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Bank of Baroda>
  • CMP : 279.4 Chg : -2.10 (-0.75%)
  • Target : 220.0 (17.65%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 May 2023

Strong all round performance; outlook remains intact

About The Stock

Bank of Baroda is among leading PSU banks with a global loan book of ~₹ 9.7 lakh crore and has better operating metrics among PSBs.

  • Pan-India presence with ~8200 branches
  • The bank has a meaningful presence in international operations with its JVs and subsidiaries. Total ~18% of total business comes from overseas
Q4FY23

Strong quarter led by NIM expansion and lower credit cost

  • NII up 33.8% YoY at ₹ 11525 crore, NIMs up 16 bps QoQ at 3.5%
  • C/I down 324 bps YoY to 46%; provisions down 40.9% QoQ
  • PAT at ₹ 4775 crore, up 2.7x YoY, ahead of our estimate
  • GNPA down 74 bps QoQ to 3.79%, slippage ratio below 1%
What should Investors do?

BoB continues to demonstrate robust growth in business and earnings led by improvement in NIMs and lower credit cost. We believe BoB will report credit growth in line with industry growth coupled with healthy margins and steady asset quality and, thus, aid RoA of ~1%.

  • Hence, we retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the bank at ~0.9x FY25E ABV and revise our target price to ₹ 220/share from ₹ 200/share earlier.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The management is confident of in line industry growth. It aims to grow retail growth at 1.5x pace of the overall book
  • Levers to maintain margin steady at ~3.3% levels seen aiding earnings. Guidance on return ratios steady at ~1% RoA and 16-18% RoE in FY24
  • Credit cost of ~1% in the normal cycle. ECL provisioning should be restricted to 1–1.5% of advances
  • The bank has provided ₹ 500 crore and has tangible guarantee of ₹ 1000 crore in lieu of ₹ 1300 crore exposure to a stressed airline
Alternate Stock

Apart from Bank of Baroda, in our coverage we also like SBI.

  • SBI is the largest bank in India with a balance sheet size of ~₹ 53 lakh crore and also has among the best operating metrics in the PSU space
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 700

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 27,451.3 28,809.0 32,621.3 41,356.0 14.6 47,282.7 52,937.0 13.1
PPP 18,896.2 21,199.3 22,388.8 26,863.5 12.4 31,369.0 35,330.2 14.7
PAT 546.2 829.0 7,272.3 14,109.6 195.6 15,419.9 17,433.9 11.2
ABV (|) 108.7 106.7 140.1 180.8 - 212.4 239.5 -
P/E 138.9 -8.7 11.7 6.0 - 5.5 4.9 -
P/ABV 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 - 0.8 0.7 -
RoA 0.1 -0.8 0.6 1.0 - 1.0 1.0 -
RoE (%) 0.9 -13.1 8.9 15.0 - 13.9 13.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
NII 11,525 11,000 8,612 33.8 10,818 6.5   Driven by strong busines growth and yield expansion
NIM (%) 3.5 3.5 3.1 45 bps 3.4 16 bps   Led by improvement in yields
Other Income 3,466 2,901 2,522 37.4 3,552 -2.4   Fee income up 4.6% YoY; healthy recovery support other income
                 
Net Total Income 14,991 13,901 11,134 34.6 14,370 4.3    
Staff cost 3,779 3,567 2,702 39.8 3,347 12.9    
Other Operating Expenses 3,139 2,880 2,796 12.3 2,791 12.5   CI ratio better at ~46%
                 
PPP 8,073 7,454 5,635 43.3 8,232 -1.9    
Provision 1,421 2,568 3,736 -62.0 2,404 -40.9   Credit cost declined QoQ at 0.14%
PBT 6,652 4,886 1,899 250.3 5,828 14.1    
Tax Outgo 1,877 1,270 120 1,464.2 1,976 -5.0    
PAT 4,775 3,616 1,779 168.5 3,853 23.9   PAT boosted by healthy topline and lower provisions
                 
Key Metrics                
GNPA 36,764 42,323 54,059 -32.0 41,858 -12.2   Slippages remained below 1%
NNPA 8,384 8,712 13,365 -37.3 8,854 -5.3    
Advances 9,40,998 9,17,043 7,77,155 21.1 8,90,682 5.6   Loan growth driven by retail and foreign segment
Deposits 12,03,688 11,90,965 10,45,939 15.1 11,49,507 4.7   CASA ratio healthy at 42.2%

 

Q4FY23 Earnings conference call highlights

  • Banking system growth is expected at 12-13%. Management guidance – Credit growth to be in line with industry or ~100 bps better. NIM in FY24E is expected to be better or in line with margin in FY23, credit cost at 0.5%, RoA to be ~1% and RoE to be 16-18%
  • Robust growth in international book was driven by attractive NIMs during the quarter but growth is expected to moderate a bit, going ahead. Foreign business has an RoA of ~1.5% led by healthy margin and lower credit cost
  • In retail, auto, education and personal are growing at a faster pace
  • Opex was higher as wage revision provision provided to the tune of additional | 300 crore during the quarter. Excluding performance linked incentive, opex was up ~5%
  • SMA book continued to trend downwards from 0.4% to 0.32% QoQ
  • Recoveries are expected to be higher than slippages, going ahead. During the quarter, there was no sale to ARC while in FY24, the management expects four to five accounts to settle via NARCL
  • The bank has made | 500 crore provision towards its exposure to airline exposure though it is standard currently. In addition, the bank has tangible collateral security of | 1000 crore against this exposure
  • The management mentioned that even after shift to ECL provisioning norms, credit cost will be contained and there will be no impact on earnings. We expect implementation of ECL norms to result in additional provisioning of ~1-1.5% of advances
  • The bank has | 11000 crore standard stressed book with standard provision of | 5800 crore. Restructured book was down from | 18500 crore to | 16000 crore
  • Revaluation of fixed assets conducted once in every three years (as per board policy), which remains unchanged

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                      

 

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