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  • CMP : 538.9 Chg : -1.15 (-0.21%)
  • Target : 740.0 (9.63%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

09 Aug 2022

Strong performance led by volume growth…

About The Stock

Berger Paints is the second largest paint player in India.

  • Berger derives ~80-85% of its topline from decorative paints while the rest comes from the industrial segment. The company has ~13 manufacturing units in India with ~50,000 dealer network across India
  • Strong b/s with RoCE, RoE of 26%, 22%, respectively, (five-year average)
Q1FY23 Results

Strong revenue growth led by improved demand traction both in decorative and industrial paints.

  • Revenue increased 53% YoY to ~₹ 2760 crore in Q1FY23 on a favourable base and improved demand traction from both industrial and decorative paints. The decorative paint volume increased ~35% YoY
  • High raw material cost dragged gross margin down 283 bps YoY. However, impact of higher raw material cost was completely offset by savings in employee and other costs, resulting in EBITDA margin expansion of 141 bps YoY to 14.7%
  • PAT increased ~81% YoY to ₹ 254 crore tracking higher sales growth and EBITDA margin expansion in Q1
What should Investors do?

Berger’s share price has given ~183% return over the past five years (from ~₹ 238 in August 2017 to ~₹ 675 levels in May 2022).

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value Berger at ₹ 740 i.e. 60x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Repainting represents ~80% of total decorative paint demand. Gradual reduction in repainting cycle would drive future paint demand
  • Increased focus on the ‘water proofing & building chemical’ category will continue to drive revenue growth for Berger. Water proofing & building chemical industry is pegged at ₹ 6000 crore vs. ₹ 1.5 lakh crore in China
  • New product launches and expansion of manufacturing capabilities
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Asian Paints (APL) in our coverage universe. APL is India’s largest decorative paint company. The company derives ~98% revenue from the paints business. Robust b/s with RoCE, RoE of 30%, 25%, respectively.

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3700

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 6,061.9 6,365.8 6,817.6 8,761.8 0.1 10,375.2 11,438.9 0.1
EBITDA 881.6 1,061.0 1,188.0 1,331.1 0.1 1,514.8 1,830.2 0.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.5 16.7 17.4 15.2 - 14.6 16.0 -
Net Profit 497.5 656.1 719.7 833.0 0.1 962.4 1,195.0 0.2
EPS (|) 5.1 6.8 7.4 8.6 - 9.9 12.3 -
P/E (x) 131.8 99.9 91.1 78.7 - 68.1 54.9 -
Price/Book (x) 26.5 24.6 19.4 16.7 - 17.2 15.2 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 10.8 10.3 9.6 7.5 - 6.3 5.7 -
RoE (%) 20.1 24.7 21.3 21.2 - 25.2 27.7 -
RoCE (%) 26.2 26.6 24.9 23.3 - 27.6 31.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Strong volume growth drives topline

  • Berger reported strong revenue growth of ~53% YoY to | 2760 crore on a favourable base and improved demand traction from both Industrial and Decorative paints. Decorative paint volumes increased 35% YoY. New product launches and dealer addition in the western and southern regions helped drive volume growth for the company. The company has taken price hike of ~3% (over and above ~18% price hike in FY22), resulting in higher realisations in Q1FY23
  • On a three-year basis, revenue grew at a CAGR of 17% led by volume CAGR of ~14% during the same period
  • The gross margin declined 283 bps YoY tracking higher raw material costs and change in sales mix. However, the EBITDA margin was up 141 bps YoY to 15.8% as better operating leverage offset the impact of higher raw material cost in Q1FY23
  • PAT during the period increased ~81% YoY to ~| 254 crore on account of higher sales growth and EBITDA margin expansion in Q1

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The management has reiterated double digit volume growth guidance in FY23 supported by product launches and dealer additions
  • Berger reported slow revenue growth in the north and central regions due to a gap in product portfolios and aggressive expansion of market leader in those regions
  • The company has a limited presence in the putty/economic product ranges and plans to increase its presence, going forward. The putty/economic product sales grew 17% YoY, much lower than the company level sales growth of 53% YoY
  • According to the management, the waterproofing segment has been seeing good traction and it expects it to contribute significantly to revenue. Currently, the contribution of this segment to topline is in single digits
  • The company aims to grow its decorative paint business by expansion of network and brand building. On the brand building side, Berger aims to increase its focus and invest in the luxury category and waterproofing segment
  • Berger will be launching two new products in the waterproofing category this month. The management expects these products to lead to good volumes as there is a gap in supply and demand from consumers
  • The company has seen good growth both in terms of volume and value in terms of automotive sales. Demand for industrial paints is rising with revival of auto industry
  • Berger is not looking to diversify into kitchen, bath, lighting and furnishing areas. It plans to focus completely on paints, waterproofing and construction chemicals as of now
  • According to the management, of the total gross margin decline of 280 bps YoY in Q1FY23, ~100 bps dip was due to the effect of project business taken up in Q1FY22. The rest contributed to higher sales of low margin products in the industrial paint segments
  • The margins were also affected due to rise in raw material prices. The management is aiming to restore the gross margin at ~38% levels and is not looking at expanding it currently unless there is a sharp decline in raw material prices. EBITDA margin is expected to be around 15-17% level
  • Berger has a presence in ~50,000 retail counters and ~42,000 tinting machines
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2,759.7 2,293.3 1,798.5 53.4 2,187.5 26.2   Favourable base and strong demand of decorative paints drives  revenue growth in Q1
Other Income 13.0 17.9 17.0 -23.4 19.1 -31.8    
                 
Raw Material Exp 1,773.1 1,387.4 1,104.7 60.5 1,336.4 32.7   Higher raw material prices and change in product mix resulted decline in gross margin by 283 bps YoY
Employee Exp 146.0 146.8 131.0 11.4 134.1 8.9    
Other exp 435.7 412.8 324.3 34.4 370.5 17.6    
Total Exp 2,354.9 1,947.0 1,560.0 51.0 1,841.1 27.9    
EBITDA 404.8 346.3 238.5 69.7 346.4 16.9    
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.7 15.1 13.3 141 bps 15.8 -117 bps   higher raw material prices were completely offset through postive operating leverage which led to increase in EBITDA margin YoY
Depreciation 62.8 56.9 54.8 14.6 59.8 5.1    
Interest 16.3 13.8 9.6 69.7 14.6 11.3    
Exceptional items                
PBT 338.8 293.5 191.2 77.2 291.2 16.4    
Total Tax 88.6 73.4 49.8 77.7 76.2 16.3    
PAT 253.7 219.3 140.5 80.6 220.3 15.2   PAT growth is attributable to revenue growth and improved EBITDA margin in Q1
                 
Key Metrics                
Volume growth (%) 36.0 8.0 90.0   -5.0     Strong volume growth of decorative paints (up 35% YoY) on a favourable base helped drive overall volumes in Q1
Realisation growth (%) 12.8 18.1 1.7   13.6     Price hike of ~3% in Q1FY23 drives overall realisation growth

Disclaimer

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