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  • CMP : 8,999.0 Chg : 168.0 (1.90%)
  • Target : 4,180.0 (6.50%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jul 2022

Steady performance; mellow EV commitment…

About The Stock

Bajaj Auto (BAL) is the 2nd largest motorcycle manufacturer and largest 3-W OEM domestically (FY22 market share at 18.2%, 61.5% respectively).

  • Exports comprised ~58% of FY22 volumes; 2W:3W mix at ~89:11 (overall)
  • Strong b/s with ~₹ 21,260 crore cash on books (FY22), history of ~20% return ratios & one of the highest dividend yields among Nifty stocks
Q1FY23

BAL reported steady performance in Q1FY23

  • Net revenues for the quarter stood at ₹ 8,005 crore, broadly flat QoQ 
  • EBITDA in Q1FY23 was at ₹1,297 crores, margins:16.2% (down 90 bps QoQ)
  • Reported PAT was down 20% QoQ to ₹ 1,173 crore, primarily driven by decline in margins as well as high base of Q4FY22 (exceptional gains)
What should Investors do?

BAL’s stock price has grown ~7% CAGR (from ₹2,830 levels in July, 2017) over 5 years outperforming the broader Nifty Auto index.

  • We maintain HOLD rating on BAL primarily tracking lower than anticipated recovery in domestic 3-W sales volume and delay in electric 3-W launch.
Target Price Valuation

Upgrading our estimates, we now value BAL at ₹ 4,180 on SOTP basis (16x PE on FY24E Core EPS, stake in PMAG; previous target: ₹3,950).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Ramp-up of volumes in the electric 2-W space amidst commissioning of new facility (capacity ~5 lakh units) & expansion of network from 27 to 100 cities. Successful completion of E-3W trials with launch planned soon.
  • With improved demand scenario domestically and steady improvement in supply chain we expect volume, net sales CAGR of ~8.1%, ~17.5% over FY22-24E (2-W CAGR ~7.5%, 3-W CAGR ~13.9%)
  • Margins to reach ~18% levels over FY23-24E amid cooling of input prices and positive operating leverage & healthy export realization.
  • Increasing share of margin accretive spare parts revenue & premiumisation 
Alternate Stock Ideas

In our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,500

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 30,250.0 29,918.6 27,741.1 33,144.7 8.8 41,476.5 45,797.9 17.5
EBITDA 4,982.0 5,096.2 4,928.5 5,258.7 3.5 7,256.4 8,233.9 25.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 16.5 17.0 17.8 15.9 - 17.5 18.0 -
Net Profit 4,675.1 5,100.0 4,554.6 5,018.9 5.6 6,183.5 6,997.7 18.1
EPS (₹) 161.6 176.2 157.4 173.4 - 218.4 247.2 -
P/E 24.3 22.3 24.9 22.6 - 18.0 15.9 -
RoNW (%) 19.9 25.6 18.1 17.6 - 24.5 26.3 -
RoCE (%) 21.1 23.9 18.2 18.4 - 27.1 29.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results:

  • Net sales came in at | 8,005 crore. Blended ASPs for the quarter stood at | 82,210/unit, up 5.2% QoQ. Total volumes for the quarter were at 9.3 lakh units, down 4.4% QoQ with exports share in volumes pegged at 62%
  • Reported EBITDA in Q1FY23 was at | 1,297 crore, with EBITDA margins coming in at 16.2% (down 92 bps QoQ). Muted margins was on account of higher employee expense which rose 24% QoQ amidst lower than anticipated decline in gross margins (at ~30 bps QoQ vs. our expectation of ~100 bps).
  • Consequent reported PAT was down 20% QoQ to | 1,173 crore. PAT decline looks optically higher due to onetime exceptional gain of ₹315 crores.

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Q1FY23 performance was adversely affected due to constrained supply chain as guided during previous call and chip shortfall was ~20-25% consequently affecting domestic sales. However, supply still lags the demand. Demand recovery in urban & semi-urban area out run rural demand.
  • In domestic market May 2022 was worst hit by chip shortage with inventory levels being <3 weeks (i.e. below average levels of 5-6 weeks), however company is witnessing gradual improvement in demand with July month being better than June & inventories being channelled to normal levels.
  • Demand from export market remained stable despite the fact that company has taken hike in export market ahead of competition depicting strong desire for its products like Pulsar & Dominar which are gaining traction in key export markets like Latin America & Africa.
  • On EV front Bajaj Chetak has expanded to 27 cities in Q1FY23 vs 12 cities till Q4FY22 with ultimate target of expanding to 100 cities backed by strong demand. Also company has commissioned EV manufacturing plant in Pune with 0.5 million capacities for E-2W. Management guided it is focusing for quality and would double sales in coming quarter but will not run behind market share so as to ensure quality experience for customers.
  • Company’s product on E3W front which was awaited by the market has finally being under trial in Delhi & Pune region and would be launched near festive season but would be for selected cities only and would follow same cautious path as E-2W.
  • Export outlook remains strong with double digit growth in FY23 aided by strong demand products in 125-250cc with long term target placed at doubling export business over a five-year period.
  • Spare part revenue for Q1FY23 stood at ₹1,035 crores vs ₹980 crores in Q4FY22. Total Exports stood at ₹4,270 crores. Africa still retains company’s major export market with ~50-55% of export share.
  • BAL focused on selling premium model to customers amid constrained chip supply.

  • Company does not intend to take any price cut in export market due to softening of material and would observe competitors for the same.

  • Exports to Shri Lanka stopped ~12-18 months back with current scenario not affecting company’s performance as exports were <1% back then.

  • Raw material costs are softening but still remain at elevated levels & company expects increase to the tune of ~1-1.5% in Q2FY23.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets) and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.            

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