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  • CMP : 2,396.6 Chg : 19.50 (0.82%)
  • Target : 2,550.0 (18.60%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Near term blip amidst unchanged long term guidance

About The Stock

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) is the leader in the niche tyre segment used in heavy machinery for mining and agriculture purposes.

  • Exports form lion’s share of its sales at ~80% of its revenues
  • Channel mix: replacement account for ~69% while OEM share is pegged at ~28%. Agriculture accounts for ~66% of volumes with OTR share at ~31%
  • It has consistently operated with high (>20%) margins & return ratios
Q1FY23

BIL reported muted set of numbers for Q1FY23.

  • Standalone net sales for the quarter stood at ₹ 2,646 crore, up 11.5% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins in Q1FY23 came in at 17.2%, down 380 bps QoQ
  • PAT stood at ₹ 319.7 crore, down 14% QoQ.
What should Investors do?

BIL’s share price has run up ~25% CAGR over the past five years, (~₹ 795 levels in Aug 2017), thereby vastly outperforming Nifty Auto index

  • We retain BUY, unfazed by short term pressure on volumes, margins amidst unchanged ambition of 10% global market share & 28-30% margin profile
Target Price and Valuation

We value BIL at revised target price of ₹ 2,550 i.e. 26x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹98.3 (earlier target price ₹ 2,475).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Unchanged ambition to attain global market share of 10% vs. 5-6% currently
  • Steady retail demand across most of the geographies with price competitive product profile given somewhat uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
  • With brownfield expansion, cost efficiencies & backward integration in place amid healthy demand prospects we expect Sales, PAT to grow at a CAGR of 20.5%, 16.1% over FY22-24E. Margins are seen at 23.5% in FY24E.
  • Strong cash flow generation amid calibrated capex spend to result in healthy FCF generation and consequent retaining net debt free B/S by FY24E
Alternate Stock Ideas

In our auto coverage, we also like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1500

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 5,244.5 4,782.5 5,757.9 8,266.7 16.9 10,486.1 12,003.5 20.5
EBITDA 1,311.1 1,249.3 1,785.5 1,975.5 11.8 1,909.6 2,816.1 19.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 25.0 26.1 31.0 23.9 - 18.2 23.5 -
Net Profit 782.0 945.0 1,155.4 1,410.7 14.6 1,262.4 1,899.9 16.1
EPS (₹) 40.5 48.9 59.8 73.0 - 65.3 98.3 -
P/E 53.1 44.0 36.0 29.5 - 32.9 21.9 -
RoNW (%) 16.7 18.8 19.2 20.4 - 16.0 20.4 -
RoCE (%) 16.7 14.4 19.3 15.9 - 13.1 19.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q1FY23 Results:

  • Balkrishna Industries (BIL) reported muted performance in Q1FY23.
  • Standalone revenues at | 2,646 crore, up 11.5% QoQ. Tonnage for the quarter was up ~7.8% QoQ to 83,153 MT
  • EBITDA in Q1FY23 stood at | 455.5 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 17.2% down 380 bps QoQ. Gross margin erosion was sharp at ~150 bps QoQ while other expenses (driven by higher freight costs) were up ~206 bps QoQ, resulting in overall decline in margin trajectory.
  • Consequent PAT for the quarter came in at | 319.7 crore, down 14% QoQ, aided by higher than anticipated other income
    • The company announced an interim dividend of ₹4/ share. Further, with environmental clearance in place, the company expects the commissioning of the 2nd phase of carbon black project along with power plant during Q3FY23. The advanced carbon black project of 30,000 MTPA will be commissioned in Q4FY23

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management commentary on demand remained strong despite inflationary scenario in US & heatwave and adverse economic environment in Europe. However, demand is likely to suffer a bit in Q2FY23 but with overall brand image remaining strong.
  • Total production capacity for FY23 is expected to be 3.6 lakh MTPA with sales guidance retained at 3.2- to 3.3 lakh MTPA for FY23.
  • Currency depreciation on INR to US would have negligible effect in terms of absolute cost as US$ imports are covered by equivalent US$ exports. Euro effective hedge rate for FY23 is ~₹85/€.
  • Margin performance was muted largely on account of RM inflation, freight rates & power cost. Logistic cost nearly doubled ~2x on YoY basis. The company also front loaded some of the brand building expenses with total annual expenses pegged at ~₹ 120-130 crore; ~40% accounted in Q1FY23
  • Capex for FY23 is expected to be ~₹900 crores and is in line with previous commentary.
  • Raw Material prices have remained at elevated levels & is expected to cool done in Q4FY22 due to ~1-2 months’ inventory lying with company and current orders in transit.
  • Out of total export orders ~50% of orders are on CIF basis and of that ~50% hike in freight cost is absorbed by company and 50% is passed through.
  • To offset rising input cost company has taken ~5% hike during Q1FY23 & with adverse environment company is unable to take any hike till date in Q2FY23. BKT tyres are cheaper than competition and management expects the same to continue going forward.
  • For Q1FY23, cost of natural rubber (per kg) stood at | 160 and steel wire stood at ~₹110 per kg.

  • Net debt stood at ~₹750 crores whereas gross debt stood at ~₹2750 crores.

Disclaimer

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