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  • CMP : 2,364.8 Chg : -1.90 (-0.08%)
  • Target : 2,650.0 (24.41%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 Mar 2022

Margin pressure to ease; portfolio attributes intact…

About The Stock

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) is the leader in the niche tyre segment used in heavy machinery for mining and agriculture purposes.

  • Exports form lion’s share of its sales at ~80% of its revenues
  • Channel mix: replacement account for ~70% while OEM share is pegged at ~26%. Agriculture accounts for ~64% of volumes with OTR share at ~32%
  • It has consistently operated with high (>20%) margins & return ratios
Q3FY22 Results

BIL reported muted Q3FY22 results.

  • Standalone net sales for the quarter stood at ₹ 2,030 crore, down 1% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins in Q3FY22 came in at 21.8%, down 352 bps QoQ
  • PAT stood at ₹ 328.6 crore, down 12.9% QoQ, hold up by higher other income & lower tax rate
What should Investors do?

BIL’s share price has run up ~30% CAGR over the past five years, (~₹ 580 levels in Feb’2017), thereby vastly outperforming Nifty Auto index

  • We retain BUY on BIL amid robust demand prospects, healthy financials
Target Price Valuation

We value BIL at revised target price of ₹ 2,650 i.e. 32x P/E on FY23-24E average EPS of ₹82.9 (earlier target price ₹ 2,900).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Ambition to double global market share to ~10% vs. ~5-6% currently
  • Robust demand across user segments (Agri, OTR) to propel volume growth
  • Aggressive brownfield expansion and backward integration in place, along with optimum capacity utilization to drive Sales, PAT growth at CAGR of 21.3%, 15.3% over FY21-24E. Margins are seen at ~26% in FY24E
  • Net debt free b/s, double-digit return ratios & strong cash generation
Alternate Stock Idea

In our auto ancillary coverage we like JK Tyre.

  • Walking the talk on b/s deleveraging, sweating of assets & capital efficiency
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 170

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 5 year CAGR (FY16-21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Net Sales 5,244.5 4,782.5 5,757.9 12.2 8,024.1 9,022.2 10,283.8 21.3
EBITDA 1,311.1 1,249.3 1,785.5 10.6 1,979.9 2,184.5 2,649.8 14.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 25.0 26.1 31.0 - 24.7 24.2 25.8 -
Net Profit 782.0 945.0 1,155.4 15.3 1,407.2 1,435.3 1,770.1 15.3
EPS (₹) 40.5 48.9 59.8 - 72.8 74.2 91.6 -
P/E 52.4 43.6 35.6 - 29.3 28.7 23.3 -
RoNW (%) 16.7 18.8 19.2 - 20.6 18.3 19.5 -
RoCE (%) 16.7 14.4 19.3 - 17.6 17.4 20.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY22 Results:

  • Balkrishna Industries (BIL) reported muted performance in Q3FY22.
  • Standalone revenues at | 2,030 crore were down 1% QoQ. Tonnage for the quarter was down ~3% QoQ to 70,320 MT
  • EBITDA in Q3FY22 stood at ₹ 443.4 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 21.8%. Gross margin decline was sharp at 230 bps QoQ while other expenses also rose ~130 bps QoQ., impacting EBITDA margins
  • Consequent PAT for the quarter came in at ₹ 328.6 crore, down 12.9% QoQ. Net profitability was higher buoyed by higher other income at ₹111.6 crore largely driven by forex gains (~₹80.24 crores).
  • The company announced a special dividend of ₹12/ share on the occasion of Diamond Jubilee along with 3rd interim dividend for FY22E at ₹ 4/share.
Q3FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights 
  • BIL took price hike of 2-3% in Q3FY22 and has not taken any other price hike since then, management is however in discussion for the same. The company has been able to pass on the higher raw material prices, however the under recovery has been in relation to shipping, bunched up marketing spends, power & fuel costs which adversely impacted EBITDA margins. Going forward raw material inflation is further seen at 2-3% in Q4FY22 with margins expected to remain largely stable.
  • Production run rate to be at current level i.e. 70-75k with capacity utilization at close to 100%.
  • Marketing spends for fiscal year to be ~₹120-130 crores vs ₹100-110 crores earlier & is expected to be at this level going forward.
  • Management guided that margins in replacement & OEM segment are at similar levels.
  • Production during Q3FY22 stood at 70,300 tons and for 9MFY22 stood at 2,13,000 tons.
  • Carbon black realisation last quarter was ~₹95/ kg & is presently prevailing at ~₹100/kg.
  • At present Bhuj plant’s captive power consumption is ~80% which will increase to 90% post completion of planned expansion, whereas for other manufacturing sites consumption stood at ~40%.
  • Carbon black outside (third party) sales for Q3FY22 was at ~17% of capacity & ~<3% of revenue for self-consumption. 
  • The company retained long term margin guidance of 28-30%.
  • For Q3FY22, cost of natural rubber (per kg) stood at ₹ 160. BIL expecting another 2-3% QoQ raw material cost increase in Q4FY22E.
  • The current achievable capacity is 285,000 MT p.a. including the NEW Waluj plant that commenced operations in September 2021. The Brownfield capex at Bhuj will add 50,000 MT p.a. The OLD Waluj revamped plant will add 25,000 MT p.a. The achievable capacity by end of FY23 will be 360,000 MT p.a.

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