to ride the infrastructure revival theme

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 2355

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY22 FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Revenues 12,084.6 12,921.1 14,063.8 4.9 15,313.7 18,137.8 21,511.5 18.5
EBITDA 2,862.1 2,730.1 3,181.2 2.9 3,309.2 4,008.8 4,775.6 20.1
EBITDA margin (%) 23.7 21.1 22.6 - 21.6 22.1 22.2 -
Net Profit 1,927.3 1,793.8 2,065.5 4.0 2,348.9 2,750.6 3,279.0 18.2
EPS (|) 2.6 2.5 2.8 - 3.2 3.8 4.5 -
P/E (x) 35.7 38.3 33.3 - 29.3 25.0 21.0 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.1 24.7 20.5 - 19.6 16.2 13.3 -
RoCE (%) 33.0 27.4 35.5 - 43.2 43.4 43.1 -
RoE (%) 23.5 19.9 24.9 - 32.1 32.3 32.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Analysis

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
Operating Income 4,131.0 4,081.0 3,693.7 11.8 3,946 4.7 Revenue came in-line with estimates
Other income 57.5 75.0 59.3 -3.1 75 -23.4  
Total Revenue 4,188.5 4,156.0 3,753.0 11.6 4,020.8 4.2  
Raw materials costs 2,415.7 2,314.9 2,200.2 9.8 2,238 7.9  
Employees Expenses 567.4 558.8 503.9 12.6 596 -4.7  
Other Expenses 294.4 299.3 167.5 75.8 256 14.9  
Total Expenditure 3,277.5 3,173.0 2,871.6 14.1 3,090 6.1  
EBITDA 853.5 908.0 822.1 3.8 855.8 -0.3  
EBITDA margins (%) 20.7 22.2 22.3 -160 bps 21.7 -103 bps Higher costs impacted margins
Interest 9.7 1.3 0.2   1.7    
Depreciation 100.8 105.0 92.9 8.5 104.2 -3.3  
Tax 201.7 223.6 205.0 -1.6 213.8 -5.7  
PAT 598.8 653.1 583.4 2.6 611.1 -2.0  
  • Revenue from operations for the quarter increased by 11.8% YoY to
    | 4131.0 crore; largely in line with our estimate of | 4081.0 crore. Sequentially, revenue grew 4.7%. The YoY growth was primarily driven by better execution. The 9MFY23 revenue growth was at 24.5% YoY as revenues grew significantly by 33.3% YoY in H1FY23 on a lower base (as H1FY22 revenues were impacted by supply chain issues)

 

  • Gross margin was at 41.5% during the quarter; improved 109 bps YoY but lower than our estimate of 43.3%. Total raw material cost has increased 9.8% YoY

 

  • EBITDA margin contracted by 160 bps YoY to 21.7%; lower than our estimate of 22.2%. This was primarily on account of lower-than-expected gross margin. Employee cost and others costs increased 12.6% and 75.8% YoY, respectively and came in-line with our estimates. Sequentially also, the EBITDA margin contracted by 103 bps

 

  • EBITDA increased by 3.8% YoY basis at | 853.5 crore (vs. I-direct estimate of | 908.0 crore) as the revenue growth of 11.8% has been negated by contraction in margins. Sequentially, EBITDA remained largely flattish. The 9MFY23 EBITDA was up 27.6% YoY as the revenue growth & margins during H1FY23 were better on a YoY basis (9MFY23 EBITDA margin was at 19.9%, up marginally by 49 bps YoY

 

  • PAT increased 2.6% YoY (-2.1% QoQ) to | 598.8 crore against our estimate of | 653.1 crore on account of a muted operational performance on both YoY & QoQ basis. Other income was at | 57.5 crore (-3.1% YoY). Sequentially, PAT declined 2.0%. The 9MFY23 PAT was up 36% YoY

 

  • The order book position of the company was at | 50116 crore as of December 2022 end (~2.9x TTM revenues). Implied order inflows were at
    | 1452 crore during Q2FY23 and | 3736 during 9MFY23

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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