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  • CMP : 290.0 Chg : 1.90 (0.66%)
  • Target : 170.0 (17.24%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Nov 2022

Robust performance; guidance remains steady…

About The Stock

Bank of Baroda is among leading PSU banks with a global loan book of ~₹ 8.7 lakh crore and has better operating metrics among PSBs.

  • Pan-India presence with over 8161 branches and 11461 ATMs
  • The bank has a meaningful presence in international operations with its JVs and subsidiaries. Also, ~18% of total business comes from overseas
Q2FY23

Robust earnings led by healthy topline & lower provision.

  • NII up 34.5% YoY at ₹ 10174 crore, NIMs up 31 bps QoQ at 3.33%
  • C/I up 61 bps YoY to 4       9.7%; provisions down 3.4% QoQ, 40.9% YoY
  • PAT at ₹ 3313 crore, up 58.7% YoY, ahead of our estimate
  • GNPA down 95 bps QoQ to 5.31%, R/s book at ₹ 17725 crore
What should Investors do?

Bank of Baroda has seen its stock price rising over 3x in the past two years. Healthy growth momentum coupled with improvement in margins and asset quality is expected to aid RoA and, thus, valuations.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the bank at ~0.9x FY24E ABV and revise our target price to ₹ 170/share from ₹ 160/share earlier

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Advantage of faster repricing of loans should continue in the next couple of quarters. Guidance maintained 10 bps higher at 3.2-3.25%
  • Continued growth in advances in line with industry. Any moderation in retail loan growth to be offset by gradual pick-up in corporate book growth
  • Steady CI ratio, lower credit cost to aid healthy earnings growth momentum
  • Guidance continued to remain at RoA – 1% in FY24E with an upside bias
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Bank of Baroda, in our coverage we also like SBI.

  • SBI is the largest bank in India with a balance sheet size of ~₹ 53 lakh crore and also has among the best operating metrics in the PSU space
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 700

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR _(FY22-24E)
NII 18,683.8 27,451.3 28,809.0 32,621.3 20.4 36,767.4 41,856.4 13.3
PPP 13,486.8 18,896.2 21,199.3 22,388.8 18.4 23,722.6 26,340.5 8.5
PAT 433.5 546.2 829.0 7,272.3 156.0 10,917.5 11,193.1 24.1
ABV (|) 82.7 108.7 106.7 140.1 - 169.5 184.7 -
P/E 84.8 117.5 -7.3 9.9 - 6.6 6.4 -
P/ABV 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.0 - 0.8 0.8 -
RoA 0.4 0.1 -0.8 0.6 - 0.8 0.8 -
RoE (%) 0.9 0.9 -13.1 8.9 - 11.8 10.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
NII 10,174 9,061 7,566 34.5 8,838 15.1   Driven by strong credit growth and margin expansion
NIM (%) 3.3 3.1 2.9 48 bps 3.0 31 bps   Led by improvement in yields
Other Income 1,826 1,969 3,579 -49.0 1,182 54.5   Partially aided by fee income. Treasury loss in Q2FY23
                 
Net Total Income 12,000 11,029 11,145 7.7 10,020 19.8    
Staff cost 3,183 3,208 3,114 2.2 3,043 4.6   CI ratio largely steady at 49.7%
Other Operating Expenses 2,786 2,621 2,361 18.0 2,450 13.7    
                 
PPP 6,031 5,201 5,670 6.4 4,528 33.2    
Provision 1,627 1,569 2,754 -40.9 1,685 -3.4   Credit cost steady QoQ at 0.79%
PBT 4,403 3,632 2,916 51.0 2,843 54.9    
Tax Outgo 1,090 944 828 31.6 675 61.6    
PAT 3,313 2,688 2,088 58.7 2,168 52.8   PAT boosted by healthy topline and lower provisions
                 
Key Metrics                
GNPA 46,374 51,976 59,504 -22.1 52,591 -11.8   Slippages steady QoQ at 1.77%
NNPA 9,672 12,385 19,602 -50.7 12,653 -23.6    
Advances 8,36,591 8,25,646 6,93,820 20.6 7,99,616 4.6   Loan growth driven by retail and agri book
Deposits 10,90,172 10,72,267 9,59,483 13.6 10,32,714 5.6   CASA ratio down to 39.83%

 

Q2FY23 Earnings conference call highlights

  • Interest income consisted of ~20 bps one off led by upgrade of one large account and benefit of swaps
  • Advantage of faster repricing of loans should continue for next two quarters. NIM guided to increase 10 bps in FY23 compared to FY22
  • MCLR linked loans are still to witness substantial transmission of hike in interest rate. EBLR – 28%. MCLR – 53%, Others – 19%
  • Slippage ratio guided at 1.5-2% for FY23E. Accordingly, credit cost guidance revised from 1.25-1.5% earlier to 1-1.25%, led by better than expected trend in asset quality
  • Guidance continued to remain at RoA – 1% in FY24E with an upside bias
  • Restructured book was at | 17725 crore, which is ~2.5% of total gross domestic advances. | 808 crore write off in Q2FY23
  • Retail loan grew at a robust pace due to pent up demand. Some moderation cannot be ruled out ahead. Corporate segment to propel growth in H2FY23
  • New wage bill could have an impact of | 200-300 crore per quarter
  • LCR was at 135%
  • ECLGS – | 10,453 crore; total disbursement at | 14000 crore

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.          

 

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