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  • CMP : 1,229.8 Chg : 5.10 (0.42%)
  • Target : 1,100.0 (17.90%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jan 2023

Robust performance; traction in retail segment key

About The Stock

Axis Bank is the third largest private sector bank in India with a balance sheet size of ₹ 12.2 lakh crore as on December 2022.

  • The bank has a large footprint across India with 4849 branches
  • Retail and SME comprise ~67% of total loans
Q3FY23

Beat estimates with a robust operational performance.

  • Loan growth at 14.6% YoY to ₹ 7.6 lakh crore. Retail book up 17% YoY
  • NII up 32.4% YoY, 10.6% QoQ, NIMs up 30 bps QoQ to 4.26%
  • Despite higher provisions (credit cost at 95 bps), PAT grew 61.9% YoY
  • GNPA down 12 bps QoQ to 2.38%. R/s book was at 0.30% of GCA
What should Investors do?

Axis Bank’s stock has given ~1.4x returns over the past two years. Continued strong growth coupled with margin expansion to aid return ratios and sustainability of performance to drive valuation ahead.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

Rolling to FY25E, we value the bank at ~2.2x FY25E ABV and revise our target price from ₹ 1000 to ₹ 1100.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Credit growth guidance of >5-6% compared to industry growth is positive. Sustainable liabilities to remain key
  • With improving asset mix, focus high yielding book and repricing benefit to aid margins trajectory
  • Target of ~2% cost to asset and healthy provision buffer provide comfort on earnings volatility
  • Capitalisation levels (CRAR at 19.5%, tier I at 16%) strong, though acquisition of Citi assets could assert pressure on RoA and CaR in near term
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Axis, in our coverage we also like Kotak Bank.

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank is a powerful banking franchise with strong promoter led management. It has a presence across financial services value chain
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2175

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR (FY19-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
NII 25,206.2 29,239.1 33,132.2 15.1 42,391.1 48,890.4 58,469.3 20.8
PPP 23,438.1 25,702.2 24,742.0 9.2 32,356.6 37,137.6 44,583.9 21.7
PAT 1,627.2 6,588.5 13,025.5 40.7 21,272.3 24,184.1 28,234.0 29.4
ABV (|) 267.9 308.8 347.8 - 413.6 448.7 495.0 -
P/E 161.8 43.4 22.0 - 13.5 11.8 10.1 -
P/ABV 3.5 3.0 2.7 - 2.3 2.1 1.9 -
RoA 0.2 0.7 1.2 - 1.7 1.7 1.8 -
RoE 2.1 7.1 12.0 - 17.1 17.3 18.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 11,459 10,765 8,653 32.4 10,360 10.6 Driven by healthy business traction & NIM expansion
NIM (%) 4.26 4.09 3.53 73 bps 3.96 30 bps Interest rate transmission & change in asset mix aided uptick
Other Income 4,665 4,345 3,840 21.5 3,941 18.4 Retail fee income up 30% YoY and 8% QoQ
               
Net Total Income 16,125 15,110 12,493 29.1 14,301 12.7  
Staff cost 2,281 2,239 1,939 17.7 2,167 5.3  
Other Operating Expenses 4,566 4,920 4,393 3.9 4,419 3.3 C/I down to 42.5% bps QoQ to 46%
               
PPP 9,277 7,951 6,162 50.6 7,716 20.2  
Provision 1,438 692 1,335 7.7 550 161.5 Credit cost up to 0.95% vs 0.74% in Q2FY23
PBT 7,840 7,259 4,827 62.4 7,166 9.4  
Tax Outgo 1,987 1,815 1,212 63.9 1,837 8.2  
PAT 5,853 5,444 3,614 61.9 5,330 9.8 Healthy topline aided PAT growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 19,961 20,971 23,301 -14.3 19,894 0.3 Fresh slippages increased 13% QoQ 
NNPA 3,830 3,582 6,513 -41.2 3,996 -4.1  
Credit 7,62,075 7,68,918 6,64,866 14.6 7,30,875 4.3 Corporate segment was a major contributor sequentially
Deposit 8,48,173 8,41,892 7,71,670 9.9 8,10,807 4.6 CASA deposits grew 10% YoY; CASA ratio at ~45%

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Guidance – credit growth of >5-6% of industry growth, RoE of ~18%, cost to assets at ~2% in the medium term. The management was cautious on secured retail disbursements
  • Also, ~22% and 39% book is linked to MCLR and repo. Hence, further margin expansion is likely. During the quarter, margin expansion was driven by asset mix, declining share of RIDF bonds and partly by improvement in average CASA
  • Opex breakup: 12% business volume, 40% tech led and 30% wage related expenses. Unlikely to have major impact on opex due to CITI acquisition
  • In corporate segment, spreads are improving since a couple of quarters
  • One-time/prudent items impacted slippages by ~22 bps and credit cost by ~11 bps during the quarter (provisions of | 340 crore)
  • The bank has recovered | 608 crore from already written off accounts. The cumulative provisions were at | 11633 crore (standard + additional non NPA)
  • There was no sale to ARC during the quarter
  • Issued 10.4 lakh new credit cards during Q3FY23 while incremental share in spends was ~9.5%
  • For Citi Bank deal, CCI approval is in place and the transaction is expected to be completed by March 2023

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com. Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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