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  • CMP : 1,230.0 Chg : 0.20 (0.02%)
  • Target : 970.0 (24.36%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

29 Apr 2022

Axis Bank result update

Comfort on asset quality with growth pick-up

Axis Bank is the third largest private sector bank in India with a balance sheet size of ₹ 11.7 lakh crore as on March 2022.

  • The bank has a large footprint across India with 4758 branches
  • Retail and SME comprise ~68% of total loans
Q4FY22

Q4FY22 Results: Axis Bank reported a good operating performance.

  • NII up 17% YoY and 2% QoQ, NIMs down 4 bps QoQ to 3.49%
  • Provisions down 26% QoQ, PAT up 54% YoY ₹ 4118 crore
  • Loan growth at 15% YoY to ₹ 7.07 lakh crore. Retail book up 21% YoY
  • GNPA down 88 bps QoQ to 2.82%. R/s book was at 0.52%
What should Investors do?

Axis Bank’s share price has given ~8% return in the past one year. This was post some correction in the past few months. We believe its healthy capitalisation and provision buffer would aid smooth earnings traction. Also, the recent proposed Citi acquisition will give a competitive advantage by gaining market share and improve return profile of the bank.

Target Price Valuation

We value Axis Bank at ~2.3x FY24E ABV and maintain our target price at ₹ 970.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  •  Cumulative provisions of 132% of GNPA provide comfort on asset quality and earnings

  •  Strong capitalisation levels (CRAR at 18.5%, Tier-1 at 16.3%) in place to support future growth

  • Fund raising for CITI acquisition possible as time arrives

New Stock Ideas

Apart from Axis, in our coverage we also like Kotak Bank.

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR (FY19-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR  (FY22-24E)
NII 21708 25206 29239 33132 15% 39323 47228 19%
PPP 19005 23438 25702 24742 9% 31570 38454 25%
PAT 4677 1627 6588 13025 41% 16152 19524 22%
ABV (|) 215.4 267.9 308.8 350.0   396.8 416.7  
P/E 42.9 135.3 36.3 18.4   14.8 12.2  
P/ABV 3.6 2.9 2.5 2.2   2.0 1.9  
RoA 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.2   1.4 1.5  
RoE 7.2 2.1 7.1 12.0   13.3 14.8

 

 

 

Quarterly Variance Table

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 8,819 9,193 7,555 16.7 8,653 1.9 Sequential NII growth subdued with NIM contraction
NIM (%) 3.49 3.39 3.56 -7 bps 3.53 -4 bps  
Other Income 4,223 3,952 4,668 -9.5 3,840 10.0 Other income growth driven by growth in fee income
               
Net Total Income 13,042 13,145 12,223 6.7 12,493 4.4  
Staff cost 1,887 2,055 1,668 13.1 1,939 -2.7  
Other Operating Expenses 4,690 4,612 3,691 27.1 4,393 6.8 Increase due to spends on tech and digital transformations
               
PPP 6,466 6,478 6,865 -5.8 6,162 4.9 operating profit decline slightly disappointed as NIM moderates
Provision 987 1,354 3,295 -70.0 1,335 -26.0 Decline due to lower slippage
PBT 5,479 5,123 3,570 53.5 4,827 13.5  
Tax Outgo 1,361 1,281 893 52.5 1,212 12.2  
PAT 4,118 3,843 2,677 53.8 3,614 13.9 Ahead of estimates due to lower provisions
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 21,822 24,000 25,315 -13.8 23,301 -6.3  
NNPA 5,512 6,643 6,994 -21.2 6,513 -15.4  
Credit 7,07,696 7,12,736 6,14,399 15.2 6,64,866 6.4 Driven by retail and SME book
Deposit 8,21,721 8,17,970 6,97,986 17.7 7,71,670 6.5 CASA up 16% YoY 

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