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Bajaj Auto Ltd>
  • CMP : 8,697.1 Chg : -98.70 (-1.12%)
  • Target : 3,950.0 (2.60%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Apr 2022

Healthy performance; seen tapering off going forward

About The Stock

Bajaj Auto (BAL) is the 2nd largest motorcycle manufacturer and largest 3-W OEM domestically (FY22 market share at 18.2%, 61.5% respectively).

  • Exports comprised ~58% of FY22 volumes; 2W:3W mix at ~89:11 (overall)
  • Strong b/s with ~₹ 23,160 crore cash on books (FY22), history of ~20% return ratios & one of the highest dividend yields among Nifty stocks
Q4FY22

BAL reported healthy performance in Q4FY22

  • Net revenues for the quarter stood at ₹ 7,975 crore, down 11.6% QoQ             
  • EBITDA in Q4FY22 stood at ₹1,366 crore; margins: 17.1% (up 190 bps QoQ)
  • Reported PAT was up 21% QoQ to ₹ 1,469 crore, supported by exceptional gains amounting to ₹ 315 crore (prior period incentive receivable)
What should Investors do?

BAL’s stock price has grown ~5.3% CAGR (from ₹2,865 levels in April, 2017) over 5 years outperforming the Nifty Auto index.

We maintain HOLD rating on the stock primarily tracking management’s conservative stance on EV transition amidst prominence in export markets. 

Target Price Valuation

Rolling over our valuations, we value BAL at ₹ 3,950 on SOTP basis (18x PE on FY24E Core EPS, stake in PMAG; previous target: ₹3,370).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Aggressive push, capex spends and adoption of new technology landscape
  • Ramping up of electric 2-W production; electric 3-W launch in June 2022.
  • We expect volume, net sales CAGR of ~8.5%, ~7.7% over FY23-24E (2-W CAGR ~8.5%, 3-W CAGR ~8.8%) aided by steady state export demand
  • Margins to lie in the current range of ~15-16% over FY23-24E.
  • Increasing share of margin accretive spare parts revenue, with change in strategy which is more retailer focus now vs. distributor focus in the past
New Stock Ideas

In our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,045

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 30,250.0 29,918.6 27,741.1 33,144.7 8.8 38,096.9 41,434.9 7.7
EBITDA 4,982.0 5,096.2 4,928.5 5,258.7 3.5 5,895.1 6,623.3 8.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 16.5 17.0 17.8 15.9 - 15.5 16.0 -
Net Profit 4,675.1 5,100.0 4,554.6 5,018.9 5.6 5,307.1 5,906.9 5.6
EPS (₹) 161.6 176.2 157.4 173.4 - 183.4 204.1 -
P/E 23.7 21.7 24.3 22.1 - 20.9 18.8 -
RoNW (%) 19.9 25.6 18.1 17.6 - 19.1 20.5 -
RoCE (%) 21.1 23.9 18.2 18.4 - 19.9 21.6 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • Net sales came in at | 7,975 crore. Blended ASPs for the quarter stood at | 79,129/unit, up 6.2% QoQ. Total volumes for the quarter were at 9.8 lakh units, down 17.3% QoQ with exports share in volumes pegged at 60%
  • Reported EBITDA in Q4FY22 was at | 1,366 crore, with EBITDA margins coming in at 17.1% (up 191 bps QoQ). The real surprise came in the form of gross margin expansion which rose ~280 bps QoQ.
  • Consequent reported PAT was up 21% QoQ to | 1,469 crore which included one-time exceptional gain of ₹315 crores (prior period incentive receivable).

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • BAL witnessed robust annual margin & profit with exports being strong and steady in all quarters. Further market share increased by ~2% in FY22 across all regions such as Africa, Latin America, Europe & Asia.
  • Management commentary on exports remained strong. BAL has large order book for Dominar for North American, European & Asian region.
  • BAL is focusing on selling premium model to customers to improve realization with example of Pulsar NS 125 which is ~22% costlier than regular variant and comprise ~5% of 125 CC segment sales.
  • Domestic 3W share increased to ~70% at the retail level, highest ever for BAL with CNG segment market share pegged at  ~77%.
  • On EV front BAL expanded chetaks network to 12 cities from 8 cities in Q3FY22. Further launch of E-3W will be in June 2022 with launch planned in few cities only i.e. cautiously. Overall management foresees next 18 months as capability building across electric segment in 2-W/3-W; low speed/high speed as well as fixed battery/battery swapping technology.
  • Raw material costs are expected to increase in Q1FY23 to the tune of ~3% with price hike amounting to ~1% taken starting April 2022.
  • Export outlook remains strong with double digit growth in FY23 with 5-year target placed at doubling export business (FY20-25).
  • Exports to SriLanka remained limited at <1%. Exports to Nepal for quarter was at ~5,000 units (2W & 3W combined).
  • Spare part penetration has reached to ~18% in FY22 vs ~14% over the past 2 years with target to reach ~20% going forward.
  • Africa, Latin America, RoW account for ~50-55%,~20%, ~25% of export sales respectively. Malaysia & Philippines still to recover to pre-Covid levels where as other regions have surpassed their pre-Covid sales.
  • Spare part sales for Q4FY22 stood at ₹980 crore with domestic & export mix at 80:20. Export revenue for Q4FY22 stood at $500 million (~₹4,000 crore).
  • E-2W production was impacted due to limited chip supply.

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets) and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.            

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