loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 8,999.0 Chg : 168.0 (1.90%)
  • Target : 3,910.0 (9.52%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 Nov 2022

Steady performance; gradual volume recovery seen…

About The Stock

Bajaj Auto (BAL) is the 2nd largest motorcycle manufacturer and largest 3-W OEM domestically (FY22 market share at 18.2%, 61.5% respectively).

  • Exports comprised ~58% of FY22 volumes; 2W:3W mix at ~89:11 (overall)
  • Strong b/s with ~₹ 15,500 crore cash on books (H1FY23), history of ~20% return ratios & one of the highest dividend yields among Nifty stocks
Q2FY23

BAL reported steady performance in Q2FY23

  • Net revenues in Q2FY23 came in at ₹ 10,203 crore, up 27.5% QoQ      .
  • Blended ASPs for the quarter stood at ₹ 86,107/unit, up 3.5% QoQ with total volumes in Q2FY23 at 11.5 lakh units, up 23.3% QoQ. Exports share in total volumes for the quarter was pegged at 40% vs. 62% in Q1FY23.
  • EBITDA in Q2FY23 was at ₹1,759 crores, margins:17.2% (up 104 bps QoQ)
  • PAT was up 30% QoQ to ₹ 1,530 crore,       supported by higher other income.
What should Investors do?

BAL’s stock price has grown ~1.5% CAGR (from ₹3,300 levels in Oct’17) over 5 years underperforming the broader Nifty Auto index.

  • We maintain HOLD rating on BAL primarily tracking slower pace of volume recovery in both domestic and export markets, delay in Electric -3W launch.
Target Price and Valuation

Revising our estimates, we now value BAL at ₹ 3,910 on SOTP basis (16x PE on FY24E Core EPS, stake in PMAG; previous target: ₹4,180).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Ramp-up of volumes in the electric 2-W space & expansion of network to 100 cities with expansion to 65 cities by FY23 end from current ~40 cities.
  • Successful completion of E-3W trials with launch expected by FY23E end.
  • With gradual recovery in sales volume and steady improvement in supply chain we expect volume, net sales CAGR of ~6.2%, ~13.3% over FY22-24E (2-W sales CAGR pegged at ~5.9%, 3-W sales CAGR pegged at ~8.3%)
  • Margins/RoCE to reach 18%/28% levels respectively by FY24E amid cooling of input prices, positive operating leverage & healthy export realizations.
Alternate Stock Ideas

In our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 30,250.0 29,918.6 27,741.1 33,144.7 8.8 38,083.9 42,585.0 13.3
EBITDA 4,982.0 5,096.2 4,928.5 5,258.7 3.5 6,551.6 7,670.9 20.8
EBITDA Margins (%) 16.5 17.0 17.8 15.9 - 17.2 18.0 -
Net Profit 4,675.1 5,100.0 4,554.6 5,018.9 5.6 5,663.9 6,569.3 14.4
EPS (₹) 161.6 176.2 157.4 173.4 - 200.2 232.2 -
P/E 22.1 20.3 22.7 20.6 - 17.8 15.4 -
RoNW (%) 19.9 25.6 18.1 17.6 - 22.6 25.4 -
RoCE (%) 21.1 23.9 18.2 18.4 - 24.7 28.0 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2FY23 Results:

  • Net sales came in at | 10,203 crore up 27.5% QoQ. Blended ASPs for the quarter stood at | 86,107/unit, up 3.5% QoQ. Total volumes for the quarter were at 11.5 lakh units, up 23.3% QoQ with exports share in volumes pegged at 40% vs 62% in Q1FY23. The 3-W share in volume rose ~220 bps QoQ to 11.5% in Q2FY23.
  • Reported EBITDA in Q2FY23 was at | 1,759 crore, with EBITDA margins coming in at 17.2% (up 104 bps QoQ). Healthy margins were on account of lower employee expense & other expense which declined ~130 bps & ~100 bps QoQ respectively amidst gross margins decline at ~120 bps QoQ vs. our expectation of ~15 bps margin expansion. 
  • Consequent reported PAT was up 30% QoQ to | 1,530 crore, supported by higher than anticipated other income.
  • Surplus Cash & Invts. on B/S as on 30th September, 2022 stood at ~15,500 crores, post pay-outs of ~ 7,000 crores towards dividend, buyback.

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Q2FY23 performance was record breaking in terms of top line & PAT. It was far better than Q1FY23 in terms of supply chain issues with alternate sourced well developed for chip/electronic supplies.
  • ECU supply is being near normal (~98%) to industry level however still some mismatch exists for higher end premium bikes and 3-wheelers.
  • Exports witnessed downturn in international markets due to adverse currency movement (imports becoming expensive), USD availability and adverse economic conditions globally.
  • Domestically, BAL has build-up 5 weeks of inventory for upcoming festive season and is bullish on >125cc segment amidst demand recovery in urban & semi-urban area overrunning rural demand. However, entry commuter is also witnessing some demand recovery in ongoing festive season.
  • Company’s product mix for 125cc+ segment portfolio increased to 60% in Q2FY23 vs 46% in FY20 vs. similar reading for the industry pegged at 50% and 40-42% respectively. Company will remain focused more on >125cc segment with latest CT125 cc witnessing week on week growth.
  • On the 3-W front, for the industry wholesales are at 54% of pre-Covid levels while retails are at 65% of pre-Covid levels
  • On domestic 3W front, BAL enjoys majority share in CNG segment with 80% share vs. domestic CNG 3-W penetration at ~67%. However, on electric 3W front company feels acceptability of E3W in commercial space is limited due to power requirement & value price proposition. However same is being under trial phase and trial would likely be completed by December 2022.
  • Chetak sold ~10,000 units in Q2FY23 & Management expects Q3FY22 to be better and will sustain this levels with monthly run-rate aspirations of 6,000 units per month with long term aspirations of 10,000 units per month.
  • For H1FY22 in the export markets retails were equal to shipments with shipments intentionally curtailed in the last few months to lower the dealer inventory. Company expects export volumes in Q3FFY22 to be better than Q2FY23.

  • Company is working with Egyptian government for uplifting of ban on 3W and meeting required norms. On 2W taxi ban in some regions of Africa, management guided about minimal impact on sales as on date.

  • Raw material costs are softening and company do not expect commodity led price hike in coming quarters.

  • Demand from domestic market remained healthy with healthy retails expectations in coming quarters. Management expects 2-W retails to witness single digit growth in FY23

  • New product launches in the domestic market include all black N160, CT125. While Pulsar 125 refresh is being launched now with new pulsar platform received well by customers.

  • Total Exports stood at 3,800 crores in Q2FY23.  

  • Capex outlay for FY23 is pegged at ~₹ 750 crore

  • Chetak scooter is FAME-2 compliant and meets the localisation norms; hence eligible for subsidy

  • In the sports category; Pulsar, Dominar are widely accepted in international market & contributes 21% of exports & has >40% market share in key export markets.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets) and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.            

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc. as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Read More