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Balkrishna Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,444.6 Chg : -16.0 (-0.65%)
  • Target : 2,170.0 (5.34%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Feb 2023

Muted margin, volume commentary amidst uncertain global economic cues, recovery seen from FY24E…

About The Stock

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) is the leader in the niche tyre segment used in heavy machinery for mining and agriculture purposes.

  • Exports form lion’s share of its sales at ~80% of its revenues
  • Channel mix: replacement account for ~70% while OEM share is pegged at ~28%. Agriculture accounts for ~63% of volumes with OTR share at ~34%
  • It has consistently operated with high margins & return ratios
Q3FY23

BIL reported dismal set of numbers for Q3FY23.

  • Standalone net sales for the quarter stood at ₹2,142 crore, down 20.8% QoQ
  • Tonnage for the quarter stood at 66,480 tonnes, down 15.7% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins in Q3FY23 came in at 12%, down 443 bps QoQ
  • PAT stood at ₹ 99.6 crore, down 75% QoQ, impacted by notional forex loss.
What should Investors do?

BIL’s share price has grown 13.5% CAGR over the past five years, (~₹ 1,123 levels in Feb 2018), vastly outperforming the Nifty Auto index

  • We downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD amidst slower than expected margin and volume recovery amidst uncertain global economic cues.
Target Price and Valuation

Introducing FY25E, we now value BIL at revised target price of ₹ 2,170 i.e., 25x P/E on average FY24-25E EPS of ~₹87 (earlier TP ₹ 2,200).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Demand recovery in key international markets and across segments as recession fears fades away. Strong manufacturing capabilities and distribution network to result in 5.5% sales volume CAGR over FY22-25E.
  • Persistent focus to attain global market share of ~10% vs. ~5-6% currently
  • With thoughtful capacity expansion, cost efficiencies & backward integration at bay we expect Sales, PAT to grow at a CAGR of 11.5%, 9.5% respectively over FY22-25E. Margins are seen recovering to 24% in FY25E.
  • Strong cash flow generation of ~₹1,000+ crores amid calibrated capex spend to result in healthy FCF generation and consequent B/S deleveraging
Alternate Stock Ideas

Leaving aside Balkrishna Industries, we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,665

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 4,782.5 5,757.9 8,266.7 0.2 9,686.6 10,433.0 11,455.7 0.1
EBITDA 1,249.3 1,785.5 1,975.5 0.1 1,475.0 2,298.7 2,744.7 0.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 26.1 31.0 23.9 - 15.2 22.0 24.0 -
Net Profit 945.0 1,155.4 1,410.7 0.1 1,007.9 1,499.2 1,853.9 0.1
EPS (₹) 48.9 59.8 73.0 - 52.1 77.5 95.9 -
P/E 42.1 34.5 28.2 - 39.5 26.6 21.5 -
RoNW (%) 18.8 19.2 20.4 - 13.2 17.3 18.7 -
RoCE (%) 14.4 19.3 15.9 - 8.6 15.8 19.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3FY23 Results:

  • Balkrishna Industries (BIL) reported dismal performance in Q3FY23.
  • Standalone revenues at | 2,142 crore, down 20.8% QoQ. Tonnage for the quarter was down ~15.7% QoQ to 66,480 MT
  • EBITDA in Q3FY23 stood at | 257.3 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 12% down 443 bps QoQ. Gross margin erosion was sharp at ~250 bps QoQ & was further aggravated by negative operating leverage.
  • Consequent PAT for the quarter came in at | 99.6 crore, down 75.3% QoQ, primarily tracking lower than expected margins and lower other income. Lower PAT was also driven by forex loss amounting to ₹88 crore reported for Q3FY23 as against profit on both QoQ as well as YoY basis.
  • The company announced an interim dividend of ₹4/ share.

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management informed about high channel inventory in key foreign market impacting margins and expects destocking to continue in Q4FY23E also, with meaningful margin recovery to extent of 300 bps to be witnessed in FY24E incorporating RM benefits. Further management expects lower raw material and freight costs, better hedge rate, better end market situation to lead margin recovery in FY24.
  • Management commentary on end demand remained steady with channel inventory dampening the overall volume off-take. Management informed about demand scenario being relatively better in North America however recession fears continue to impact demand. Overall management expects low single digit volume growth in near term (QoQ in Q4FY23).
  • During the quarter company informed about pass on of surcharge on freight cost to end customers leading to lower ASP’s by ~6% QoQ. However steep reduction in freight cost led to slight recovery in overall margins and expects this benefit to continue further till Q1FY24E.
  • Management informed that domestic demand being stable during Q3FY23.
  • Inventory at dealer levels is presently prevailing at ~2.5 months vs ~3 months as of Q2FY23 end with target to reduce it to ~2 months.
  • Company has done ~|1,300 crores of capex in 9MFY23E with minimal capex expected in Q4FY23E. Further company plans to spend ~|300-400 crores in FY24E.
  • BIL has not taken price hike, nor did it moderated its prices during Q3FY23.
  • Carbon black constituted ~5% of sales in Q3FY23
  • Current RM inventory stood at 60 days with target of reducing it to 45 days.
  • Average rate of borrowing on short - long term debt stood at 3.5%-4%.
  • Net debt as of 31st December, 2022 stood at ~|1,350 crores.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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